Member Info for offmessage

Lots of good employee reviews:

"Great company, fantastic people who work to change the energy paradigm

Team Leader (Former Employee) - Horsham - 15 July 2022

I found Ceres to be a great company to work for.

The management was very supportive, beyond my expectations in fact.

A lot of competence there to rely on.

A lot of motivation for what the company does, represents.

A solid technology strategy.

Go for it!

Pros

people who know what they talk about

Cons

not much in fact"

https://uk.indeed.com/cmp/Ceres-Power-Ltd/reviews/great-company-fantastic-people-who-work-to-change-the-energy-paradigm?id=4d9dd8293a145de8

Is that someone reduced 23% down to 7% and somebody else picked them up and increased their stake from 7% to 23%?

That's how it looks but I'm not sure

FFS how can it be a P&D when they've developed a test for cancer! This is massive!

So what if the mcap is 10M, they hold £7M in cash. This is absolutely ground breaking and will be very lucrative for the company

The shareprice was 8p just 6 months ago, should get back there

Absolutely game changing. MCAP only £1.6M!! This has got a long way to go

The company has recognised the lack of traction in the past and changed its strategy. This new strategy, focusing on treatment development, has had a very promising start. Two papers supporting the approach in the past couple of weeks and a joint marketing campaign with illumina, kicking off with the presentation on thursday.

If they were continuing to flog the same old dead horse then i would share the pessimism of some posters, but this is a new approach and I am optimistic that when used in the proposed way, parsortix will bring huge benefits and commercial success.

Sometimes you just have to find the right way to use a tool before you can realise the full advantages. Parsortix is a great product, they are building a compelling case for its use in treatment development and commercial success will quickly follow.

Something doesn't make sense...

Updated Valuation Using $2,600/oz Gold Price and $1,000/oz Cost

We will recalculate AltynGold’s potential share price based on:

Annual production = 50,000 ounces

Gold price= $2,600 per ounce

Production cost= $1,000 per ounce

Shares outstanding= 27 million

Exchange rate= $1 = £0.79

Tax rate assumption= 20%

- Production cost:

\[

1,000 \times 0.79 = £790 \ounce

---

### **Step 2: Calculate Revenue and Profit**

#### **Revenue**

\[

50,000 \times £2,054 = £102.7M

\]

#### **Total Production Cost**

\[

50,000 \times £790 = £39.5M

\]

#### **Gross Profit**

\[

£102.7M - £39.5M = £63.2M

\]

#### **Profit After Tax (Conservative Estimate, 20%)**

\[

£63.2M \times 0.8 = £50.6M

\]

---

### **Step 3: Adjust for Risks**

Due to **geopolitical and operational risks** in **Kazakhstan**, AltynGold’s **P/E ratio** will likely be lower than Western gold miners. A reasonable **P/E range** is:

- **Low case:** **6** (higher risk)

- **Mid case:** **8**

- **High case:** **10** (if risks are minimal)

---

### **Step 4: Estimate Market Capitalization**

Using different **P/E ratios**:

- **P/E of 6**:

\[

£50.6M \times 6 = £304M

\]

- **P/E of 8**:

\[

£50.6M \times 8 = £405M

\]

- **P/E of 10**:

\[

£50.6M \times 10 = £506M

\]

---

### **Step 5: Calculate Implied Share Price**

With **27 million shares outstanding**:

- **P/E of 6**:

\[

£304M / 27M = £11.26 \text{ per share}

\]

- **P/E of 8**:

\[

£405M / 27M = £15.00 \text{ per share}

\]

- **P/E of 10**:

\[

£506M / 27M = £18.74 \text{ per share}

\]

---

### **Final Conclusion**

At **$2,600 per ounce gold price** and **$1,000 per ounce production cost**, the **fair share price range** for **AltynGold** (accounting for risks) would be:

**£11.26 to £18.74 per share**, based on an estimated **£50.6M profit** and a **P/E ratio of 6–10**.

Currently re-rating to proper value, lots of buys coming in

If we use production of 30000 oz per month, costs $700/oz and gold price $2600 then it gives:

Scenario Annual Profit (GBP) PE 8x Share Price PE 12x Share Price

Base Case £547.2 million £0.34 £0.51

Just being ultra conservative, low gold price, lower than expected production and higher than expected costs, to give a worst case scenario... still looks massively undervalued even with those pessimistic parameters

Just playing around with deepseek and some conservative figures...

