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Production

I think they will announce an acquisition on the oil and gas side in near term.

Cavendish as of today value Etana at 2p per share with no value due to risking for future revenue streams. They see the ACWA agreement, if finalised as game changing.

I have access - will see if I can find

*2026 (typo)

I think the idea is to get a string of delayed news flow out so that both companies are in very good shape valuation wise beforehand. As such I think back end of 2027 but that’s my view and not based on any knowledge.

They would be bat sh*it crazy to do it this instant and there’s a whole raft of commercial and legal issues to deal with as well that I have referenced previously.

I really are going full throttle. On acquiring production though - on that I’ll vouch for them.

For the first time in a long time I am now outright bullish at current share price. Renewables is demonstrating a world class business in development. An agreement WILL materialise shortly for further collaboration.

I believe one of the many acquisitions they are in process for for physical production is going to pay off. Production asset pricing has come down recently so there is value there.

Finally on Anchois , I think the deal you will see is increased state participation together with a local Moroccan player leaving chariot with a respectable 25pc carried share.

No not at all - as whilst it may have become more likely until it becomes certain there is no materiality that would trigger a reporting requirement

My guess is June to July drill assuming they do farmnout as takes a lot of time to diligence especially in a new territory. Also rig slots and schedules move

It’s not within their control

They will inform the market when they’re have something to say. They have some estimated dates but they are working with governments and delays are usual. Finance won’t be for a while yet.

You may find the most material price move comes from a new venture in the not too distant future.

If they have been successful in the Malaysia bid round you will almost certainly find out in January.

Q1 will be the making of this company longer term.

They are all over data rooms and printing for production has come down a lot - they are going to pull something interesting out of the bag!

I know they have two applications in Malaysia - I don’t know which although one will be the acreage next to Temaris clearly which they will almost certainly be awardsd

I think they have a farm in partner for Temaris and I think they are looking at funding options for Dewa.

I agree with most of the comments on here to a point. Sunda are the victims of the political infancy of the state as it tries to stake its claim in the region. The good news is TL has made good progress this year and this is a project of national importance.

On the flip side they let a potential partner lead them down the garden path and then in a panic did a CLN. The share price dropped 75pc and hasn’t recovered because of the message it sent to the market - ie despite the quality of the asset we can’t close a farmnout.

The risk here is dilution at current level. It would be catastrophic even in an upside drill case. There is also drill risk - look at xhariots appraisal which is a great example of an appraisal likely drilled in the wrong place based on skewed data.

There are some murmurings that the state is willing to step in temporarily but not confirmed by anyone I trust. The company ideally need to set the State Farm out aside in favour of a bigger partner who takes operator ship. Larger players want a minimum of 30pc-40pc. Outside of this a patwork job pre appraisal would work provided it’s not a CLN.

Operational news will come when it comes. Youre dealing with governments so delays aren’t negative just to be expected. Finance will run to the wire probably at the end of Q1. It will be a complicated deal to negotiate (assuming they can get someone over the line on a full blown farmnout) rather than dilutive CLNs. They will be looking to park the State Farm out and do an all encompassing farmnout in priority but if they can’t the hope is the state shows mercy on them. The huge risk is punishing equity dilution

The company is in a far worse position and operating from a position of weakness. However Timor is in a much better position and it has become clear that this well is a national imperative.

A lot going on

I think you will see a very decent farmnout in the very near term

Believe it or not, like it or not, todays RNS was highly material.

We also saw the first direct acknowledgement from a board member that they are actively seeing to buy production and barrels. We knew this but it’s the most explicit they have been.