Member Info for observer842

Points 5 & 6 of the M&G LoI...

I wonder how the review is progressing?

"Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2021" (26 August 2021)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428214199398325
===[
Lithium Technologies Pty Ltd and Lithium Suppliers Pty Ltd ('LT' and 'LS')
Cadence owns 25.85% of LT and LS, which owns or has applied for three prospective hard rock lithium assets in Australia and six exploration applications in Argentina.

With the increase in lithium compound pricing, we have seen renewed interest in hard rock lithium projects in Australia. Our assets are prospective for pegmatites and especially our Litchfield exploration licence, which is adjacent to Core Lithium's Finniss Project. A feasibility study was completed on the Finniss Project, which shows a pre-tax net present value of AU$384 million.

Given the progress being made at the Finniss Project, we will be reviewing the targeting and fieldwork studies carried out in 2019 to determine if it is worth pursuing further exploration in our joint venture areas.
]===

Looks to be inconsequential too:

"Is the party only just getting started for ASX lithium shares?" (September 9, 2021)
https://www.monexsecurities.com.au/insights/news/au-market-news/is-the-party-only-just-getting-started-for-asx-lithium-shares/
===[
As a result, the price of lithium carbonate has sprung from about US$5400 per tonne a year ago, to approximately US$19,000 as of today. In a similar fashion, lithium spodumene prices have flown from around US$370 per tonne to more than US$900 per tonne.
]===

Concentrate prices of $370-$900/t and shipping rates $10-$100/t - the latter being dramatically high at the moment due to various reasons. Bodes well for our Australian Lithium ventures! :-)

Indeed @Bannor. And then there is transport costs impacting iron ore operations. I've been meaning to look how much high shipping costs have been, or will impact on the Lithium concentrate (spodumene) producers. It's a drop in the ocean for the Lithium/Carbonate/Hydroxide producers.

LoL @MBW. How about this?

At last report we had 17,463,864 EMH shares and 148,649,098 KDNC shares in issue. This means EMH@77p our holding is worth £13.45m or 9p a share.

The summary from my EMH post:

"I make it that an 77p per share EMH is 8% of a fully derisked expanded spot based lithium post-tax NPV8 of £9.40 per share."

All else being equal, EMH@£9.40 would result in our holding being worth £164m or £1.10 a share. :-)))

Let's hope this time round the lithium market doesn't collapse eh @Bannor! ;-)

Ob.

LoL @Bannor, I've just spent its batteries over on EMH ;-)

https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/EV/Lithium-prices
===[
Lithium hydroxide weekly price
Fastmarkets MB lithium hydroxide monohydrate: min 56.5% LiOH2O battery grade, spot prices CIF China, Japan and Korea, $/KG.

Date Price (US$ per kilogram)
09 September 2021 19.25
02 September 2021 17.75
26 August 2021 16.50
19 August 2021 16.25
]===

As we know WHI in February estimated a risked "today" fair value NPV8 of 129.8p/sh based on conservative inputs, namely: $12,500/t LiOH, $21,000/t tin, 50% probability the project makes it to full production, and 10% probability the size of the project doubles from year 5:

"Lithium development on track in the heart of Europe" (09 February 2021)
https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/20210212-FN-EMH-090221.pdf

From table 1 it's easy to see that once expansion plans are announced and the 10% goes to 50% that the 129.8p/sh goes to roughly £2 per share. These estimates are based on the now apparent conservative Lithium and Tin prices.

The sensitivity graph in figure 5 shows that roughly for every 20% increase in the lithium price the NPV of the project increases by 50%. This means that if today's spot (54% higher than WHI baseline of $12.50) were used their NPV8 of an expanded project would increase to roughly £4.70/sh (£2 + £2 * 1.35). And for those that like to use the fully derisked DCF value that's £9.40/sh. This doesn't take into account the increase of Tin prices to above £30,000/t in recent times.

I make it that an 77p per share EMH is 8% of a fully derisked expanded spot based lithium post-tax NPV8 of £9.40 per share.

The Cinovec project is particularly sensitive to lithium prices. Just how high will lithium prices continue to rise? If negotiations are yet to be finalised I'd wager someone will blink soon! ;-)

Corrections appreciated!

I wonder how the "I make it that an 80p per share EMH is 10% of a fully derisked expanded spot based lithium NPV8 of £8 per share." from my post on 04 Sep 2021 10:31 for $17.75/kg looks for $19.25/kg? $$$

Indeed @Fingers, prices are continuing to reflect the growing lithium shortages! ;-)

https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/EV/Lithium-prices
===[
Lithium hydroxide weekly price
Fastmarkets MB lithium hydroxide monohydrate: min 56.5% LiOH2O battery grade, spot prices CIF China, Japan and Korea, $/KG.

Date Price (US$ per kilogram)
09 September 2021 19.25
02 September 2021 17.75
26 August 2021 16.50
19 August 2021 16.25
]===

LoL @jimb. Looking impressive. Feeling good about our Sonora JV's & EMH holding, and perhaps we'll hear something soon from our other Lithium assets? Meanwhile Amapa progresses... ;-)

The way lithium prices are heading, they may have to...

https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/EV/Lithium-prices
===[
Lithium hydroxide weekly price
Fastmarkets MB lithium hydroxide monohydrate: min 56.5% LiOH2O battery grade, spot prices CIF China, Japan and Korea, $/KG.

Date Price (US$ per kilogram)
09 September 2021 19.25
02 September 2021 17.75
26 August 2021 16.50
19 August 2021 16.25
]===

Thanks @Barksy. It's based on the fairly comprehensive lithium update section in Bacanora's half year report.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BCN/half-year-report/15128279

Reading through the dozen and a half paragraphs in that section really makes you wonder how their BoD could have recommended the deal in all sincerity. The mind boggles. I suspect it wasn't written by them, because if it was it reads like a slap in the face IMHO. Just hope whatever the outcome is it's favourable for our JV's!

@jimb, I'd value your opinion on anything of note worth commenting on or challenging.

Ob.

Indeed @EV. Who can know the mind of an other? I just hope our number of steps ahead is one more than theirs! LoL. I'm not sure whether I'd RNS the situation either way if I were @Kiran. Perhaps better to see how it plays out if we are in the final stages of them capitulating or wanting to drag it out to the bitter end where they stand to block the project (unlikely the courts will agree IMHO), or risk becoming unsecured creditors (much more likely IMHO). Additionally I wonder if they must act as a Union because the paperwork and costs are simply too complex to consider this arrangement being split up towards the end goal of allowing those banks who agree to do so. Perhaps recent turns of events are simply brinkmanship? And nothing more. Both parties need to feel they have won, or both parties need to feel they have lost. Win-win, lose-lose, either works. Just don't blink! LoL. ;-)

And I should point out that the project continues either way, becoming more valuable each day, all things being equal of course! ;-)

@jimb. The only decision I see that might go against us at the moment, though unlikely IMHO, is the one @Bannor pointed out related to shipping another $10m net. I suspect the market doesn't quite understand how likely it is that we get our 20% one way or another, just some ways faster than others! ;-)

Now that is a very interesting possibility! Did you see one translation: "Attached Request for Injunction/Advanced Guardianship"?

I thought so on the original translation, but a second opinion made me think it simply relates to what @Bannor posted yesterday. But I can't be sure, for sure. For sure.

Indeed! But each to their own @Bannor, each to their own.

Possibly related to yesterday's hoo-ha?

@EV. What do you make of what just landed in the main case!!!?