Member Info for Oiltdr

If market is stable on Monday I’ll be buying a bucket load as simply put:

1) if a Demerger occurs I will have two shares one of which (the Demerger renewables entity) will be far higher than the current share price.

2) bolted onto this directors expect the share price to be far higher in coming months based on what they have up their sleeve.

We are all sitting on co side table losses on paper. The reason I have been pushing them to Demerger do so long is to release the value of renewables - they are highly investable with I situations as a stand-alone entity.

There is also a reason they only need 1.5m to strengthen the balance sheet right now. Plans are far more progressed than shareholders realise.

Very positive re the Demerger. Shareholders will effectly get full value for the renewables business which I have been pushing for for some time. Currently it’s valued at zero.

This is absolutely the best way to generate shareholder value. They still have to produce the goods on the gas side but I think they will be saying something on this in the not too distant future….

Again there’s no shortage of interest here but the challenge is on deal structure as they are looking for firm investment to appraise and drill other targets as well as fast track and test OBA.

Havnt a clue , however they will be charging a management charge to the sub for management time at plc level - so suspect the worst of the cash drain is over.

Two months ago they had begun discussing the industry approach again albeit with different partners due to the passage of time. However new avenues have opened up.

The issue is how to get over a big two stage process of appraisal and then development. They clearly need the data for FID and to optimise the development. I think where they will get to is they drill an appraisal well as a future producer near the first two wells as a development optimised location and scale the development over two years once the data has been analysed.

There’s now a data room so don’t know where they will end up. Will be down to economics.

There’s no shortage of interest, the difficult bit is an accelerated structure that combines the production data needs to finesse modelling for development.

Time stamp this post. Within 12 weeks you will have a forward plan for Anchois.

They also have another couple of nuggets in the next 4ish weeks.

They’ve been having discussions for 3 months so it’s not like they are starting today.

They have plenty of interest in taking it forward - not worried at all

It would be unusual for there to be compensation

In short that is what their holding company will have paid on the subs behalf. They will be capitalising it to ready a transfer as they won’t want to transfer a receivable

I have no idea where your numbers are coming from.

They will not have incurred only 15-20m on that well together with other post well and fields costs

They have simply capitalised a loan

Very true indeed - but credit has to be given for them delivering on their promises!

I’m ex BP M&A, worked for a major investment bank in O&G M&A and refinancing, two boutique firms doing the same and as an M&A specialist in a Japanese major.

Some of the comments posted in response prove the assertion made in my first paragraph.

I won’t be posting again on this forum. - good luck to all. Provided the geology/seismic assessment is accurate you won’t need it.

I don’t post often but have to chip in as my sense here is that there are a lot of inexperienced retail investors here getting their knickers in a twist and not having fully understood the commercials.

The fundamentals here are well known. Even without an upgrade in resources as a result of the appraisal well, booking 30pc upon field financing of even 30pc of the current 2C resources would be a multiple of the current price.

However, compared to 7 days ago you are commercially much further advanced:

1) what we now know is that Tkmor Leste is far more invested in this development than most had appreciated. They are effectively acting as underwriters. This is very powerful and will be even more so when they look at rapid development financing.

2) I can now tell you without any restriction that under the exclusivity arrangement Sunda was going to be left with 10pc of the field in return for the cash injection. This would still have been great on the volumes we are talking about. As such I was pretty shocked when we managed to retain 30pc of the field. This is staggering.

3) the company has raised finance with far more protections that you would ordinarily see. I can’t disclose the three institutional investors but I wouldn’t be worried. The reality is they had to raise a contingency fund in any case. Here they spread the risk on price at which they are diluted. And frankly the commercial reality is this , when you crunch the numbers on dilution even in the worst case scenario, and weigh this against the most bearish assumptions on resource uplift - you get a much better result in terms of equity value versus retaining 10pc of the field and an assumed 3-4m financing at current share prices. I have modelled this in extensive detail with base case bearish assumptions.

4) this poool of investors has completely written off the Phillipines as being insignificant. You’re wrong - and people will get caught out by this if they continue to believe it.

5) You can Never presict the timing of a signing ina. Presidential office but if it is already there you can expect this in the next 2 -3 weeks.

The 30pc retained interest is HUGELY significant. Believe it, don’t believe it, the numbers don’t lie.

To be clear the phillipines IS NOT small

Look at seascape last year - did 600pc in days/week. The market took 36 hours to review dipped and then just rallied hard.

Commercially they retained 30pc of a huge resource which hythe time they have appraised hopefully successfully will be 30pc of a huge number.

The dilution will in theory be at anspreadybof proces but likely at an overall average price higher than the current level.

The price is derailed as the appraisal is going ahead. That the national interest is involved is demonstrating how important this project is which also provides significant underwriting for future development options.

This price won’t be at this level for long.

As an aside warrants will be issued. This share will be bid up to allow for their issue and exercise. It’s the way of the world and the unspoken narrative.

Watch.

I was expecting 10-15 pc retained interest - when market realised the economics here it will rally hard