Member Info for OilSpelunker

Robster just hit the nail squarely on the head. Current non-tax related "severe financial distress" issues aside, no bank or equity financier will touch MXP with the tax issue sitting out there. If you were the lending officer or i-bank due diligence analyst making the call, would you fund it? If so, how do you explain that one to your investors or deposit holders when the Kaks nationalize the rigs for back taxes owed? It's a trick question of course because the answer is that you could not defend taking on that sort of blatant financial or political risk. Ever. This is a terminal threshold issue. And if you've ever worked in Kaz you know that it takes this average sort of issue 2 - 3 years to be adjudicated in the Kaz tax court system, if you are lucky. Normally more like 9 - 10 if they want to wait you out. This is officially a wrap now. Game, set, match. You lads who are pounding your chests gleefully about this RNS are kidding yourselves. I like you young blokes, but come on with it, stop the nonsense. Post Script: For those of you fond of phoning MXP's "Investor Relations" department, perhaps you should ring them and ask them for the specific date that Kaz put MXP on notice about the tax issue. You still have time today. More pointedly, demand of them that they scan/email you a copy of the formal letter from the Kaks so you can see how long MXP sat on it before they alerted the market. This is a matter of public record and is material information, you have every right to know the answer. If it was more than a day, you have a great grievance to be filed, though I don't know who you could file it with since MXP is delisted, and don't kid yourselves, they are taking full advantage of that lack of regulation. This is a prime example.

Only a fool would label this as a "positive" RNS. Here are the highlights: 1) Bank interest still accruing at a compound rate. $3,800,000 in defaulted unpaid interest has accrued already. That means the loan balance is over $83,800,000 and that figure is accruing compound interest at what, 11%? Call it 10% and that's $8,300,000 in interest alone each year compounding. So what is the amount due in December? $25 million for starters to get the figure down to below $100 million by then? That is terminal for MXP. It's largest cash generators are depleting at a large rate now with no hope for an increase in Brent until more shale drillers go down, which is a 12 - 18 month project for the Saudis still. And there is zero exploratory drilling ongoing, which means there is no production growth. This is the death knell for any oil company. 2) On top of the other taxes and vendors owed, the Kaks are now claiming a surprise $20 million Stalin era zinger. For those of you unfamiliar with Kaz history, this is normally how they paper the file when they are going to nationalize a company's assets. Kaz has zero exports other than energy. It accounts for almost 100% of the government's independently earned revenue which is used to pay Kaz pensions. That revenue stream has been cut down by over 50% and the Kaks are in a panic and looking to grab as much cash flow as they can from little peon companies like MXP. This is very likely a terminal issue separate and apart from the unmanageable debt. Best case scenario now is 90%+ equity dilution. It's over folks. This is bad news not good news. What's worse is the stuff that is not in the RNS, namely the license status and current monthly income statement figures and 2P numbers. "The Company continues in operation under severe financial stress." Not for long. This RNS confirms that there is no way for the equity to survive intact. Sorry mates. It is over.

Disregard - no warnings for me yet. The yellow circle would seem to indicate the suspended nature of MXP's trading status and nothing more. Whilst my posts might be colorful, as a matter of practice I do not mention race, color or creed. better safe than Coggy.

Uh oh, it would seem that I got one too - is that the shiny bright yellow circle on the right of the stock price change? I shall behave less heathenistically in the future. It would seem that the MXP debacle got the better of my emotions.

Meet for a pint Coggybear? Punch & Judy's balcony @ Cov G? I work just down the way, can be there in 2 shakes. It's a beautiful day and the air is just right for drinking....

