Member Info for OilSpelunker

My point exactly Robster. When they claim to be working on "doing a deal," you have to remember that to them, they are trying to save the source of their salary first and foremost and not the stock. "Stuff the equity" is the likely attitude. It would be foolish to believe anything else at this stage. There is no equity left to save anyway. I ask again - would you try to save it, or would you opt to start over with new licenses and new undiluted equity and debt? If you fib and claim the former, again, describe how it could possibly be done please. And tell us how and why it is a better option than the latter. Somebody might ring Tom Randell and ask the bloke who the CEO currently is and who, by name, is negotiating with Sberbank. My guess is that he will be unable and/or unwilling to answer these very legitimate questions, which will be yet another telltale sign of pending doom. You might also ask him how MXP's current cash burn is being funded, his salary included. It's not from oil sales, that much we know.

And BTW, OilSpelunker sponsored beatings will continue until MXP officially cries uncle in a RNS. This is likely to happen any day now.

"1) Business is in trouble and need equity, but has a plan" [sic] OK what is the plan though? Can you even hypothesize one with round numbers based on facts? Sounds familiar too. Do you think Sberbank will fall victim again? Remember, the last time they convinced a bank to do a last chance deal, Brent was over $80.00, the equity float was half what it is now, the licenses were still good, the taxes were current, the vendors were getting paid, the wells were pumping oil, the oil was being sold on the domestic and export markets, the bank accounts were unfrozen, the operating capital was adequate, NUR1 still had a chance per Halliburton and investors were being sought to finish the drill, and the debt level was at least mortgageable. MXP is just not a going concern anymore. "2) Business goes to Bank and asks for more dosh. Delivers 5 year plan to Bankers" [sic] Same answer as above, only there is no 5 year plan available. Also, what do you figure the Sberbank loan balance is up to right now with compound interest? "3) Business has some nervous backers in the backgound, Bod present the mother of all Powerpoint presentations to win backers over." [sic] OK but what is in the presentation? What is there to present? Even I used to be able to justify my MXP daydreams with my estimated present and future 2P, 3P, debt figures, BOPD, prospects, share float numbers, etc. You keep writing about a plan that you cannot begin to articulate, not even in a hypothetical setting. And who are the MXP reps making this presentation? Peeping Tom Randell? Is there even a CEO right now? You should ring the company and ask them who is running the show. Even they don't see to know. "4) Business needs £6 mill or thereabouts bridgeing loan to get by before 1,2 and 3 can get upto speed, so fill out all relevant forms for a loan off Wonga.com" [sic] More like notgonnahappen.com. Or quite possibly youarebat****crazy.net. Or maybe dontbeadumbass.biz. "Easypeasy. Trading resumes in MXP in September 2015 and SP triples in price in one day. Capiche?" [sic] No I sure don't. Based on the numbers you would be assigning about a 100,000x future earnings multiple to an insolvent junk company with zero assets, massive debt and zero positive cash flow. Impossible. You cannot even fantasize a workout at this stage any better than what you described in your post, which is pure unsupported conclusory rubbish. The managerial talent (I am using an industry term here and not actually implying that the BOD personnel are talented) would be better off at this point scuttling the ship and going elsewhere, or starting a new venture with new equity investors, fresh licenses and new debt after putting MXP into administration. This is not a ship that can be salvaged now. If you were management, would you try to salvage it? If so, why? More importantly, how? And BTW, OilSpelunker sponsored bea

...MXP is Game Over. The sun is setting. The winter is here. The crops are brown. The patient will not wake up, for it is mortally injured. The rugby player's neck is broken. The pheasant took a full dose of 12 gauge shot to the breast and is nosediving for the ground at full speed with wings tucked. The fox has been caught. The fish has been fried. The fat lady cannot sing because her throat has been cut. The plane has been shot down. The dishes are done. The 4th quarter is over. The tea pot is whistling. The bread is baked. The bacon is fried. The eggs are scrambled. The shoes are tied. The verdict is in and the appeal denied. The policeman is in the rear view mirror with blue light flashing. The hearse is en route. The keg is empty. The piano has no strings left. The tele has no cord. I bid you all a fare night, for daylight is gone.

