Member Info for ocelot

YL,

MMs and traders aren't really my concern, I'm much more interested in investors, who will take a longer-term view.

Am hoping some investors will wish to average down from current loss-making positions and am expecting others to be new to Angus and prepared to look at its prospects free from the disappointments of the past.

We shall see.

Not all investors are put off by an investment horizon of, say, 9 months - a lot of oil companies (amongst others) wouldn't exist if that was the case.

PS: Sounds like a pub, the Prospect of Whitby!

YL, Good evening!

There are various hurdles to be overcome, of course, but it is for each investor to decide whether the prospect of Saltfleetby should be entirely ignored in the present or not.

Reminder of Saltfleetby forecasts, from the 2nd half of 2020:

• Even under a conservative scenario the total net cash
generated over the 10 year field life is £17.6 million.
• The optimistic scenario assumes total net cash generated over
the 12 year field life is £36.5 million.

Under the conservative scenario, therefore, net cash is forecast to be generated at an average of £1.76m pa over 10 years, under the optimistic scenario, at an average of £3.04m pa over 12 years.

Good to see UKOG rise on a positive RNS - long may it continue!

Brent (oanda) is up, at $60.10.

£4.35m of the loan remains.

5% of the present market cap is about £3.4m.

We're in, or very close to, the zone where 1 institution could mop up all of the remaining convertible loan.

We'll take that as a yes, then.

The MMs could have raised the offer price to 1.30p but raised it to 1.40p instead.

Does that mean they seek to discourage buying at these levels because they are short of stock to sell?

Fossil fuel!

You've lost me, wealdpwr:

When you said:

1/ Secondly, the only way you can come up with the 4p figure is to perform an NPV ( which can be manipulated by the chosen time horizon), decide on a multiple and then divide by the share outstanding.

what did you mean by "decide on a multiple"?

2/ Of course you can use an NPV to evaluate a share price!

What do you do in the case of any long-term contract, wait for each periodic receipt to be accounted for?

4p = GL's calculation of the Net Present Value of Saltfleetby.

Tack on, say, a modest 2p for Balcombe and the other assets = total of 6p per share.

Current share price: 1.15p.

Discount to underlying assets per share: 81%.

At least pennydealer has raised his sights, from 0.38p to 0.78p, that's more than doubling his forecast.

wealdpwr,

The extent to which the NPV of Saltfleetby is taken into consideration in order to evaluate the share price is for each investor to decide;

there's no multiple involved in determining an NPV;

4p is a round figure reflecting the nature of the assumptions made in determining it. If GL had come up with 4.017p per share, then the precision of the figure should have set alarm bells ringing, but he didn't.

Today's best trade: 615,950 at 69.20p (at 15:17).

Enjoy your time in Croatia.

Doubt if they produced a net present value for Brockham - how could they forecast revenues?

But I wasn't following ANGS until earlier the Spring of this year, after the share price fell below 5p.

No, scallywag, the NPV of Saltfleetby is based on forecast net cash flows, so reflects forecast revenues and costs.

The share price is disconnected from the NPV: the share price may not rise, but the NPV will!