If you're asking me to buy us a cruise together (and I think that you are), the answer is no. Swab the decks with a Maxer instead. My fondness of you is limited to a grandfatherly sort of appreciation for your potential as a fine student at university in a few years. More like a mentor sort of scenario. Shame on you for trying to take advantage of my kindness with a request for a cruise. And I do not have a private jet, said term generally referring to a jet turbine or turbojet vs. a turboprop. Mind you, both aircraft utilize turbine motors based on the same power source, only one turns a shaft that turns a prop, the other a series of fine fan blades designed to compress air with gas and expel it out the rear nozzle at high pressure (sort of like your small intestine). The King Air 200 series is much cheaper than a small jet for day jaunts across the channel and to the north country and back. A few ground rules moving forward Coggy - I like you, but that's as far as it goes. No more requests for money or cruises. Capiche? My Chart of Hunches shows that a severe downturn for MXP is on the way, as in the enterprise value might go from -$50 million to -$100 million with compound interest and late fees and penalties from the bank and the Kaks. Hopefully Ryder Scott gets that report out soon. I'm sure that their geologists are hard at work right now preparing the report.

Right here mate. Coggy forced me back to the bottle. Any word on that Ryder Scott reserves report? Tom Randell any help with that? I'm sure those blokes are hard at work getting that report in tip top shape for MXP. What's your best guess on 2Ps? At this point I, fear that MXP may not have 2 peas left.

"a person suffering from this complaint can be compromised if they are abruptly and unsympathetically disabused of their fantasy. Much like waking a sleepwalker the effects can be very serious. However no attempts should be made to reinforce of validate the fantasies of a person suffering from Waltism. Such actions will only cause the sufferer to slip into a deeper delusional state withdrawal from which will only be more difficult and prolonged." I agree with you 100%. I have been trying very hard to awaken MXP investors on this message board so that they can appreciate their fantasies for what they are, but it does not work. Some here even think that Ryder Scott is still under MXP employment.

Oh my goodness, and wow! Why do you think that Ryder Scott is still working for MXP? Vendors have not been paid mate. Vendors generally get paid after the taxing authorities, who are so extremely unpaid that they have frozen MXP's bank accounts. Ryder Scott is likely long gone. What would they pay them with? Money from export sales? Are you all mad? The denial here on this message board is amazing. Coggy are you there mate? I wanted you to know that last night I suffered from a bout of severe insomnia. The savored ingestion of an entire bottle of fine Bordeaux left me unscathed, for I was unable to drift off until early this morning. I cannot finger an exact explanation, though I must admit that I find myself curiously aroused by the Coggled one. You are a bit of a perfect storm come suddenly upon my once calm sea, my sweet little Coggster. I sense that it is a combination of factors, for CoggyBear possesses the zealous advocacy that shareholders admire; the fierce loyalty that board members desire; and the calm, confident demeanor that corporate financiers and bankers require. I admit that find myself a bit smitten. My only complaint would be your temperament Coggy. You seem to have a short fuse woven together with a quick burning powder. But that will change with time. And I shall wait you out. Passionately Yours, OS

I've landed safe and sound lads, back on sea level. The English countryside is quite a sight at 20,000 ft, albeit a quick sight at that at 300 kts. The fuel burn was considerable given the headwind. Perhaps I can buy some cheap Jet A on the black market tomorrow. Do any of you chaps know of any distressed oil companies that might be interested? Coggy my boy, do not sell yourself short. Your flower has yet to blossom, but the sun shall continue to riseth in the east. Stand fast mate. Your "coomand" of the Queen's is actually quite charming and splendid most times, albeit a bit jumbled and a tad confusing when your excitement to expel words expeditiously gets the better of your normally competent command of the keyboard. Rest assured that I understand your dilemma. I was a confused teenage lad once myself, albeit many moons ago. Take solace in knowledge that the confusion will lessen with the passage of time. Insofar as the rest of you lot and the loosely coordinated salvo of cyber-attacks launched recently against my online persona, I must admit that the arguments are quickly losing their luster and utility as entertainment. I'd compare my view of the exchanges to my estimation of the challenges inherent to clubbing a gaggle of lethargic baby seals. However, the victims of the latter may at least present some sort of spirited defense after the first one goes down, the inevitable notwithstanding. I find my opponents here to be much less challenging. I bid you all tidings of comfort and a fair night.

DarkBlue I'd respond to your attacks in more detail, but my King Air pilot just motioned for me to board my plane for a quick turn hot start. There is a Cuba Libre on board with my name on it. In the mean time, perhaps you can help this Coggy fellow out out with the whole dilution concept. He seems hurt and confused.

