Member Info for OilSpelunker

It appears as if they deleted the post with your foul language ivorseas. I am surprised to see you still posting. I assumed it might be a "red card" for the unforgivable F-Bomb offense that you committed in plain sight during daylight hours for CCTV to record.

Wow! What a deal. On holiday? Tis' one of the benefits of a strong pound me supposes. But Ukraine? And you are close to the front as well. Is it safe?

Who said I'm a "him?" Take 5 minutes and make out the bull case for MXP equity. Write a few paragraphs for yourself. Then take 5 minutes and make out the bear case for MXP. Write a few paragraphs for yourself. Then take 5 minutes and decide which one makes more sense to you. Rewrite that paragraph with your additional thoughts. Post it here. I have a feeling that this week may contain a DoomsDay event for MXP. For all we know, tomorrow could be D-Day. By my calculations, the timing would be about right. If AGR pulls the ejection handle on its rescue deal, I suspect that the result will be a swift and decisive administration filing. We've seen the desperation capitulation from MXP already in that lengthy RNS about the AGR letter of intent. Personally, I suspect that the crow is already in the air. We shall see. I must say, it is a relief to be 100% out of MXP. Where is Coggy today? I miss my old posting mate.

Village idiot huh? We'll see who the idiot is before too long. I have made my opinions on MXP equity and its current prospects and suspected future very clear. So far, not a single poster has provided any sort of meaningful rebuttal. There was one post that mentioned "tell the bank this, pitch the government that, etc." and that is the best that anybody has been able to do. The AGR working capital "rescue" package would simply be the beginning of the death spiral for the common stock. You immediately lose 2/3 of it just so that MXP can obtain enough working capital to survive until it can conduct yet another placement/refinancing of the larger loans and dilute what is left over down to nothing. This was fully disclosed in the subject RNS. And now MXP has officially entered the Kazakhstan version of Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganisation. The MXP PR machine is doing its job. It has you lot pacified with its wordplay. "Stakeholders" was used very cleverly as a term to make you think that the company was talking to you in that RNS. It was not. It was talking to Sberbank, its vendors, and the Kazakhstan government. It avoided any reference to bankruptcy in its own bankruptcy RNS, and there was no reference to such a proceeding serving as an "Insolvency Event" that could be identified as a contingency able to trigger a possible AGR deal termination. I suspect that MXP PR would avoid answering any questions right now about whether or not that deal is still on. Once they officially pull the plug, they are going to ignore you anyway. MXP PR has really done a number on you blokes. It has you convinced with its carefully crafted RNS releases that you might to be OK with your equity positions. When I read those releases, I see right through the BS. When you step back and look at the MXP timeline of events, coupled with specific managerial quotations from RNS releases and statements made by management on teleconference recordings, it almost looks like a giant ponzi scheme. There was a huge securities fraud scandal at the beginning of the MXP endeavor. And since then, MXP has "robbed Peter to pay Paul," as they say, every time that it has run out of money. It has yet to pay Peter back once. Peter keeps getting shafted. I doubt that there are any Peters left for MXP to victimize. With oil prices where they are now, and given where they are suspected to be through year end, I suspect that AGR has killed its deal, and that Sberbank will drop the hammer before too long to try to cut its losses. Sooner or later, any reasonable banker will say that enough is enough and pull the plug. I would.

