Member Info for observer842

Somewhere quiet. But for how long? ;-)

I figured it out... Post away.

I only have an account on lse so I have posted where I posted to you on Monday.

I'm happy to chat about REM/KDNC on here for tonight.

@Bannor: "....agree Dallas.... if they're that good why haven't the big boys snapped up promising licence areas on their bordering their existing they can afford to mothball them for the future after all"

Take a listen to the lithium Bull segment I linked to yesterday. In summary that's not how the big fishes operate. It's let the small fish explore; drill out; prove up; then take over or JV with the most promising of them.

As to the £1.6m charge. From the 2016 accounts: "Profit before taxation was adversely affected by a one-off financing (£1.6 million) charge associated with the issue of warrants linked to the US$15 million convertible loan note issued during the year." Don't you remember we uncovered the meaning of this in the past year? That's the value of the warrants (determined by standard means) we had to add to the books as a loss (which is good for tax purposes!). Put another way, that was the fair value of the warrants to the holders to entice them to lend. In practice practically zero warrants were issued, so that £1.6m was meaningless in effect (other than potentially reducing our tax liability). I questioned whether it needed to be added back to the books in the event of the warrants expiring. I never got an answer, but I think it's no in hindsight.

As for the failed TO... :-) The way I see it, Tesla were only going to get their Lithium from Sonora through our JV's: PS constantly refused to acknowledge this deal. Their LV area was always destined for China. Tesla were given an opportunity to fund, an agreement couldn't be reached. My suspicion is they were going to back us along with our Mexican backers to take control of BCN to force the JV's to be developed first and to provide Tesla, but that all fell through, leaving us with egg on our face after the first offer was made public. Perhaps one day the truth will out? It's pure speculation on my behalf of course.

Ob.

Agreed @Ivybush - plus not forgetting that the CapEx required for our Argentina & Australia assets is forecast to be significantly lower than that required for BCN, EMH & HAS. Nearly an order of magnitude lower. :-)

I'm trying to keep it real @Dallas based on the now. We all know I think that we could be worth over 1p this time next year! Goes without saying doesn't it ;-)

@Bannor. I learn from the past, but focus on the future. There are so many what if permutations that I could be all day here discussing them ;-). Clearly we ended up in one that is not so good compared to what could have been. Personally I believe that had we taken control of BCN that we would now be building a plant to supply lithium to Tesla. I also suspect that Tesla refused to back us in our attempt, leaving us with egg on our face, and we fell out with them as a consequence... Pure speculation of course ;-)

@KLUCK17. My view is that the market is valuing the total of our Leogang (10%), Sonora (30%), Greenland (100%), Yangibana (30%), Australia (up to 100%) and Argentina (up to 100%) directly held ventures at around £4.5-5m. Based on our ASX peers in a similar position I'm valuing them around £2-3m higher. Of course this is all pre completed funding. Yangibana and Sonora could be on the brink which could multibag their contributions to the total overnight ;-)

Our listed assets, BCN, EMH, MMS, AOU, CLY, NMX and LGC total around £7-7.5m, minus debt of around £2.7m results in around £4.5-5m from listed assets net debt.

Adding these together results in around £9-10m or roughly 0.11p. My Opinion is a Buy as I believe the market is placing too much discount on the new assets announced on Monday. I'm roughly at a 0.14p Hold. All calculation my own and based on yesterday's share prices. The situation changes, it always does! ;-)

Ob.

Blimey. I wish! Move the decimal point one place to the left or right as you see fit. ;-)

Correction: we should have paid off approaching £1m in debt by now, meaning the company is probably worth around £4.5-5m after debt on listed assets alone, which is around 0.055-0.6p a share. 1.1p including direct assets (excluding A&A), and 1.4p with the new Lithium Argentina and Australia assets. All my own estimates - DYOR ;-)

@maddog. Your valuation is your valuation, if you don't want to assign any value to our directly held assets that's your prerogative. The company is probably worth around £4m after debt on listed assets alone, which is around 0.05p. My estimate includes Joint Venture and 100% owned assets and is conservatively around double that excluding the new Lithium A&A (Argentina and Australia) assets, which is inline with the market's view, and around 0.14p with these new assets.

I believed this undervaluation, along with great prospects for growth (licences granted!), warranted a change from a Hold to Buy Opinion, meaning I'm buying here again after an hiatus. However, my view is that until funding for the Lithium A&A assets is clarified the market is unlikely to value these as I do - hence why I state this as a risky Buy since it's a bit of a gamble that our Board of Directors have something lined up ;-)

Ob.

Ahem. 7 months. Time flies! ;-)

@maddog. That £2-3m is for our A&A lithium assets alone. I don't know if you realise I changed from a Hold of 3 months or so to a Buy on Monday on the back of this news which the market has yet to factor into our share price IMHO. These new Australian Lithium assets (the most important licences already granted) are an exciting opportunity for us, to me at least. I find it hard to believe I was waiting on tenterhooks for over a year for the San Luis local authority to get their act together, when Oz is clearly the place to be! ;-)

Having said that I still have faith that Argentina will come good in time. There are many neighbours in the region pushing for it to happen, not just us! ;-)

Ob.

There was some good analysis in today's podcast at:

"Crisis in Lithium Air Supply. ALB & Benchmark Price is Right!" (March 5, 2019)
https://www.libull.com/

This section, which amongst other things covered funding and takeovers, piqued my interest the most: 47:00-54:00

Ob.

Very useful article for anyone looking to update their personal valuations following Monday's news.

"Lithium stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide" (February 27, 2019)
https://smallcaps.com.au/lithium-stocks-asx-ultimate-guide/

Of the 75-80 lithium stocks they cover, the handful that are most similar to us or slightly more advanced in their stages of development have market caps in the A$5-$20m ballpark. As a result I have our A&A lithium assets down as conservatively contributing around £2-3m to my personal valuation of KDNC at this point. This could (should!) easily rise to double digit millions on good results in the coming months. ;-)

Ob.

Preemptive answer ;-)

https://www.lseg.com/markets-products-and-services/our-markets/london-stock-exchange/equities-markets/trading-services/trading-services-video-resources/what-auction

It was in the auction @Barksy. i.e. 14 million shares changed hands.

Anyone else think that now would be a good time for them to buy some shares and start a new Defined Director Purchase Programme on the back of yesterday's Australian news, assuming they aren't in possession of market sensitive information. Here we go again... ;-)

I still remember that one time I made a prediction without a caveat. Good times. Reckless, but good nonetheless. ;-)