Username I have asked several times now for somebody to paint one plausible explanation as to how the equity could possibly be saved. Seriously, can nobody even give me a hypothetical example? If not, it would seem that the harpoon is already in the whale and now we're just waiting for it to drown. All that money is gone. I am out about $550,000 total. How about a hypothetical example of saving the equity using basic math? Anyone? Anyone? What are current assets worth saving? Anyone? Licenses (nope)? Prospects (nope)? Substantial reserves (nope)? Discoveries needing to be developed (nope)? Oil prices that permit the sustained development of any of MXP's crappy discoveries (nope)? The PR guy doesn't even know what the hell is going on. How about somebody call that little soothsayer and ask him how his salary is being paid and by whom? And for what? Ladies, Chevron is speaking of selling assets to cover its dividend and debt service. BP has already been there/done that. MXP is

"...possibly AGR and the bank Plotting????" More like nobody doing anything because why bother? The bankers and Kaz Mongols have what's left of the wells now and the licenses so why mess with an administration proceeding in London or Zurich? It's over. Let go. You will never hear again unless the next RNS says "We know nothing. Kaz and Sberbank will not return our calls and we think that an administration proceeding would be a futile endeavor. Sorry. Let go. It's over. Mike Young says hello from the Lone Star State though."

I have decided not to throw any more gas on the fire. Nor do I intend to write "I told you so" or anything else snarky if (notice I wrote "if" and not "when") the equity gets diluted 90%+ or gets extinguished in administration or bankruptcy. From now on, I am here to support you fine gentlemenly scholars and wish you well, especially those of you who had the foresight to push your chips forward and buy in right after MXP disclosed that it was insolvent. In fact, you have dramatically changed my opinion with your enthusiasm and splendid micro analysis on MXP and its possible road to financial recovery. I am now positive on MXP and its chances for renewed success. I think that the Kaz government will renew the license for free and also forgive all debts. Same with Sberbank - complete debt forgiveness and release of all liens. I also think that NUR1 will unstick itself due to a dramatic gravitational shift due to the decrease in harvestable oil due to the worldwide supply glut, and that the condensate in that presalt reservoir will migrate over and seep into the ASK2 well bore and replenish ASK2 at about 25,000 barrels per day. Oil will be at $100.00 per barrel by then, so need to worry about further supply side market saturation. I love you guys. Thank you for turning me back onto MXP. It is the opportunity of a lifetime.

Did you ask him about the licenses, which are now expired and in breach of all long term FFP covenants? If so, did he mention how they were going to borrow new money under the circumstances to buy new licenses? What about the back taxes and past due vendor accounts? "this afternoon, nothing's changed since the last RNS" -Yes this was my prediction exactly. Nobody has bothered to force them into liquidation yet, for what would be the point? The Kaks probably already have the fields under state control. EXACT QUOTES FROM LAST RNS: "In addition to a debt restructuring and equity investment, the Company also requires bridge financing to ensure the Company is viable for the period until the regulatory and other approvals can be in place to permit the debt restructuring and equity investment, if agreed. The company continues in operation, producing circa 2,900 bopd, under severe financial stress." Do you young knights really think that there will be a profitable amount of equity remaining for you after any such deal is completed? If so, please tell us why instead of writing nonsensical posts about how you are going to make money off of MXP with zero support for your speculative thesis. So then let's try something new here friends. How about somebody list MXP's value per share based off of any readily used valuation technique? DCF, Comps, CAPM (based on 2P's), whatever it may be, show us how MXP is worth anything less than about ($25 million).

Morefondle please try not to think too hard about my motivation or posting habits, I don't want you to fire up your brain and hurt yourself. I've stayed on this board since I sold out, just have not posted. I recently witnessed the euphoria on this forum about a magical MXP outcome and had no choice but to drop a line is all.

I liked the last one, I only met her once at the pub that time, and I must correct myself in that it wasn't really that she was ugly, just a little fat. I could see a pretty girl in there trying to escape, she just never got around to shedding the winter weight I guess.

Why do I have to be a bitter bastard? Can't you just be honest and refer to me as a rich handsome bastard?

Why are you so fired up about an anonymous poster on an internet message board? You may recall that I didn't antagonize anybody, I asked a few questions and the next thing I know the mosquitoes are dive-bombing me simply because I am a nonbeliever in the MXP delusions of grandeur and pointed out a few obvious points. Robster has been noting the same negative information for years without a bunch of cyber-bullies ganging up on him. I know that he has a much uglier girlfriend than me, but that in and of itself is no reason to focus the brunt of your discontent solely on my anonymous user ID. My anonymous user ID is actually a self aware neural net processor; a learning computer, and it gets its neurons hurt whenever other anonymous user ID's attack it, so please stop.

You want to know about my portfolio of other investments? OK I'll humor you. I own (this is written in the disjunctive to some extent to satisfy the seekers of negative affirmations) in no particular order: 1) No bonds or other fixed dollar investments other than cash and cash equivalents as I despise assets that cannot compete with or surpass inflation; 2) A small business with 5 employees including myself, said business being my full time job and taking up about 60-70 hours per week of my time; 3) A bucket of dividend growth stocks including RDS.A, BP, COP, CVX, XOM, OXY, UL, PG, JNJ, IBM, KO, PEP, BAC, F, T, VZ, GE, MMM, PM, MO, sold MCD recently, K, GIS, PFE, MRK, WF, JPM, C, and a few more; 4) A single family house that I expanded recently using leverage to add square footage and take advantage of current asset values; 5) A large strip of land located in the mountains in the U.S. for future investment or personal usage; 6) Several vehicles, including a Lexus, a BMW and a Honda; 7) One share of MXP (I kept one to make the company mail me annual reports and such and so that I can request a share certificate, but who do I request it from now?); 8) Two qualified retirement accounts, one is used for derivatives trading, one to foster dividend growth stocks, it has 10 of the above stocks in it; 9) A dedicated derivatives trading account, right now my focus in that account is on energy dependent cyclical common stock warrants and options; 10) Two worthless dogs; 11) A collection of fine wine (I don't drink but it is fun to collect); 12) A twin engine turboprop aircraft (used of course); and 13) Several capital gains tax credits with the various applicable taxing authorities thanks to MXP. And you?

Excuse my apparent ignorance, but what exactly was the question, and what exactly is the "subject?" If the question is why haven't we heard from MXP in well over a month now, my best answer is that I do not know. I certainly have my theories, which I have thoroughly described in my posts. To me, my theories seem much more plausible than your rabid speculation that some sort of super deal must be in the mix and MXP about to emerge from darkness. But if, on the other hand, you are actually asking me to prove a negative, I guess I would suggest that such an endeavor is a factual impossibility. Do you really want me to try to explain why we haven't gotten bad news from MXP yet, and then concede that such a pending omission is a positive development of some sort? Gents, if that is the best criticism that you have for me, it is obvious that you lads are really holding on to hope by a very thin thread here, and also at the sake of your common sense and for some of you, maybe even your sanity. Of course, it is not lost on me that the implication that is cloaked within the penumbras of the question is that because we have not heard anything from MXP, there must be some sort of mega deal in the works that will turn water into wine, and that because I do not know to a certainty why MXP has not updated the market as to its pending fate, I am some sort of idiot for ignoring the obvious. Hmmm. OK. Here is what we all know for fact: MXP cannot sell on the export market. Those sales were 20% of its revenue and its highest margin revenue stream. The Kaz gov't has locked up MXP's bank accounts so it cannot collect revenue from domestic sales in Kaz either. So MXP has zero cash flow from operations right now, right? There are massive back taxes owed. Oil prices are in the tank. The Sberbank loan is in default by way of every covenant in the fine print. Vendors have not been paid. MXP recently stated that it needs a $6 million "bridge loan" just to cover admin to continue with day-to-day operations, exclusive of debt repayment, and I doubt that full production without any admin expense, which is impossible, could cover debt repayment right now, even under a reasonably structured new deal. So you tell me – are you silly geese really holding on for hope? I have a better idea than the one that you laddies have floated – how about you explain to me how MXP equity could possibly survive and thrive this slow death? I ask you to float one plausible scenario – just one. Let’s hear it.

Yes indeed you are correct, only I invested in MXP at a time when there were multiple analysts from companies like Goldman Sachs covering the company with buy ratings, and there was still the upside potential of the pre-salts, and the shallow wells all looked promising too. It was more of an investment than a gamble at the time, or so I thought, based on all available information and professional guidance. Then the NUR1 drill bit got stuck in Mike Young's crack. Then the big shallow finds went to Hades in a hand basket. Then the price of oil started to drop and MXP debt and tax and vendor payments were missed and the stock price collapsed. Then the dilutive placements started (this is what we amateur pundit internet chat room draftsmen call a "death knell" or a "death spiral"). Then the CEO got the punt (chronologically speaking I had sold out by now). And then (drum roll please)......all you financial rocket surgeons apparently loaded up your rubber dinghies with shares of MXP for like 1/10th of a pence per share (it sounded like a great deal, I know). It would seem that you blokes weren't really investors at all, and not really gamblers either (gambling suggests some probability of winning, however small it may be). You gents are more like international philanthropists, out to render aid to starving third world nations of the former Soviet Bloc. And I dig that, and I respect it too. I really do. It's just not my style. Carry on lads with heads high and kilts down. You will survive.

I think part of the huge problem that MXP has is that there is no sensible Administration remedy. Where do you file? London? Do you think that the Russian bank and Kaz tax authorities who have possession of the quickly depleting wells will honor the proceeding and spend money on lawyers in London to do so? I doubt it. I think it is over and that we may never hear from MXP again.

HotShot69 my guess is that they currently do not even have control over the assets. Most likely the Kaks moved in as soon as the tax payments were missed. Zhana Mhakat may have a Kazakhstan national flag hanging over its wells right now for all we know. When you call the company headquarters and they say "We have no idea, we're waiting to hear something too," it is not a good sign. But still, there are people on here writing fantastical posts about coming out of this with a profitable company and valuable shares. Seriously? Export sales have been halted because the company cannot pay its vendors (this was in a RNS folks). Bank accounts are frozen for failure to pay taxes Oil prices are in the tank. Chevron needs to sell assets to make its debt and dividend payments, but Maxers are on here talking about how much money they will make when they get the magical RNS and the shares "start trading" again. Somebody asked why I am still posting on here. I have fellow former shareholders that I respect and admire and we all suffered through this ordeal together. They don't really post much any more (GoMad & Drainboy). I guess I have a morbid fascination with denial is all. I took the MXP bullet already, but I waited way too long to do so.

Anybody phone Tom Randell today to ask about MXP's progress in restructuring talks? I'd call, but being as I'm not a shareholder anymore, I doubt I'd be too motivated to pry into MXP's pending doom (not that TR from PR would be likely to be of much help, he's too busy helping to make the business a "real success" per one of his prior emails that was posted on a message board once).

During gestation, I admittedly had a few chromosomes apply right rudder when they should have gone left, and as a result I do have a slight lisp and two earlobes on my left ear. In my book that hardly qualifies as retardation. I did, however, buy MXP common shares. If you look at my old posts, you'll see that I once shared the same type of misguided and unrealistic enthusiasm displayed by you lot. This specific conduct definitely qualifies me as full retard.

I agree 100% with regard to the 3 possible scenarios: Good = A deal is done with 90%+ dilution. Bad = Reorganization or liquidation and zero share value. Ugly = Kaz authorities file lawsuits in the international court against shareholders in pursuit of back taxes, penalties and interest under Kaz law. I don't know how possible this is, but I have heard of it happening before. I don't think that prison or Interpol involvement is likely, but is it possible?