Member Info for observer842

I don't think it changes anything @Barksy. It looks to me that it is a notice explaining the reasons behind why Bacanora Lithium (UK) needs to continue to report on sedar (Canada). You'll notice Bacanora Minerals (Canada) no longer reports.

Thanks @Barksy. This appears to be the key phrase that they must not have realised was the case until last month...

===[
As a result of the Transaction, and in particular as because of the indirect exchange by each Bacanora
Canada Shareholder of all its Bacanora Canada Shares for Bacanora UK Shares, Bacanora UK became a
reporting issuer in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan
]===

I found a more up to date summary of our new neighbours from the link I posted earlier...

"Lithium stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide" (February 27, 2019)
https://smallcaps.com.au/lithium-stocks-asx-ultimate-guide/
===[
Alliance Mineral Assets (ASX: A40)
In December, Alliance Mineral Assets formalised the 100% acquisition of Tawana Resources under a scheme of arrangement between Tawana and its shareholders.

The two companies have been joint venture partners in the Bald Hill lithium-tantalum mine in WA’s eastern goldfields.

During January, Alliance achieved record monthly production of 13,160t of lithium concentrate grading 6.15%.

The company shipped around 23,000t of concentrate in February which was expected to bring in about $26 million revenue.

A further 30,000t of lithium concentrate is expected or ready to be shipped before the end of the March quarter.

For the 2019 calendar year, Alliance is targeting lithium concentrate production of 180,000t with this expected to rise to 240,000t in 2020.

Alliance is pursuing additional offtake partners for projected increases in stage one and stage two lithium concentrate production at Bald Hill.

The company said offtake interest to date has been strong as there is “limited uncommitted, high quality, spodumene available from producers” in 2019.
]===

@1 hour 9 minutes and the run up to it.

"Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC)" (yesterday)
https://www.facebook.com/thePDAC/videos/821204668227845/
===[
Make no mistake, big oil is watching these supply chains very closely, for a couple of years now. When an oil major comes into this space, they will just go big. And that is something that eventually will happen. It's just a question of timescale.
]===

A bit old, but this confirms your cash flow estimates from our new neighbours:

"Tawana Resources begins lithium plant construction at Bald Hill" (Aug 2017)
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/182492/tawana-resources-begins-lithium-plant-construction-at-bald-hill-182492.html
===[
The Bald Hill project currently has a maiden lithium ore reserve of 4.3 million tonnes at 1.18% lithium and 208 ppm tantalum.

The pre-feasibility study for the project, being the initial “starter pit”, contemplates net cash flow before tax of $223 million and a net present value (NPV at 10% discount rate) of $150 million.

Importantly, Bald Hill is projected to achieve an internal rate of return of 185% with a payback period of only circa 12 months.
]===

There is also some information here in case you missed it:

http://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Lithium_Aus_Acquisition-KDNC-March2019.pdf

Cheers @jimb2. great video, and indeed a must watch! ;-)

"Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC)" (yesterday)
https://www.facebook.com/thePDAC/videos/821204668227845/
===[
Watch as a panel of experts discusses how close we are to the next generation of EV battery technologies, and how this evolution will impact economics of input metals.
]===

In terms of the unlisted assets. They are pretty much factored into the share price on cost (~£4-5m?). As we progress the Australian and Argentinian assets, and others progress our JV's this should change. I posted my latest valuation and reasoning yesterday evening. It's worth comparing us to our peers on the ASX:

"Lithium stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide" (February 27, 2019)
https://smallcaps.com.au/lithium-stocks-asx-ultimate-guide/

Of the 75-80 lithium stocks they cover, the handful that are most similar to us or slightly more advanced in their stages of development have market caps in the A$5-$20m ballpark. As a result I have our A&A lithium assets down as conservatively contributing around £2-3m to my personal valuation of KDNC at this point. This could (should!) easily rise to double digit millions on good results in the coming months. ;-)

You really should watch this discussion panel - some great insights. I suspect I'm going to have to watch it again in full as I keep rewinding too much ;-)

They certainly have the potential to come good for us - but for KDNC I've got more of a focus on lithium. If they get to be worth multiple millions to us, I might have to change my mind! I read their news, but don't dig much deeper.

I meant 8-12% discounting a year. Not jurisdiction discounting.

In terms of KDNC investments I know most about Greenland, Sonora, Cinovec and Yangibana. And I have a great interest to learn more about the new Australian and Argentinian assets. I'm paying little attention to MMS, AOU, CLY, NMX and LGC as they are small in comparison.

