Member Info for observer842

LoL. The Suez Canal incident pushed charter rates up across the board. The journey is typically 50-60 days + 3-4 days loading unloading at each end + a few days waiting around + 5-10 days travelling to Santana to pick up the ore. Just finger in the air estimates but I don't think it unreasonable we charter for circa 70 days...

See my post on 17 May 2021 21:00 for the background to my original $1m estimate, which I'm now upping to $1.5-$2m.

Iron ore prices and shipping costs are quite correlated, and the Suez Canal blockage is still having an impact... Estimated shipping costs when iron ore was sub $100/t were relatively cheap, less than $1m per ship IIRC, though there was a spike a few summers ago which we appeared to use in our calculations for some time to be on the conservative side IMHO...

I know what you mean @EV_Bull. It's possible the shipping costs at this time might be higher than you are estimating for a few reasons. I estimated this previously: "Maybe $20,000 for our ships at an educated guess - handysize. And for 50 days is roughly $1m per ship.", but that was earnings for them, not how much we pay to charter, and the number of days is possibly too low as it doesn't take into account travelling empty, waiting around and loading/unloading. So we might be looking more like: $25k * 70 days, which including port & labour costs might be $2m per ship. If we use $140/t * 43kt this is $6m revenue. So 3 ships is $12m net conservatively, but what else needs to come out of that? The bank's 10%? Our repayment to get the process started and other initialisation costs? I just think it's a possibility that 4 is required to realise the $10m net, that's all, though I suspect 3 will do it on balance :-)))

I agree with this take @EV_Bull. However, I think it's also possible that just a little more than 3 ships might be required to realise net $10m, and if this is the case I can imagine the fallback scenario if we haven't concluded formally in time that we have an agreement with Unamgen to fill the remaining holds of the 4th ship with their ore.

@Legalease That's possible, but whilst that request goes through the courts I can't see anything sailing, and you saw how long it took last time...

The latter @tomcat. Currently to be named.

Well I did say subject to change... MZ: 22,23,27; C:25,27,31; MV: 27,31,04 which means there are now 4 scheduled to sail for the first J and 3 for the second. 1 for A, so far. All subject to change - especially that first J I would have thought as 4!? :-))))

It still feels like news could drop at any time, and potentially during trading hours, unless they've managed to arrange the final ratification to be a PM hearing with Amapa 4 hours behind us.

@tomcat - they can't ship more than $10m net. Not sure why you think this might be a possibility? Does anyone else? EV_Bull? Once the deal goes through and we take our 20% they can then ship the rest.

It's going to be an interesting few days/week or two :-))))

Ob.

We can do ramping, err, I mean promoting of the company as well if you like @ValueandGrowth!

Here we go:

"Cadence Minerals, Alien Metals and Riverfort Global Opportunities" (10 May)
https://audioboom.com/posts/7862114-cadence-minerals-alien-metals-and-riverfort-global-opportunities
===[
So the next step is to carry on shipping this material, I envisage that by the time we hit the net $10m we will have reached an agreement with the banks.
]===

Two ship loads have sailed already and the third is scheduled (provisionally!) as below:

http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/operacional/programacao-de-navios
===[
Navio ETA ETS Origem Destino Dono Op.Port. Agência Carga Sit. Ton. Mov.
Medi Zuoz 23/mai 27/mai DEV Norte Trading Serveporto Minério PREVISÃO 45.000,000
]===

It's likely, though not certain, that this 3rd shipment will take the net proceeds over $10m, but if it doesn't the next ship in is CURRENTLY scheduled for DEV too which will almost certainly do it.

Additionally there is an outstanding "Conclusions for Decision" that was made in the main case in the courts on 15/05/2021. It might not be the decision we are waiting for, but it's good odds it is IMHO. For reference in the past year there have been around 10 conclusions for decisions with the decision normally following the same day in recent times or the following day, but sometimes 2-3 weeks later in earlier times.

You'll have to add up 1 + 1 + 1 for yourself, but to me it's looking likely we expect to conclude with the banks by the end of this month, but obviously this news could land at any time. Today even... I've been buying strongly since this podcast as I've decided I'm OK buying around the BoD's recently issued options of 29p which I estimated were worth £1m (£250k each) to them at the time (01 May 2021 10:02). i.e. it looks to me that they agreed to take a £250k bonus as options rather than as cash. Well you would if you were confident Amapa was going to complete favourably wouldn't you? ;-)

And not to mention Sonora, Cinovec & Yangibana? LoL :-)))) DYOR. IMHO.

Ob.

Great spot! I wonder what the delay was? Perhaps the court has judged in our favour? Wishful thinking! :-))))

I'm not sure sure it's set off @MLQ

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:421208/mmsi:357658000/imo:9668398/vessel:MARLIN_V

Might be one to keep an eye on?

https://compassmar.com/reports/Compass%20Maritime%20Weekly%20Market%20Report.pdf

That's great @165zephyr - a few key phrases unblocked my search deadlock and I was able to find this document which sheds a lot of light on the industry, especially tables 5 and 6:

"Safe Bulkers, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2021 Results" (May 05, 2021)
https://www.globenewswire.com/fr/news-release/2021/05/05/2223866/0/en/Safe-Bulkers-Inc-Reports-First-Quarter-2021-Results.html

Many thanks to your brother. :-)

Lol, you pretty much got it @MLQ. And when you tell someone to "go", you could be giving them a certain "V" sign, depending on how polite you are... ;-)

lol. I'll let you ponder that one. No doubt MB will get it ;-)

Go fish, Bill = Marlin V

We have a winner!

If it's going to arrive on time it'll have to set off soon!

Supposedly. Got anywhere with my clue? It's yet to set sail.

http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/operacional/programacao-de-navios

IMHO court movement on the weekend (conclusions for decision on Saturday and more yesterday) and the ship setting sail too indicates news is potentially imminent. Could be that we have finalised with the banks and we are now waiting on the judgement today, with news this afternoon or tomorrow if favourable. Of course this is just speculation, but it is a distinct possibility in my humble opinion...