Member Info for observer842

Hopefully no one believed it was for us @EV_Bull... It's for C. Order for pier 1 is, currently, D (in port), C, D, A.

Yes

It's going to be a busy time round here if the deal closes in the next week or two so I thought I'd get the port watching links shipshape in preparation ;-)

================
Public port images
-------------------------
MEDI BRISBANE in pier 1
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2021-05-08&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
OSIOS DAVID in pier 1
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2021-03-29&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

High resolution, but unknown date:
https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19
https://what3words.com/rare.then.moats?maptype=satellite

Private port images
--------------------------
https://what3words.com/hugs.admires.respects?maptype=satellite
Stockpiles:
https://what3words.com/forecast.screamed.massive?maptype=satellite
https://what3words.com/happy.tractor.bunch?maptype=satellite
As pictured here:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Port-South-1030x572.jpg

Port schedules & ship tracking
----------------------------------------
https://serveporto.com.br/atuacao/macapa-ap/
https://www.myshiptracking.com/ports/port-of-santana-in-br-brazil-id-6679
https://www.vesselfinder.com/ports/BRSAN001
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?recognized_next_port_in|begins|SANTANA|recognized_next_port_in=2476
https://www.fleetmon.com/ports/santana_brsan_2955/
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/operacional/programacao-de-navios
https://shipnext.com/port/santana-brsan-bra
https://shipfix.com/ship-directory/1

Analysis & prices
----------------------
https://compassmar.com/reports/Compass%20Maritime%20Weekly%20Market%20Report.pdf
https://www.dnfanalysis.com/CMS/imageFolder/1621268017.pdf (Anyone got a link that doesn't need updating?)
https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/fdinew2.jsp
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html
http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=i

Social media
-----------------
https://www.facebook.com/docasdesantana
https://www.facebook.com/Serveporto

By the way it's currently: MZ: 22,23,27; C: 26,27,31; MV: 29,31,04. All subject to change...

LoL @Bannor. I don't know about other rampers, er, I mean promoters of the company but I certainly don't want the share price to go over 30p when I've decided to continue buying on the back of all of the (circumstantial) evidence I've posted which indicates the deal is about to complete! I share in the hope others will tell me where I'm wrong and to improve my understanding from what others share in return - I had to rely on my own devil's advocating last week without you around to temper my enthusiasm which just looks like flip-flopping to the untrained eye when in fact I'm quite confident we are practically there! Too much coincidence IMHO...

@tomcat - try again, which will be hard as it hasn't set off yet! It's not too far away... ;-)

Indeed @bigdouble. The third ship is now scheduled to arrive tomorrow, and might even dock tomorrow if the dredging finishes early, Sunday otherwise...

Incidentally, I think the (English speaking) press pay too much attention to the seaborne price when commenting on the swings of iron ore prices, when in fact its the China domestic which is most important. This is because the former includes the swings of shipping costs, whilst the latter less so... You'll see it's been rising fairly consistently - same as previous post but more data:

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date 62% Fe domestic fines(US$) Seaborne index 62% Fe fines
2021-05-20 193.32 208.60
2021-05-19 193.31 214.60
2021-05-18 192.40 223.60
2021-05-17 189.49 215.60
2021-05-14 188.21 209.40
2021-05-13 186.15 217.50
2021-05-12 183.41 233.50
2021-05-11 179.05 228.60
2021-05-10 172.66 229.60
2021-05-08 171.24 212.10
2021-05-07 169.57 212.10
2021-05-06 167.21 201.80
2021-04-30 166.27 187.00
2021-04-29 165.43 190.80
2021-04-28 163.74 190.70
2021-04-27 162.91 193.70
2021-04-26 161.56 191.50
2021-04-25 160.97 185.30
2021-04-23 160.62 185.30
2021-04-22 157.73 183.70
2021-04-21 156.99 185.70
2021-04-20 156.22 187.70
2021-04-19 152.40 181.00
2021-04-16 151.96 177.70
2021-04-15 151.15 177.20
2021-04-14 150.70 172.60
2021-04-13 150.36 172.30
2021-04-12 149.26 172.90
2021-04-09 148.90 172.40
2021-04-08 144.98 172.30
]===

That's a great addition @Tradecraft. Corresponds reasonably well with the custeel price differentials I shared yesterday, and I guess is just one of many contract types which are available!

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date 62% Fe domestic fines(US$) Seaborne index 62% Fe fines
2021-05-20 193.32 208.60
2021-05-19 193.31 214.60
2021-05-18 192.40 223.60
2021-05-17 189.49 215.60
]===

Indeed, we are about to enter a very interesting period, one way or another. :-))) Qualification in the courts yesterday...

From our perspective the RNS could land at any time. This is my definition of imminent. Something which is imminent could take years in practice.

By the way, if you haven't guessed, I'm trying to temper my own enthusiasm in the absence of @Bannor. LoL! Surely the deal is imminent!

As I said @EV_Bull. 3 shipments is more likely than 4 IMHO, but when @Kiran said 2-3 shipments I took that to mean after the shipment that had already been shipped. i.e. 3-4 shipments, so it could be close that in practice 3.2 is needed. Where did he said 2-3?

