Member Info for observer842

"EV Company News For The Month Of April 2019" (May 1, 2019 )
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4258770-ev-company-news-month-april-2019
===[
Global electric car sales were up 53% YoY in March, reaching 2.8% market share.
...
China electric car sales were ~110,000 in March 2019, up 86% on March 2018.
]===

53% > 41.5% which is required for a doubling every 2 years.

But it's China where the real growth is at. Ganfeng...

Maybe... @bbr391 said maybe... I agree, maybe. But maybe not ;-)

This EV transition (disruption!) certainly appears to be happening faster than most realise @jimb2! Did you see the tweet from Elon this morning?

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1132185343703171079
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Given how many countries are limiting or setting an end date for combustion engine cars, their future resale value cars will be low. Consumers are starting to realize this.
]===

Tony Seba realised this a few years back. EV growth sure does appear to be entering the J phase of the S curve, which is going to lead to a hole in Lithium supply if fingers aren't pulled out soon! I think we can look forward to rising prices once again after the recent rout in the coming year or two. ;-)

Quite possibly @tomcat, I'd have been more inclined to agree if the number of shares in MSB exactly equalled the number of shares in issue for BCN. Of course it's possible since the charge at the end of last year more shares have been issued in MSB.

Though I still tend to think that the word "equivalent to" in "for a cash payment of £7,563,649, equivalent to a price of 25 pence per share on the same basis as the Private Placement" rather than "at" suggests to me it's a hypothetical 25 pence per share, i.e. to me that sentence is trying to convey that the price per % sold of the subsidiary (which may or may not be MSB) and company (BCN) level is the same - not that the subsidiary has the same number of shares as the company.

In summary: in my interpretation there is no information to be gained, whereas in yours it perhaps points to MSB being the subsidiary.

We shall see! ;-)

Ob.

Are you suggesting that Mineramex is the subsidiary that Ganfeng are taking shares in at the "project level"? Sounds more likely than MSB or Sonora Lithium in hindsight.

Thanks @tomcat. I think we covered this at the time but it's interesting to note that our 30% of Mexilit and Megalit don't appear to have a charge against them. From the BCN AIM admission document there are 142,861 shares each issued for Mexilit and Megalit (Presumably series A, but this isn't mentioned), and according to Exhibit 2 you referred to 100,000 of those are pledged. This is 70%.

Similar information is on page 90 or so of the 10 Oct 2018 charge and refers to "except for the terms and conditions set out in the Shareholder Agreements for Megalit and Mexilit".

"Inspirit Energy – Technology"
https://www.inspirit-energy.com/story/the-inspirit-charger
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The Inspirit Charger has been developed over a number of years and is based upon a patented kinematic Stirling engine generator module.
]===

And for the patent see:

"Stirling engine having platelet heat exchanging elements" (2003-01-13 - filing date)
https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2003076766A1/en

It's all about the game changing use of platelet technology to allow for much greater efficiencies, amongst other benefits.

6.4kW of electricity and 15kW of heat is remarkable (assuming reasonable system efficiencies!).

It really is worth reading that patent! Here is a direct link to the pdf which includes the images:

https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/76/da/fb/9bbe7f4fdf2340/WO2003076766A1.pdf

News must be imminent IMHO.

Ob.

It's only a hunch, but perhaps the 2017 deal fell through due to the collapse of iron ore prices mid 2017 from the beginning of 2017 highs which were a little below today's?

Certainly a question I'd hope @Kiran would address if he is planning on an interview or two.

If prices collapsed before we completed, we'd presumably reconsider completing on the agreed terms?

For those that like DYOR I recommend searching the Anglo American 2011,12,13 annual reports for "Amapá".

If all goes well (there are a fair few hurdles to cross over the next few months!) and iron ore continues its strong recovery into the $100-$150 range we should be onto a winner, company defining even.

I wonder what GS&BH would have to say about Amapá?

"Gold stars and black holes" (22 January 2019)
https://www.edisongroup.com/sector-report/gold-stars-and-black-holes/

Exhibit 2 and 3 eh @tomcat? ;-)

"Stirling engine having platelet heat exchanging elements" (2003-01-13 - filing date)
https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2003076766A1/en

KDNC released news today and I highlighted some of it in quotes below in this post of mine on the KDNC board a few hours ago.