I finally found the quote you were referring to: I was reading too quickly before! ;-)

"Sonora Mexico; Compete for world lithium suppliers" (September 17, 2018)
https://themazatlanpost.com/2018/09/17/sonora-mexico-compete-for-world-lithium-suppliers/
===[
The Sonora project would place Bacanora Lithium in the major leagues. “Probably [with the new mine] we are the fourth largest producer,” says Secker.
]===

I still suspect, as do some others I've spoken to, that BCN's share price has been orchestrated downwards for various reasons - I have faith it will come good - especially after listening to:

"Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC)" (yesterday)
https://www.facebook.com/thePDAC/videos/821204668227845/
===[
Watch as a panel of experts discusses how close we are to the next generation of EV battery technologies, and how this evolution will impact economics of input metals.
]===

but it might not be for some time to come yet. But it might be tomorrow too! ;-)

Here is the BFS:

http://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-FS-Technical-Report-25-01-2018.pdf

The proven reserves are 1,666kt LCE contained in 80,146kt of ore. In the first 20 years of mining (resulting in the NPV8
pretax of $1.253B) a bit less than half (37,058kt) of that is mined.

The 300 years in itself is pretty meaningless in terms of actual 300 years time because of discounting. However what it signifies is that Sonora is huge and could be scaled up to 100's of ktpa and run for the usual 20-40 year mine life. And there is the same again in resources ready to be proved up Mexilit (JV1). And perhaps the same again in JV2 (Megalit)

This is the link. Thanks for sharing. I probably read at the time but not recently.

"Sonora Mexico; Compete for world lithium suppliers" (September 17, 2018)
https://themazatlanpost.com/2018/09/17/sonora-mexico-compete-for-world-lithium-suppliers/
===[
The mine has a lithium carbonate reserve of approximately 300 years.
]===

The proven + probable reserves stated in the BFS (which I took from March's presentation) is 4,515kt LCE. I presume the 300 years comes from assuming all of that is mined and there are no loses at a rate of 17.5ktpa:

4,515 / 17.5 = 258 years.

Latest on the loan is here:

http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2571962

In terms of the takeover attempt. I believe it was useful for us that BCN was domiciled in Canada because that enabled us to make an all share offer. I believe that is not the case on the LSE, although I forget the details so don't take my word for it! My conclusion was that is why we blocked the move as making an offer on the TSX was more favourable to us than on the LSE. Additionally we needed to protect the value of our JV's and it appeared BCN wanted to redomicile without making a provisional agreement first.

On Greenland: We are adjacent to GGG's property they are developing. If they don't make it to production it is likely worthless to us. Our area is not covered by an ice sheet so fortunately that is not an issue. I hadn't thought about others taking it off our hands. I thought GGG most likely, but perhaps not!

Of the $15m loan I believe we are down to around £2.5-3m outstanding now, with it scheduled to be paid off fully by the end of the year. I can't find the document mentioning 300 years. Were you thinking of this?

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/annual-survey-of-mining-companies-2018.pdf

In terms of pricing, my understanding is that you try to go for a win-win on price and quantity so both parties feel they have won (I know that is obvious - but it isn't obvious to everyone!). Effectively this means hedging any fixed term contracts that are required to satisfy those funding the project if either party is unwilling to take the risk of price or offtake fluctuations. This is where a lithium market on the LME would come in useful!

In terms of licences, I expect we'll be gone from Yangibana soon one way or another. Either cash or HAS shares and possibly options.

Probably the same for Sonora too. But the way I see it the longer we are able to hold out selling either, the greater the returns. This is why we need to be self sustaining, and fast! Perhaps we'll hold onto Sonora JV2?

Have you got the link to where 300 years is mentioned? I've heard 200 before. I believe the 20 years in the corporate presentation is from Sonora BCN LV plus a bit of our JV1. Whereas the additional 50 years includes most of the JV1 too if I recall correctly.

I presume the additional 100-200 years is from the JV2 areas which are yet to be proved up and could come from an estimate from extrapolating the strike lengths of that explored so far. Alternatively this estimate could be from a 17.5ktpa year plant, where the 20 + 50 = 70 year life from the LV and JV1 area is based on a 35ktpa estimate.

I'm watching that excellent video @jimb2 shared. It is indeed a must watch for investors in the lithium market!