---

### 1. *Fair PE Ratio for Greatland Gold plc*

As previously discussed, a fair PE range for a new gold producer like Greatland Gold, adjusted for risk, is *8x to 12x*.

---

### 2. *Financial Projections*

Using the assumptions provided:

- *Monthly Production*: 20,000 ounces

- *Annual Production*: 240,000 ounces (20,000 x 12)

- *Production Cost*: $1,000 per ounce

- *Gold Price*: $2,000 per ounce

- *Revenue and Cost Calculations*:

- Revenue per ounce = $2,000

- Cost per ounce = $1,000

- Profit per ounce = $1,000 ($2,000 - $1,000)

- Annual Profit = 240,000 ounces x $1,000 = $240 million

- *Exchange Rate Adjustment*: Assuming GBP/USD = 0.80 (1 GBP = 1.25 USD):

- Annual Profit in GBP = $240 million x 0.80 = *£192 million*

---

### 3. *Forward PE and Expected Share Price*

With *13 billion shares outstanding*, the implied share price is calculated as follows:

- *Market Cap Calculation*:

- Using a PE of 8x: Market Cap = £192 million x 8 = *£1.536 billion*

- Using a PE of 12x: Market Cap = £192 million x 12 = *£2.304 billion*

- *Implied Share Price*:

- At PE 8x: £1.536 billion / 13 billion shares = *£0.118 per share*

- At PE 12x: £2.304 billion / 13 billion shares = *£0.177 per share*

---

### 4. *Risk Adjustment*

As a new producer, Greatland Gold faces risks such as operational delays, cost overruns, and gold price volatility. The *8x to 12x PE range* already incorporates a risk discount. If we assume additional risks (e.g., geopolitical or regulatory challenges), the PE range could be adjusted further downward, but for now, we'll stick with the *8x to 12x range*.

---

### 5. *Conclusion*

Based on the updated number of shares outstanding (13 billion) and the assumptions provided:

- *Fair PE Range*: 8x to 12x

- *Implied Share Price Range: **£0.12 to £0.18 per share*

This valuation assumes:

- Successful execution of production targets (20,000 ounces per month).

- Stable gold prices ($2,000 per ounce).

- No significant cost overruns ($1,000 per ounce production cost).

In either case, it looks like the market has this crazy under valued at the moment

Is it Thursday for the presentation? I wouldn't be surprised to see some real progress following that, perhaps even orders

ChatGPT:

To estimate a fair price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for AltynGold, we can look at the P/E ratios of comparable companies in the gold mining industry. As of recent data, major gold mining companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold have P/E ratios around 14 and 13, respectively.

Other companies in the sector have P/E ratios ranging from approximately 11 to 36.

Given this range, a P/E ratio between 10 and 15 could be considered reasonable for AltynGold, depending on factors such as its production efficiency, reserve base, and market position.

Assuming AltynGold achieves a profit after tax of £50 million, we can estimate the implied market capitalization by applying these P/E ratios:

P/E of 10: £50 million * 10 = £500 million

P/E of 15: £50 million * 15 = £750 million

To determine the implied share price, we need the number of shares outstanding. As of June 2024, AltynGold had approximately 27.33 million shares outstanding.

Using this figure:

P/E of 10: £500 million / 27.33 million shares ≈ £18.30 per share

P/E of 15: £750 million / 27.33 million shares ≈ £27.45 per share

Therefore, based on a profit after tax of £50 million and industry P/E ratios, the implied share price for AltynGold would be between approximately £18.30 and £27.45.

Looking good for a run up to 9p if it can get through this resistance at 8.2p

HSBC downgrades Primary Health to 'reduce' with a price target of £0.77

I don't think he'll put tariffs on the UK, I think we've escaped the orange wrath for now

"Illumina is excited about this too. They’ve allocated their entire webinar for the European Association of Cancer Research conference on February 6th to ANGLE’s presentation of these results. This marks the start of a new co-marketing program between Illumina and ANGLE.

Illumina has 23,000 sequencing systems in the market, sold to 9,500 customers. All these customers could benefit from buying a Parsortix system to recover samples and extend their analysis from ctDNA to both ctDNA and circulating tumour cells. That’s why we’re very happy about this development."

Exciting times... iwwtboototw

Think you've got a decimal point wrong, more like £12