===[
"Our participation in the project has been ongoing for some 9 months, involving an extensive and comprehensive due diligence process". 9 months ago is 21 August 2018, which might explain why on 17 September 2018 we pulled out of the Zulu deal with PREM. I had always assumed it was because we didn't have the funds to proceed due to BCN tanking, but perhaps Amapá was just too attractive to miss out on? Perhaps the reality was a bit of both?
]===

I thought this timeline might prove interesting to PREM holders as it might help explain why Zulu didn't go ahead with KDNC, other than the reason most holders on both boards assumed: KDNC couldn't afford it. i.e. there is nothing wrong with Zulu, just that KDNC might have found something more attractive!

Personally I thought the proposed deal between KDNC and PREM to progress Zulu was a good one and I was disappointed to see it fall through.

Perhaps if KDNC gets a windfall in the near future and PREM hasn't got any better offers or strategy to progress alone...? I live in hope! ;-)

Ob.

This presumably explains why we were able to get apparently such good terms:

" Heads of Terms to Acquire Interest in former Anglo American Iron Ore Mine, Amapá, NE Brazil" (21 May 2019)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2790390
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In March 2013, before the acquisition was completed the port facility suffered a ground failure which interrupted production and mining subsequently ceased in March 2014. Anglo American completed the sale in November 2013[7]. During 2014, reconstruction work commenced at the port with some iron ore concentrate product being shipped during Dec 2013 and into 2014, via an interim barging solution The Amapá Project borrowed US$135 million senior debt from a banking group led by Intesa São Paulo and rebuilt 70% of the port.

Amapá filed for judicial protection in August 2015 in Brazil and mining ceased at the Amapá Project.
]===

If you correlate those dates with the price of iron ore, the falling price in 2014 and into 2015 likely precipitated judicial protection:

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=120

Some background on the incident:

"Brazil to probe Anglo American port accident" (APRIL 1, 2013)
https://www.ft.com/content/588b2c9e-9b13-11e2-97ad-00144feabdc0

Hopefully that's behind us and our due diligence proves solid, and especially so with rising iron ore prices! ;-)

Ob.

If the input for each boiler is 20kW, and the price is 2.25p per kW of gas input per hour and you run 3 of these at full rate continuously for a year then the cost of the gas would be:

£0.025 * 20kW * 3 * 365.25 * 24 = £13,149

By the way, gas has increased in price since, but so has electricity. This benefits us. I'm using the 2016 figures in the Align Report for simplicity.

But where and how are we going to raise $6m? Oh wait, we don't need to raise $6m at this point do we? It's less than half that at $2.5m. The more I read, the more I can't understand why the share price didn't explode today... ;-)

"Our participation in the project has been ongoing for some 9 months, involving an extensive and comprehensive due diligence process". 9 months ago is 21 August 2018, which might explain why on 17 September 2018 we pulled out of the Zulu deal with PREM. I had always assumed it was because we didn't have the funds to proceed due to BCN tanking, but perhaps Amapá was just too attractive to miss out on? Perhaps the reality was a bit of both?

@Brockster I can't advise what you should do. Certainly a risky proposition, but the returns could massively outweigh the risk if you have faith in JG delivering. I'd personally be buying more at these prices below 0.07p, but unfortunately (!?) I've reached my target holding. :-)

Perhaps read back through my posts the past few months/all time on here (if you are keen!) if you haven't already?

Ob.

The news seems far too good to be true on first inspection, where's the catch?

I presume the market is weary about "Cadence is in discussions with potential strategic investors to fund all or part of this investment via equity.". Presumably part could mean pretty much 0 if we are willing to try our hand at CLNs + options a second time (lucky!?)... I think I'd prefer it to raising at 100% equity at this low level, but I'm certain some would rather not go down that route with a barge pole - once bitten... Perhaps a bit of both to appease (and hedge!) the market?

Additionally we don't need to raise the full $6m all at once as "...by investing a total of US$6 million over two stages into a joint venture company..."

I certainly didn't wake up this morning thinking I'd have to brush up on all matters Iron, in fact my first thoughts when seeing the headline were a bit expletive! ;-)

Ob.

GS&BH? ;-)

You could be right @tomcat - I'm sure the arrangement will be blindingly obvious. In hindsight! ;-)