Coggy I seriously believe that you must be unfamiliar with the concept of equity shareholder dilution. If a new lender gets 90% of the equity to do a deal, the shares get diluted 1 for 10, meaning your 100,000 shares at 0.125p are now 10,000 shares at 0.125p, meaning you just lost 90% of the value of your investment. How could that possibly put your total investment "in profit?" The last deal was 50% dilution i.e. 1 for 2, but that was when the company still had assets and prospects, including the deeps. Do you really think that a deal now would be better and not exponentially worse? A deal will only be done now by a new lender and Sberbank if it puts Sberbank in a better position than administration. Any way you do the math, it ain't good. For you to write that you would be in profit after any sort of unlimited dilution is mind boggling. You must be a juvenile playing on his daddy's computer or something of the sort. What gives?

Clear headed you mean?

The company writes: "The company continues in operation, producing circa 2,900 bopd, under severe financial stress." But you write: "The operational activity of the company is strong, with cash flow from operations of $27.5m." It would seem that somebody hasn't a clue. And by the way, the MXP RNS excerpt above was written underneath the part of the RNS about the company needing massive bridge financing to pay necessary monthly bills like the salary of the professional wordsmith Tom Randell. And was that really your idea of a business plan? If so, it may be the first business plan in the history of modern commerce that lacks a single reference to any numerical values, outside of your unsupported claim about $27.5 million. MXP is truly doomed if the message board pundits can't even create an imaginary workout. You didn't even mention the share count or possible dilution. Or taxes. Or the licenses. Etc., etc., etc. You should up the voltage on your shock treatments. Quickly and substantially. Probes should also be placed on the skull outside of the frontal lobes to stimulate activity, for it seems absent.

[I don't normally celebrate the misfortune of other investors on this site, but if Max ever does survive this crisis and resumes trading, nothing would give me greater pleasure than to say "Up you"!] Is this your plan even if the stock resumes trading but is diluted by 90%+? I cannot opine that hearing (or reading rather) you write "Up you" will offend me much. I don't even know what that means. But if the company is diluted down to nothing or goes bankrupt, I will definitely write "Up yours" to you in a post, which might make a little more sense in her Royal Majesty the Queen's written English language. Between now and then, rest up, for you will need every ounce of your energy to channel and contain your emotions when Tom Randell and the rest of the MXP brain trust drop the hammer on you with the terminal RNS, which you and I both know is probably already written, and due "the market" (i.e. all 5 of you) any day now.

September? Have you gents gone mental? What would the Sberbank loan balance be by then? $1 billion or so? The existing shallow assets will be depleted by then too, but that does not matter because MXP does not currently appear to own or operate them or receive any monies from the sale of the oil. September. Geeze. You sound silly now. Now, I am going to say "I told you so" when the bad news hits.

Yes.

Assuming that the guillotine RNS does not come down on Monday morning, please let us know what he tells you.

Instead of focusing your frustration on me and ignoring the topic, would it be possible for any of you to articulate your bull case for MXP? I keep asking for it and you keep ignoring me. When an investor cannot even hypothesize an imaginary workout for his distressed investment, the odds are very slim that said investor will have said investment in 12 months. Am I angry? Yes. Mainly at myself for buying Mike Young's snake-oil, but also at Goldman Sachs and a few other brokerages for the silly buy ratings, Mike Young again for his silly and over-hyped Power Point presentations that I believed (I have learned that anybody who says "um" constantly when he speaks publicly just cannot be trusted), Tom Randell for his constant stream of misleading PR rants, and Robster for dating a fat chick who was born with only one kneecap (she walks with a pronounced limp, more like a hobble). I hope Mike Young goes to visit NUR1 and slips and falls into the wellbore. He can then rest peacefully at the bottom with our money, never to be seen or heard from again (on the way down he'd probably be saying "um ...oops...oops...um...whoopsydaisy that casing feels cheap and rough...um...").

You're right. Losing 1% of one's net worth is no laughing matter.