Member Info for Oiltdr

They discussed the possibility of selling renewables in the April presentation - they said that they may be too small for a standalone IPO project at this stage

We will be getting news before 25 June

Can’t add anything on the Kim note terms - however as they have drawn 1.25m subda are bound to convert them at the behest of the notice periods. Sunda are not bound to draw down the others and imo likely won’t.

I think the conversion on the balance will be soon.

Andy alluded to the fact that cash flows from January production onwards given oil prices would cover the payments for the upfront payments this year and final payments next year. My cash flow forecasts support this based on 40usd opex (although Andy confirmed opex is 30usd).

Latest broker note has. New Zealand at a carry value of 24-30usd befire production enhancements. 5m is a crazy valuation but it’s only on paper.

As expected no preemption. However I’m pretty sure they have something else in the pipeline

If all they draw down is 1.25m it’s not a major issue and like I said they will manipulate the book up 5x in due course.

On my cash flow forecasts the company likely won’t need to consider the other loan note tranches. If it does need to raise then they may be able to raise equity at higher valuation.

The stock they have forward sold needs to be bought - remember this. Prepare for the squeeze.

There is manipulation here and I know how they are doing it. However they bit the banana at both ends. Patience.

If they re playing games they will be equally aggressive when the time comes to move

Counterparty risk, they don’t currently know what the liability will be under the current facility which would need extending and they would need to raise again for any down payments . It’s extremely unlikely they would put that many eggs in one basket.

They almost certainly won’t exercise preemption

The price just seems to readjustingnfor the previously high soread. The only thing people. Wed to ask here is that if this company onky had the New Zealand acquisition would they value it at more than 8.5m given that price paid by revenues . If you think it would then you have to be bullish the stock given the other assets and progress.

On the presentation we were told OPEX was 30usd. At 100usd a barrel you have 70usd a barrel of profit/cash flow pre tax. Do the maths on a daily basis - it’s over 24m of FCF pre tax. Add in 400-500 barrels for new wells work overs etc it starts to look superb.

Don’t worry about intra day price movements in the meantime. The warrants place big supply zones above and will take a while to work through liquidity

In the coming 8-13 weeks I guarantee you there will be a turning point in the share price. When market sees drill going ahead with Finder FID and rig commitment followed up with an amended farmnout with the state but also realised that it has an asset on its books that is efffectively already paid for with revenues e market will wake up and the risking will unwind significantly.

I’m expecting the farmnout and the new acreage to be announced in the coming 4 weeks. We should enter a period of higher activity now.

Key points for me:

- in line with my own calculations, based on current oil peices it may be that there is no need to draw down the other CLNs as the cumulative cash flows from the backdated completion of January may cover it.

- drilling in Q4 considered low risk with rapid path to production if successful.

- should see rig contract just after mid year by the sounds of it in line with Finders FID. it sounds like they have it lined up already pending this. Given their own environmental approvals and the tie we know this takes AB made the valid point that it would therefore be likely that when discussed we go first before Finder.

-extension of license to follow shortly.

- they seem bullish bringing a major into the Phillipines to carry them.

Filthy

No one in their right minds hedges their entire production. They will have hedged a proportion of it.

When the market better understands the NZ deal and has certainty that the PAC is extended/rig contracted this will really fly.

I think you all need a lesson in physical crude oil sales. Physical markets are completely dislodged from the spot price

Agree with your comments Surety fully.

On Anchois , it’s clear they see this as core - with rapid payback on reduced capex.

I’ve read some absolutely stupid and bone idle posts in the last couple of days. I’ll cut through the most and tell you what’s going to happen next:

1) Finder will FID its development

2) subda will execute a farmnout with Timor Leste on amended terms that will likely see them advance the rig deposit and other lead item payments.

3) a rig contract already pre agreed but not signed will be executed allowing Sunda to drill Chudditch early 2027 and then follow on to Finder for its development well drilling.

4) Sunda will complete NZ deal. Having paid the deposit from the hard cash raise , the additional 6m will come from cash flows from the NZ asset accruing and potentially another small drawdown of the convertible.

4) the drilling in early 2027 will be paid from the balance of convertible , cash flows from NZ and if required a small raise but likely by that point at a much better price. 9m requirement will likely now be 8m approx.

Low risk explo drilling later this year which could double or treble reserves.

It’s that simple.

I’ve been buying the last couple of days

I wasn’t happy at all but I hadn’t appreciated we have not just a revenue interest but also an underlying interest in the economic value of the asset.

I also hadn’t appreciated because as usual the board are very opaque on everything in this company that the 170m is not deal specific so any indrawn facilities can be used on other assets (albeit shell would have to be happy ).

It’s clear to me the economics of the deal now look very attractive given where oil prices were when they did the deal compared to the forward curve both in terms of cash flows but also the value of the underlying asset. The development of the Angolan assets doesn’t increase their cash flows but does increase the value of the underlying asset (albeit they mentioned they could economically participate in future projects on the block to increase their interest).

It’s also clear that Anchois is moving and they consider it core.

They are also clearly seriously looking at a sale of renewables where multiples in the sector are accretive at present.

They also very clearly have at least one other deal in the pipeline - if you read the transcript they openly say they will likely announce another but reference use of funding to finance the next one - they have something but we just don’t know what it is!!