Interesting Comparison18 Jan 2020 11:14
I have been wondering what would be a suitable comparison to TRP for a little while and now I think I have found a candidate. After watching the video to the left of this page it turns out that Petro Matad (MATD) is a good comparison.
Rather than trying to compare other W African plays I wanted to compare with other companies with projects at a similar stage to Tower's.
Petro Matad owns 100% of of their Mongolian blocks and have identified a 25m bbl of recoverable Oil which requires an initial £10m to develop. They are considering their options but the main two are a partner (farm out) or equity financing. Having got this far I realised this sounds rather familiar, so I decided to take a look at the numbers.
Both companies currently own 100% of their respective assets.
Both assets are at the same stage of development and require a similar amount to progress to production. Whether the financing come via equity or Partnering of equity or a combination is
a bit of an irrelevance at the end of the day, this is because the overriding consideration is the final
percentage of the project they have managed to retain.
Assuming they both manage to keep a 50% share then by looking at the different current market capitalisations of the respective companies a valid comparison can be made.
In this case because MATD has a £25m market cap and they are looking to develop 25m bbls of Oil
the valuation is easy to calculate. It is simply £1 a bbl for their asset at this stage.
Using this approach for Tower implies that TRP should be valued at £18m just for Cameroon where
we are at Now. Thats 1.64p a share which is 172% above our current price.
That is why I am staying Puy and will double up my position on any weakness