Member Info for observer842

Indeed - a LOT of historical CapEx has been spent on the project. We are talking rehabilitation costs a fraction of this. Don't think the market realises this...

@Kiran. If you are reading this, do take a close read of:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/si79az/comment/hv9c5tm/

The evidence is there that in their latest "plan" Hastings were planning to mine all of the JV area in the first 1-12 years. Maybe in practice that is years 1-6 in their 100% and 6-12 from our area, but it's not 10-15 as was suggested in the Master Investor presentation. Of course if you have more recent information, and are content there is no wool being pulled over your eyes, then as you were! :-)

"Master Investor Show 2022 – Kiran Morzaria – Cadence Minerals"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXecLNBB3tU
===[
Kiran Morzaria, CEO at Cadence Minerals, presents at Master Investor Show 2022. In his talk, Kiran introduces Cadence Minerals' investment strategy, and gives an update on progress made and scheduled works for 2022-23 for some of the company's iron ore, lithium and rare earth exploration projects in Brazil, Europe, Australia, and Mexico.
]===

Sounds like Yangibana might be next :-)))

Indeed @EV. This is hugely significant and derisks our involvement further still. Looking forward to seeing that PFS or what WHI makes of it all.

Fantastic! :-)))

There's also a good chance that stage 1 is 22ktpa LCE from the LV area and 22ktpa LCE from the 30% JV area, both expanding to 44ktpa in 2-4 years, for a total of 100ktpa Lithium Hydroxide (mono-hydrate) production per year (88ktpa LCE)

I personally think there is a good chance we could be looking at a 50ktpa (44ktpa LCE) stage 2 fed solely from the KDNC 30% JV area a couple of years after stage 1, also for 50ktpa, reaches full production.

@tomcat, for my thoughts take a look at my Sonora comment:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/comment/i1a1f9v/

Incidentally, freight down, iron ore up. :-)))

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

For the benefit of those new looking in, I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/tvqbde/comment/i3cdlsr/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/tvqbde/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
===[
Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% to 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008 with anticipated news flow over the coming weeks in the run up to the PFS due in July, including: shipping commencement; rehabilitation progress; financing & off-take; agreements reestablished to increase mine life.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and potential impact on KDNC of massively increased stage 1 plans to 50ktpa of Lithium hydroxide and beyond forthcoming.

LT/LS Lithium: Finalisation of agreement to sell 31.5% stake worth up to £3.72m to KDNC. Interview explaining decision to reduce risk whilst maintaining exposure to both the upside of the buyer's success and of the expected Lithium supply shortfall.

Yangibana Rare Earths: Sale/funding/toll or other value realisation agreements including whether Hastings plan to officially bring KDNC's 30% JV forward in the mining schedule from years 12-15 as suggested in July 2021.

EMH Lithium: DFS/partner/offtake/funding announcements for phase 1 of the project.
]===

Follow the links for better formatting, corroborating links and much more information!

Ob.

Substantial rise in Lithium to above $80/kg

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

And just how far will prices climb? Currently above $80/kg

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Blimey!

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

How presumptuous of me. Their approach!

What @EV said! lol. I've added various comments and workings to this post, and also get around $550-$600m range at today's shipping and spot prices, but prefer his approach!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/comment/i33nith/

It's quite eye-watering @EV!. $61/t Fe 62% and $80/t Fe 65% were used in the JRP which resulted in:

http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2887382
===[
At full production and using US$61 per tonne of 62% Fe Amapá is forecast to have:
o an average net revenue after shipping of US$266 million per annum,
o and an average EBITDA of US$136 million per annum.
]===

Today the seaborne spot of these are $159.70/t Fe 62% and $183.10/t Fe 65%:
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp

The shipping cost used in the JRP was $9/t, and recent estimates of shipping costs assuming Handy to Cape transshipment are around $30-35/t, call the additional cost $25/t.

The additional EBITDA on top of the above $136m from the 4.4Mt of Fe 65% is $344m per annum (4.4Mt *($183.10/t - $80/t - $25/t)) at today's spot and estimated shipping costs, and $66m per annum (0.9Mt *($159.70/t - $61/t - $25/t)) from the 0.9Mt of 62% Fe per year.

Totals: $136m + $344m + $66m = $546m per annum EBITDA using today's spot and estimated increased shipping costs of $25/t over that used in the JRP.

That's circa $550m per annum EBITDA of which 27% is currently associated with KDNC with a first right of refusal, if additional funding is required into the project, to go to 49%! See below for my current understanding of this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q800za/comment/i2bukr3/

I wonder what it will take before others wake up to the Amapa opportunity? A very strong buy from me.

Ob.

No one going to point out the mistake? lol I'll try again...

It's quite eye-watering @EV!. $61/t Fe 62% and $80/t Fe 65% were used in the JRP which resulted in:

http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2887382
===[
At full production and using US$61 per tonne of 62% Fe Amapá is forecast to have:
o an average net revenue after shipping of US$266 million per annum,
o and an average EBITDA of US$136 million per annum.
]===

Today the seaborne spot of these are $159.70/t Fe 62% and $183.10/t Fe 65%:
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp

We know that freight costs are significantly higher than in the JRP, but if transshipment from Handy to Cape is performed it's likely a dent in the additional bottom line.

The additional EBITDA on top of the above $136m from the 4.9Mt of Fe 65% is $500m per annum (4.9Mt *($183.10/t - $80/t)) at today's spot.

I wonder what it will take before others wake up to the Amapa opportunity? A very strong buy from me.

Ob.

Indeed @EV: "£10m for Amapa, Sonora, Yangibana", and with the $3.5m for 7% valuing our 27% at £10m, that leaves Sonora and Yangibana valued at 0...

And lithium edges up to $69.58/kg:

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph