Member Info for oilmanmike

M&G took 5.8% of the company in the invesco sale!! Nice work if you can get it!!

- retail on the up
- pups opening early
- Invesco iceberg melted
- 72% behind the curve
- potential T/O at these levels

Zaco you sold in the low 60's correct?

NRR is one of the few Hospitality stocks yet to regain 50% of the
CV drop. As such is is a very good play on the sector reopening.
Still very oversold here for the fundamentals.
Have you seen the front page of the Sunday Times yet?
target here is 120p IMHO

the board doomsayers will not like this.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jobs-bloodbath-accelerates-easing-of-lockdown-for-pubs-restaurants-and-weddings-wgmlfzzpx
not a subscriber so not the full article.
But enough to get the idea.

asset value hasn't halved in 5 years.
If this was such a problem here we would
have seen an 'intu' style decline in the sp
pre CV19. Also your assumption is the max
LTV has already been reached. Again maybe
the case with INTU but not here.

answer on ADVFN bb

From Chucko1 on advfn

But even then, they lose 33% of pubs' rent which is about 8-9% of their total. For around 8 months, which equates to around 6% of overall total for 2020. Less severe for their retail being made up of many shops either open or eligible to be open, so likely another 20% x 75% for half a year (on average) = 7.5%. Total lost rent for 2020 is therefore 16% according to this simple model. That sounds like about 40% of their dividend. Assuming the Barnett/Woodford pressure was worth 30p, then pre-19 effective share price should have been 220p. A simple dividend model would then value this thing at (1 - 40%) x 220p = 132p. If that's not too exciting, pay a 13p dividend (60% of 21.4p) equating to a 10% yield even at 132p and start converting some of the pesky pubs and take development profits (pretty easy when you've marked the pub down 40%, assuming residential does not collapse - and if it does, you'd have bigger problems than a breakeven trade).

I replied with

thanks for your thoughts chucko1.
A third methodology confirms your 132p

260p Nav 31/12/19
revaluation hit 30% leaves 183p
30% discount to NAV leaves 127.4p

pretty close to your 130p to 132p

it's a £2000 per year city professionals news feed.
https://www.ifre.com

All we have is the header on
hTTps://www.ifre.com/story/2388400/invesco-exits-newriver-reit-with-40m-abb-l8n2dh43c

If as reported on Bloomberg Invesco have exited NRR with a £40 ABB (accelerated book build) after hours on where is the RNS. I can understand that if the 58m shares have beed distributed amongst Institutional investors there will be NO individual TR1's. However it is still the case that Invesco have gone from 18.9% to zero and as of yet there has been no RNS informing shareholders.
The onus is for invesco to inform NRR who then have to announce the change in significant shareholdings to the market. Neither company was slow on the previous small sale so why the delay now..... One explanation is the the buyer of the block is a corporate investor and that they have not finished yet. Under such circumstances are Invesco obliged to hold fire on any announcement until the buyer has announced? Just thinking out loud. Probably a simple explanation at the end of the day.

Nice to see such confidence!
what is your target next month or so

invesco are thought to have sold all their holding last night at 69p. It was an off market transaction
with multiple parties and the book was oversubscribed. Against a backdrop of a weaker market today this has affected NRR, HMSO and INTU, who have been the risers in this sector.
Good news is once announced it removes a huge overhang that resulted from the Woodford/Barnett fiasco. This will allow the shares to float back up to a more realistic valuation.
My feeling is c120p

yes I know I have been diverted a little but

To catch up with HMSO and INTU this needs to be 120p.
Here's why:
looking at prices on 20th Feb and comparing with the low both HMSO and
INTU have bounced 50%. NRR has only recovered 19% of the drop and a 50%
recovery represents 120p.
This methodology maintains the various discounts to NAV's as the market saw it
pre CV19

AND
Berenberg Bank 103p
Barclays Capital 90p
HSBC 95p
ALSO
look at how hopeless Brokers targets were on the way back up for HMSO
e.g. Peel Hunt 55p HSBC 52p Morgan Stanley 50p compared with todays close
of 111p.
Pull the other one , it has bells!!

They can always use their investment grade debt to raise the cash.

Gooday to all shareholders.
Looking on marine traffic the Rig COSL Seeker
appears to be located in the Gulf of Guinea. If you
select nearby vessels a ship named Daphne comes up.
It is a danish pollution control vessel and she is currently
right on top of the the Seeker is located. Past track shows
a route encircling the Seeker. Some sort of pollution survey
is my best guess at this stage. Best to ALL

felt my ear getting hot this am. Sure enough when I checked the gossip there I am. LoL
Still very much here happy to share thoughts later this pm.

The 35% increase in the price of oil in the last 24 hours will help.

a 20% bounce here on the back of the near 30% jump in the price of Brent

A mad an
are you having beans on toast for supper tonight?