Member Info for ocelot

MichaelGoodwill,

Do you or don't you have confidence in management?

Alan2017 doesn't and his negative posts flow from his point of view.

I do and my positive posts flow from mine.

In the immediate wake of the Brockham RNS of 28/06/19, there were some who were predicting the imminent demise of Angus. Over time, therefore, the negative posts on this board have actually become less negative.

It's been almost a year since the shock of the Brockham RNS of 28/06/19, which brought the share price down with a heavy thud from the preceding close of 3.55p.
The last year may have been one of consolidation in terms of the share price, but the company itself has not stood still, actively working to progress its projects, principally Saltfleetby and Balcombe.
Suspect that the length of this period of consolidation suggests that the ultimate recovery in the share price could be very sharp.

Possible equity issue at some stage, yes, but the prospect of Saltfleetby cash flow could open up to them new sources of finance, too.

Paul Forrest who runs Forum Energy Services Limited is well known to Angus and, having bid successfully for the Saltfleetby Asset, brought Angus into the transaction on terms already disclosed.

Not at all sure the above sentence, if this is the one you mean, provides the confirmation you suggest below:

... The Business development aka Captain America von Tidswell didn't have anything to do with Saltfleetby as confirmed by Angus themselves...

You've referred to first oil again, please speak of first gas, since that it was you mean.

Agree that £2.5m does not cover all of the "most likely" £2.79 capital expenditure in 2020.

Agree that the 2021 sidetrack will require further capital expenditure.

Expect that Saltfleetby should be up and running by then and think it may open up alternative sources of finance to them.

... The Business development aka Captain America von Tidswell didn't have anything to do with Saltfleetby as confirmed by Angus themselves...
----------------------------
I seem to have missed that, can you provide a link to the confirmation, please?

PS: and, of course, he may have been behind Saltfleetby.

May well have been involved in the overseas acquisition, about which GL gave few details away in his answer to an Investor Question.
But would expect him to have a bigger role to play next year, once Saltfleetby is up and running.

Difficult to extrapolate from 18/19's figures, because, presumably, they reflect operations undertaken at Brockham and Balcombe during that financial year. We will soon have more up-to-date information at our disposal with the publication of the half-year report.

But, yes, of course, the "North of £4m" of cash resources has to cover running costs as well as capital expenditure.

And, yes, Angus isn't Warren Buffett with more than $100bn sitting on his balance sheet, so it is for company management to match their financial resources to their financial commitments.

So, agreed, the £2.5m will not cover all of the £2.79m "most likely" capital cost estimate to achieve first gas before the year end, but, at the last count, their cash resources were "North of £4m".

Whoops - when you wrote £2.79m to first oil you meant £2.79m to first gas!

From p46 of the CPR, so no problem for the source of information:

AEWB is carrying a range of capital cost estimates to achieve First Gas before January 1st, 2021.
Table 6-1 refers: Low: £1.83m, Most Likely: £2.79m; High: £3.81m, of which £2.5m is payable by
Saltfleetby Energy (or £1.83m for Low case, leaving a balance of £0.67m for 2021 capex).

But why are you deducting £2.79m from £2.5m and not from their cash resources figure of "North of £4m".

And where does the £2.79m figure for first oil come from?

Do you have a reference for that, please?

Questions are limited to those that are AGM specific:

To ensure that shareholders can still participate in an orderly and safe AGM during the Covid-19 pandemic, this year's meeting will be held via an electronic platform. The platform will permit shareholders to hear the meeting's chairman and to submit questions on the resolutions and business of the meeting. AGM specific questions can be submitted via the platform during a 48 hour period from 11:00 am 13 June 2020 and real-time during the AGM. Questions submitted via any other method than the the platform will not be answered. (RNS of 26/05)

PPS: or some other documentary support?

PS: do you have an RNS reference for the first oil estimation, please?

You can forget about Holmwood (imho), it is not on the horizon at present.

Nobody is suggesting that their cash resources will remain intact while they are investing in Saltfleetby and, hopefully, Balcombe, and, of course, they have continuing running costs.

But Saltfleetby raises the prospect of cash coming in, in the pretty near future.

2020 gross capital costs in the mid-case CPR forecast are forecast to be £2.8m, so about half that, £1.4m, for ANGS.

May have misread the post.

Haven't read them in full.

Put off by the opening 2 lines:

"North of £4m" includes the £2.5 million provided by Saltfleetby which is being used to get to First Gas.

Angus have predicted it will cost £2.79million to get to first oil, so deducting the £2.5 million leaves them £290,000 short.

No reason to deduct £2.5m.

A technical point re the CPR:

it was effective as of 28/02/20.

As time elapses, therefore, the net present value will rise, because there is less time to be discounted at 10% pa (although, of course, there may be some compensating time-delays vis-a-vis the planned timetable).