Thank you for the comments about my one redeeming quality Muttongeoff. I have always been of the opinion that the best teachers are those that entertain while they teach. That, and Coggy thinks that I am joking with my opinions about MXP's pending doom. So, I figured that to reach the adult hiding beneath his child-like surface, I could reduce my lessons to a sort of comical skit format, the hope being that once the comedy removes his very course cerebral surface dirt, his subsurface reservoirs might at least have a chance to absorb some of the nutrients. That remind me. A few days ago I noted that the AGR equity execution pre-party plan had an escape hatch labeled "Insolvency Event." Until today, I did not realize that such term was also defined in the letter of intent excerpt. It is copied and pasted verbatim below, and unfortunately, it does include any formal proceeding for debt insolvency or "reorganisation." It could be that the AGR deal is already shot and dead per this event, though it could also be that it was contemplated and part of the plan as well. I do not know, but I suspect the former since there was no anti-panic explanation paragraph in the last RNS. Instead, the MXP Wordsmith is earning his keep by massaging each sentence in such as way as to keep a few of you phonologically sedated. The experienced eye sees right through the froth. Here is the "Insolvency Event" definition for your review - I am interested in your thoughts: "any corporate action, legal proceedings or other procedure taken in relation to a Group Company with a view to: (i) the suspension of payments, a moratorium of any indebtedness, winding-up, dissolution, administration or reorganisation; (ii) a composition, assignment or arrangement with any creditor of any member; (iii) the appointment of a liquidator, trustee in bankruptcy, judicial custodian, compulsory manager, receiver, administrative receiver, administrator or similar officer in respect of any a Group Company or any of its assets; (iv) the enforcement of any security over any assets; (v) a meeting of a Group Company, its directors or its members convened for the purpose of considering any resolution for, or to petition for, or apply for or to file documents with a court for its winding-up, administration or dissolution or any such resolution passed; (vi) any person presenting a petition or an application for initiation of bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings, winding-up, administration or dissolution; (vii) directors requesting the appointment of or taking any step with a view to appointing a liquidator, trustee in bankruptcy, judicial custodian, compulsory manager, receiver, administrative receiver or administrator; (viii) initiation by any person of any bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings, or (ix) any analogous procedure or step taken in any jurisdiction"

Here is a guaranteed way to get $800,000.00 in cash - this advice is free of charge: 1) Create an oil company. 2) Borrow and raise about $100 million. So you've now got $100,000,000.00 to work with, give or take a few quid. 3) Shoot a bunch of 3D seismic imaging with a 1975 Polaroid camera (the ones with the cube flash torch on top). 4) Commit securities fraud by giving your preferred insiders and friends undisclosed options so that they can share in the fun. 5) Sack the people involved in the above, or, at least make it look like you did (be sure not to have anybody prosecuted though). 6) Promote other lower level employees to run what is left of the company. Learn to be smooth on the phone and on paper. 7) Raise and borrow more money. Dilute what your shareholders have left by about 50% in the process. Issue your directors and newly promoted and appointed executives matching options so that they are not diluted by a single pence. 8) Run the company into the ground. Be sure to over-hype shallow finds like Uytas in the process and start big expensive drills that you'll never be able to finish. Be sure to pay your employees large salaries and year end bonuses, and keep giving them more options too. 9) Repeat #6 so that the total amount that you have borrowed and begged for by now is about $250,000,000. That's right - just raise more money. Take on more debt and dilute your shareholders by 50% again. Now the original shareholders are diluted by about 75%. Issue your management and directors even more options so that once again they are not diluted by a single pence. 10) Continue to run the company into the ground. Miscalculate tax payments. Talk up those shallow finds in the teleconference calls with your shareholders. Use powerful buzzwords like "Transformational." Congratulations. By now, you should have about $800,000.00 cash left. Guaranteed. All you need is $250,000,000.00 to start with, some gullible investors, and a group of special needs executives to "Unlock the Value." Voila!

Ich vermute, dass deine Mutter war sehr schön. Leider sind Sie ein kleiner Bumser.

DarkBlue: I'm gone for good this time mate. I don't have the patience or desire to deal with Coggy's mean spirited comments. I sincerely hope that MXP works out for you. I have a well thought out proposal for a possible company rescue that I had scratched out over the last several weeks, but I do not feel the need to summarize and post it now. Maybe I'll email a copy to MXP just for grins though. Regards.

