Member Info for ocelot

Just one more comment on GL's Net Present Value figure of 4p for Saltfleetby:

if the underlying assumptions remain the same, that 4p will automatically increase between now and the start-up of production, with the reduction of the interval of time to be discounted.

There remains the possibility of another project.

I think it was CharlieLondon who reported that, at the shareholder update meeting on 30/09, they spoke of having whittled down about 15 leads to 1.

Beat me to 205, broadland!

FC Title Holder - 180
Boyo 186
Withoutt 190
Hawkey 200
Wolfbag 202
broadland 205
ocelot 207

Suppose it's a question of probabilities:

if you think there is no chance of Saltfleetby coming good, you totally ignore the NPV;

if you think there is every chance it will come good, you integrate the NPV in full;

between those 2 extremes, there is a wide range of probabilities.

Crocqman,

Imho, you are not disagreeing with me, because your comments do not change the fact that the calculation of the NPV of projected cash flows provides a value now, today.

But you are arguing that the NPV should not yet be taken into account in evaluating Angus's share price.

That is a matter each investor will decide for him/her-self.

In finance, the net present value or net present worth applies to a series of cash flows occurring at different times. The present value of a cash flow depends on the interval of time between now and the cash flow. It also depends on the discount rate. NPV accounts for the time value of money.

GL's calculation of the NPV of Saltfleetby of 4p is, therefore, the value of Saltfleetby's projected cash flows to Angus NOW, TODAY, not in some still-to-be-determined future.

YL,

My point was that he's not a day trader.

GL to you, too.

the only likely buyers are day traders looking to ride a spike...
-----------------------------
But we have a new PI who's taken a stake of over 4%, so he's not a day trader, is he?

Nothing succeeds like success. When this share price starts to rise, it will keep on going, imho.

You are bearish, I am bullish, we are both entitled to our opinions and to express them.

UKOFGB+NI, simple!

The Curse of the Kimmeridge?

:-)

Understood, E_AL, best wishes.

Personally, I hope that if you wait for tangible results, the present opportunity will no longer be there!

It's very simple:

if you don't believe ANGS can recover any credibility, then you avoid;

if you believe it can recover some credibility, then you buy.

YL,

A 500+% gain on HUR would mean a market cap of nearly £5bn - personally, think the likelihood of such a gain is higher with Angus.

E_AL,

Couldn't agree with you more that credibility has been lost, GL recognises this himself:

"Whether or not we can get confidence and liquidity back into the share is a matter of careful
management and, I hope proven, competence in the future".

The share price wouldn't be where it is if the company's credibility was higher.

And that is where the market opportunity exists today.

Imho, the market won't wait until next year to begin to integrate the company's net cash flow forecasts for Saltfleetby.

With the share price at 1.15p, GL's Net Present Value of those forecasts of 4-7p beats the return available on cash deposits by a very large margin.

It's more attractive than it was, because the starting price is now so low.

There's a market full of other companies out there, but not all of those will necessarily live up to their original promise either and if you're looking for a 500+% gain in the medium term, then they will involve risk, too.

IPO price 6p, high 35p, so it multiplied by 5.83x to the peak.

5.83x 1.15p = 6.70p. That is achievable and, imho, can be exceeded.

YL,

He's not going to say IS worth, is he, not when it is based on a series of assumptions re forecast cash flows?

With a share price of 1.15p, the risk/reward profile is most definitely "no longer what it was", it is vastly more attractive to new investors now.

"US, China said to reach partial deal, could set up trade truce" is Bloomberg's headline ... and oil and the Dow are seeing good gains.

If we add into the mix the comments CharlieLondon made in his post of 14:05, then one can perceive a route back to double figures for the share price (imho).