"Timecharter Hire Rates"

The end of April is the latest one I could find with the timecharter high rates in:

https://www.dnfanalysis.com/CMS/imageFolder/1619454417.pdf

I'll see your nice links @EV_Bull and raise: https://www.dnfanalysis.com/CMS/imageFolder/1621268017.pdf ;-)

It's complicated, but just to elaborate a little bit, the reason why seaborne prices are usually (always?) higher is because they have an element of shipping costs included. e.g. a difference of $40/t between domestic fines and seaborne on a 40kt shipment implies shipping costs of $1.6m.

As I said @tomcat shipping rates and iron ore prices, especially seaborne prices are very correlated. Have a look at recent spot price differences between China domestic, imported and seaborne. You'll see that the highest column changes as do the differences. Futures are even more interesting! Demand is important of course - I'm just highlighting that shipping costs are relevant too and fluctuate considerably so it's important to use the latest information.

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date 62% Fe domestic fines(US$) 62% Fe imported fines (US$) Seaborne index 62% Fe fines
2021-05-19 193.31 217.61 214.60
2021-05-18 192.40 223.06 223.60
2021-05-17 189.49 219.64 215.60
2021-05-14 188.21 218.27 209.40
2021-05-13 186.15 227.81 217.50
2021-05-12 183.41 237.13 233.50
2021-05-11 179.05 236.74 228.60
2021-05-10 172.66 238.64 229.60
2021-05-08 171.24 215.58 212.10
2021-05-07 169.57 203.10 212.10
2021-05-06 167.21 192.49 201.80
2021-04-30 166.27 184.19 187.00
2021-04-29 165.43 185.53 190.80
2021-04-28 163.74 184.64 190.70
2021-04-27 162.91 185.85 193.70
2021-04-26 161.56 184.43 191.50
2021-04-25 160.97 179.85 185.30
2021-04-23 160.62 175.66 185.30
2021-04-22 157.73 175.75 183.70
2021-04-21 156.99 175.67 185.70
2021-04-20 156.22 174.03 187.70
2021-04-19 152.40 170.19 181.00
2021-04-16 151.96 166.32 177.70
2021-04-15 151.15 164.86 177.20
2021-04-14 150.70 161.82 172.60
2021-04-13 150.36 160.77 172.30
2021-04-12 149.26 159.72 172.90
2021-04-09 148.90 158.13 172.40
2021-04-08 144.98 157.79 172.30
2021-04-07 145.15 157.97 172.50
2021-04-06 148.23 157.24 170.50
2021-04-02 147.73 156.00 166.50
2021-04-01 147.88 155.29 166.50
2021-03-31 148.24 154.24 164.50
2021-03-30 148.05 155.18 165.50
2021-03-29 149.16 156.95 167.50
2021-03-26 150.00 155.56 161.40
2021-03-25 151.50 155.09 160.00
2021-03-24 151.94 154.83 160.70
2021-03-23 153.08 154.31 160.40
2021-03-22 157.45 154.52 156.20
2021-03-19 157.36 157.28 160.10
2021-03-18 157.49 160.27 165.80
2021-03-17 157.55 159.62 165.70
2021-03-16 157.81 160.03 166.20
2021-03-15 158.34 156.41 163.70
2021-03-12 158.62 157.43 165.80
2021-03-11 158.93 159.85 171.20
2021-03-10 158.64 155.71 164.70
2021-03-09 156.88 157.66 163.70
2021-03-08 156.59 164.49 173.90
2021-03-05 156.58 162.36 174.40
2021-03-04 157.20 167.37 178.20
2021-03-03 157.21 165.95 177.00
2021-03-02 155.31 164.41 175.40
2021-03-01 155.47 163.43 174.10
2021-02-26 154.68 165.38 176.60
2021-02-25 153.81 165.58 174.10
2021-02-24 153.77 164.39 172.30
2021-02-23 152.84 164.84 172.60
2021-02-22 152.40 168.48 174.80
]===

Slightly dated, but it's the first concrete figure I've seen for Supramax vessels, which these vessels can probably be classed as, or Handymax which are even harder to find:

"Baltic Dry Index scores 15th straight gain as capesize rates hit 11-year high" (May 05, 2021)
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3691156-baltic-dry-index-scores-15th-straight-gain-as-capesize-rates-hit-11-year-high
===[
Average daily earnings for capesizes climbed $2,351 to $42,959 and average daily earnings for panamaxes added $470 to $24,515, while supramax average earnings fell slightly to $23,433/day.
]===

My understanding is that the charter rate will be around $5k more than this, depending on the ship of course. i.e. If earnings were zero, the charter rate would be the cost of running the ship = $5k per day, which they may very well decide not to do...

You might be right about the 42-49 days. Got any links? my 50-60 days is from memory and might be cape size... How long did OD take? If 49 days then 70 days total charter would likely be the upper limit I would say. :-))) What's your source for the current daily earning rates?

Just finger in the air estimates but I don't think it unreasonable we MIGHT charter for circa 70 days...

But we've no idea, as we don't know the contract or charter details...