When you refer to the 4th of July, are you referring to that infamous date whereupon those treacherous rebels gave you a Royal middle finger and proceeded to execute the greatest F-YOU in the history of Her Majesty's Royal Kingdom? Something to do about an oppressive tea tax or something? Or are you referring to some other event? I am German. I'm pretty sure that I have disclosed this before. And I agree that us having a debate would be an unproductive and unfair endeavor. It is impossible to reason with an unreasonable and mean spirited ego maniac such as yourself. I have had more intelligent discussion about oil companies with rabbits. But do send me an invoice for that tea. I'll see that it gets paid promptly. I have hired MXP's former bursar to ensure that all legitimate tax bills are paid promptly. I wouldn't want my bank accounts to get seized for failure to pay taxes. If that happened, I might have to file for bankruptcy too. To the rest of you, I say good luck. I have nothing but love for you.

"You are not a man of your word." Coggy what makes you think that I am a male? I never wrote that.

In response to my last post, Coggy has taken personal shots at me, insulted a Country that I do not live in, and threatened to give me a "Red Card" for simply posting a response to another poster's request that I do so. Noticeably lacking from Coggy's venomous outbursts is a single sentence or even a word dedicated to addressing the issues raised in my last post. Not a one. This is what what some might refer to as "troll" behavior. Coggy wants to pick a fight with me for no reason. I endured a self-imposed exile/cooling off period and did not return until I was asked to do so. I will be happy to leave again.

I was asked to post my observations by DarkBlue. I was silent until I saw his outcry and very real request that I return as a chaperone and observer to ride herd over the board, which has apparently now spun itself into unrealistic delirium and madness. I get a red card for responding to his request that I do so? That hardly seems fair mate.

..."require" otherwise. That just doesn’t happen I’m afraid. And I hope that I am wrong and that this is just the new beginning for MXP common equity holders. But, I cannot even dream up a realistic scenario where that could be the case. If debt holders (i.e. banks and bondholders) are going to agree to take it on the chin and let MXP escape intact, it will not be for the voluntary profit of equity holders. That is a factual and legal impossibility. It would be the first time ever for such an event. Ever. Ever ever. By way of example, American Airlines delivered a prepackaged bankruptcy and still fought smaller creditors tooth and nail in the bankruptcy proceeding, as the large bank and bond creditors were the only ones who were included in the "Pre-Packaged" part of the deal. Vendors and such were told to stuff it and had to fight for every penny. Most of them got hosed. The only reason the existing equity holders got 3.5% of the new equity was because the pilots were going to all quit if not, that, and they had wage claims which were considered "preferred" claims in the proceeding. None of you fly planes for MXP or keep its day-to-day business alive, and none of you have unpaid wage claims, so unfortunately, you don't have that leverage. Or am I just plain wrong?

I’m still here. I will not be rude or disrespectful, but I will be bluntly honest about what I think. I have reviewed the RNS about the bankruptcy announcement and the related responses from posters. As I am sure you know, Samek International, LLP is the Kazakhstan domiciled wholly owned subsidiary of MXP that operates the MXP assets, such as the wells and reservoirs. It could be that creditors with secured and senior claims, such as the banks, tax authorities, vendors and employees with wage claims, were beginning to move to seize and liquidate assets involuntarily, hence the filing. I’ve tried to read and research the current issues and write my observations in the most positive light possible. I stand to gain nothing by your possible loss of capital. I wish you no ill will. I am definitely bitter at MXP, but certainly not fellow shareholders whom I feel for. Unfortunately, I cannot formulate a positive response about MXP’s future, and in fact, I believe that this might be the end for MXP equity already, as I will describe below. First, if this bankruptcy reorganization filing under Kazakhstan law (more on that below) is deemed an “Insolvency Event” per the portions of the AGR Letter of Intent “Summary” that MXP has chosen to share with retail investors (much likely was not shared), then perhaps that deal is already dead and gone. Brent tanked right after that announcement too, making the company even more insolvent than it admitted to being before. It might be worth it to ring the Wordsmith to ask him if AGR has killed the deal already per the insolvency filing, or if this was actually a part of that deal. And it could be that this is actually a part of that deal. More specifically, “Pre-Packaged Bankruptcies” are pretty common these days. Less there be any confusion, the “Initiation of Rehabilitation Process” is the subsequent equivalent of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization under American law, versus a Chapter 7 liquidation. American Airlines and General Motors have filed for pre-packaged bankruptcy reorganization protection within the last several years. Both of those companies survived and have already emerged from bankruptcy. Unfortunately, the equity of those companies did not. Equity never, ever survives a bankruptcy, be it a liquidation or reorganization. GM equity was wiped out completely in favor of creditors. To throw the pilots a bone and prevent an all out mutiny, American Airlines equity was diluted by 96.5%, giving old shareholders a tiny 3.5% of the new company, thus, those with 1,000 shares of the old American Airlines emerged with only 35 shares of the new reorganized entity. Keep in mind, for common shareholders to survive at all after an event of bankruptcy insolvency, the money creditors would have to agree to voluntarily surrender more than their fair share, i.e. they would have to agree to take a bigger loss than the law would req

