Platinum price forecast14 Jun 2015 17:46
Thomson Reuters recently released its GFMS Platinum & Palladium Survey 2015, and in it, noted that the platinum market to be in a deep deficit last year "(prior to inventory movements) of 1.02 million ounces, singularly owing to major strike-related production stoppages in South Africa." The 2014 deficit comes on the heels of surplus in 7 of the last 8 years; the deficit is expected to continue.
Meanwhile, palladium has been a market in deficit since 2007. The GFMS team estimates "the palladium market deficit last year at 1.58 million ounces, representing the most severe market imbalance for more than a decade."
GFMS Platinum, Palladium Price Forecast
According to the survey, the average platinum price is forecast to fall by 16% year-on-year, averaging $1,170/oz, about 5% higher than May's closing price on the MetalMiner IndX. Analysts indicate that this suggests a closing of platinum's discount to gold. The average palladium price forecast is broadly flat year-on-year at $800/oz, not too much higher than current prices.