"And your point is?" That I am right, and that I have been right, and that you are delusional with this speak of "tidy profits" and magical resurrections. The odds of Jesus coming back in the next 50 years are much better than the odds of MXP pulling through this without administration. And MXP management knows this. You lot are busy making beds in a burning house mate. And the MXP BOD knows this (with today's numerical data disclosure I guess they've told us all now, huh?). Get out now if you can. Try to sell on the private market. Contact the Wordsmith directly and ask him about alternative liquidation options. Ring Merrill Lynch and see if they will buy your shares. Buzz Goldman Sachs and ask if they will "hoover up" your equity. Get pizzed and dash through the City yelling out for a buyer. Get angry and call on the United Kingdom Minister of Finance and inquire as to whether or not they are interested in getting rich off your shares. Track down Michael Young on his ranch spread in Texas, U.S.A. and tell "Howdy, um, Partner!" to see if he will step off of his bucking bronco and, "um," purchase your paper gold. Email the Kazakhstan tax authorities and see if they want to deal you a punt for your shares of MXP wealth so they can get filthy rich too. Call down the well bore of NUR1 and see if an entombed Kazakhstan pigmy wishes to deal you a nice pile of quid for your MXP assets. Do something! Get out now while you can! The end is nigh! Have I gone mad? Yes indeed. MXP had forced me into darkness and madness. And with that, I am done posting on this forum. I shall read from time to time, but I shall never post again. You want me and my alternative view points gone from your daily grind, so I shall honor your wishes and disappear forever. You win Coggy. Your match Ivanor. Set to you Logical. I bid you farewell. I wish you all tidings of joy and pray for peace on earth. Regards. -THE END-

Now we know how bad it really is. MXP's current cash balance is only $800,000 U.S.! Kaz seized millions and vendors are owed over $20 million not counting Sberbank! "Trade and other payables of US$20.7 million include payables of US$11.7 million for which settlement is overdue. In respect of these overdue payables, the Group has signed settlement agreements with vendors totalling US$6.7 million to settle the outstanding payables in instalments [sic] over the six months ended 31 December 2015. Inclusive of the Sberbank Loan of US$79.6 million and the provision for decommissioning obligations of US$4.9 million but before deferred tax liabilities, total liabilities of the Group at 30 June 2015 were US$127.5 million. As at 30 June 2015, the Group had cash balances of US$0.8 million. On 13 April 2015, the Kazakh tax authorities seized US$3.3 million which the Company was holding in an escrowed bank account as an environmental restoration and rehabilitation fund (the "Liquidation Fund") under the terms of the Group's Licence and applied it against the approximately US$4.5 million in taxes owed to reduce the balance of taxes outstanding to approximately US$1.2 million."

A shareholder is definitely a stakeholder - even one who now owns 1% of what he used to. That's Wordsmith Randell at work earning his salary is all, and he is apparently effective on blokes who lack experience. Did you seriously miss that play on words he used? Not catching on yet? You are missing the forest for the trees mate. The BOD is speaking to the creditors who could harpoon MXP in one fatal swoop at any second, they could care less about you, they have their own hides and salaries to worry about. Your equity is gone, and you know it. It is not possible for your equity to survive this, and they just told you that. Do you think that the required "significant" mid and long term financing would come as a pure debt deal and not a share placement? Even in good times, MXP could not manage that. Management will issue themselves new options 1 for 1 per diluted share too - they always have in the past. Wait for it. They will do it. Ring the Wordsmith Randell and ask him if new options issuance for the BOD is their match plan and see if he answers you. I dare you. I did some fag pack calculations - at today's announced dilution ratio, issuing an equity placement to finance new debt for the current Sberbank loan alone would be well over 99% dilution. If MXP needs more $$ than that, it will be worse (could it be worse though?). My guess - this is posturing so the BOD can get a few more paychecks before they scuttle the ship into the depths of the Sea of Administration. Either way, the current shareholders are to be drowned. Sorry mate, but "Up you" will be mine to announce in due time when my predictions all ring true, there is no doubting it now. My advice is to re-read each line of the RNS and pay attention to the adjectives used and disclosures. MXP is being very careful to attempt full disclosure for once, undoubtedly because they know that at least a few of us have caught on to some material omissions that could come back to haunt them one day when they officially off the rest of your equity.

A quick post-script, if this deal closes and "significant" longer term placements are performed as promised by management, my guess is still for 90% dilution. So, the 3,620 shares that you had after the working capital dilution would, under my theory, turn into 362 shares. Even at 50% dilution, which is very unlikely considering that a few million quid just cost you 2/3, you are now down to 1,810 shares (that is a pipe dream, 90% - 99% or even 99.9% is more likely). Do the math yourselves and tell me that I'm wrong. This may be the first company in history to end up with a float of over a trillion shares.

Come on lassies, read the RNS. First of all, there is a very unlikely probability that this deal closes at all given the contingencies and escape clauses held by AGR. Assuming, arguendo, that it does close, this deal is for a nominal amount of working capital only! And for that working capital, you just got diluted by 63.8%. For working capital. What does this mean really? OK let's look - assuming this deal goes through, for every 10,000 shares you just had, you now have the subsequent equivalent of 3,620 shares. And that's not the worst part. What is the worst part, you might ask? This: "The Subscription will provide working capital to the Company to alleviate its severe immediate financial stress. Further significant financing will be required in the mid and longer term to reestablish going concern status and viability of the business." Your equity is as good as gone. Assuming, arguendo, that this deal closes (my bet is that it will not and that administration happens instead), your remaining 36.2% of shares are going to be completely wiped out when another placement is required to refinance the long term debt and acquire new debt for further exploration and development operations. Will such "significant" additional financing be required? Yes, they just told you so. Now you are getting into compound dilution (i.e. the opposite of compound interest), which means you all have burnt toast but do not know it yet because it is still down in the toaster. Notice the quotes from the BOD - he referred to "stakeholders," not "shareholders." The going concern statements refer to the company, not its equity. This is what we poker players refer to as a "tell." This is what police detectives refer to as a “clue.” It's over, the slow agonizing death of the value of your equity is now upon you officially. This is actually much worse than I envisioned. Sorry mates.

"Victoriois?" Is that drunken Scotsman speak for "Victorious?" "Didn't you lose a packet here?" Well, that is subjective I suppose. Do you mean a packet for me in my world or a packet for you in yours? "Just saying pal." So now I am your "pal?" I referred to you miscreants as my "mates" and I immediately got pen-whipped by one of the more aggressive MXP snapdragons called Coggybear. Is there a double standard applicable to MXP investors who haven't officially been wiped out yet? If so, will that change when the fatal RNS is delivered?