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DCE held last night's gains :-) September delivery (currently the most traded month) up 2-3%.

Indeed. Indeed. @Cause :-) Although there is a possibility, which we are unaware of if it is the case, that there is another deadline the court has set related to striking a deal with the banks: if we are unable to strike a deal by a certain date (perhaps a date that has not even been declared yet) the courts may make a ruling on the banks secured credit, perhaps demoting it to unsecured status as they threatened with the end of June deadline, which came and went when the courts could see progress was being made with the negotiations, an offer being made a few days later. I guess it will depend on how serious the courts deem their offer to have been? amongst other factors. Regardless, we should see ore shipping soon with or without a deal with the banks - I think the market will like that. :-)))

Indeed @Cause. If we capitulate some of the recent gains to the iron ore price to the the banks then they better be prepared to take on the downside should the prices fall over the next year or two. That's how negotiation works right? Win-win. Lose-lose. ;-)

Strong close to the evening session! Up 2-3% (~2 off the day's close, ~3 off the settle). This is counted as the start of the next day - let's see if it holds!

Now let's get that ore shipped and sold for September delivery! :-)))

continuing to rise in the evening session...

Wow, the spot breezed past $115/t!

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe fines
2020-08-03 116.25 125.25
2020-07-31 111.75 122.75
2020-07-30 110.95 121.95
2020-07-29 110.75 121.85
2020-07-28 107.95 118.85
2020-07-27 107.75 118.55
2020-07-24 109.35 120.15
]===

LoL @Frankie. The baseline iron ore price used in the Judicial Recovery Plan was Fe 62% $61/t and Fe 65% $80/t, and this showed that the project was able to be profitable whilst paying off its debts. The current spots are probably in the region of $115/t and $125/t respectively. If all else is equal, an increasing price doesn't impact on capital or operational expenditures so it is simple enough to see how the earnings before taxes and the like are deducted, the EBITDA. An increase of $45/t at full production capacity of 5.3Mt/yr would increase the EBITDA by:

$45/t * 5.3Mt = $240m per annum.

If we held 27% of the JV company at the time that would equate to *additional* pretax (and the like) revenue flow associated with our holding of $65m a year. If we held 49% of the JV company it would be $120m. Both heavily rounded.

The company has previously estimated that the EBITDA off Fe 62% $61/t is $136m per annum. You could add this to the $240m, but a lot of the original EBITDA is earmarked for paying off Capital Expenditure loans (including our $6m and potentially $24m back to the JV), as well as historical debt.

It's very exciting: hopefully the scoping study will include sensitivity studies up to at least today's spot prices!

Ob.

Always nice to provide a link. Found one! ;-)

"China steelmaking ingredients futures prices rise on strong demand" (AUGUST 3, 2020)
https://in.reuters.com/article/asia-ironore/china-steelmaking-ingredients-futures-prices-rise-on-strong-demand-idINL4N2F50Q5
===[
Dalian iron ore jumps more than 4%, coke hits 12-month high
...
Iron ore’s September contract on the Singapore Exchange climbed 2% to $108.08 a tonne.
]===

This likely moves the seaborne 62% spot closer to $115/t than $110/t :-)

Just noticed iron ore futures on the DCE closed 3-4% up this morning! :-)))

Good commentary @Cause. I don't know the answer to your questions. Though I too would have thought that once we've got one successful shipment under our belt we should see a ship leave port every 2-3 weeks or so laden with iron ore, and should see these on the port itinerary. As to the negotiations - I would have thought we would have countered by now and it's with the banking union once again to deliberate our updated offer. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic! ;-)

IMHO, it's worth reviewing the latest news which was published towards the end of last week. I've highlighted what I think is potentially the most interesting aspect hitherto unknown, which indicates to me news on this front could be imminent.

https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/diarios/309236109/djsp-judicial-1a-instancia-capital-30-07-2020-pg-1062
===[
Pages 17.323 / 17.324 (Union of Banks informs that on 02.07.2020 it sent a counter proposal to Recuperanda and that it will keep the Court updated on the status of the negotiations) and Fl. 17,325 (Recuperanda acknowledges receipt of the counter-proposal and will respond shortly. Emphasizes that the attempt to negotiate does not imply the resignation of its position in the previous manifestations)
]===

Indeed @smacks. It's important we commence shipping to take advantage of the relatively high iron ore prices, and disappointing that we haven't yet! What's the hold up @Kiran!? According to CME group iron ore futures greater than $80/t out to end of next year:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures.html

Seems most likely @tomcat! MIEDWIE still in port. New satellite image for yesterday. Added fleetmon care of Bannor.

===========
Satellite links:
Shows ships at port on the 1st August:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-08-01&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

High resolution, but unknown date:
https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19

Port links:
https://serveporto.com.br/macapa/
https://www.myshiptracking.com/ports/port-of-santana-in-br-brazil-id-6679
https://www.vesselfinder.com/ports/SANTANA-BRAZIL-3030
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?recognized_next_port_in|begins|SANTANA|recognized_next_port_in=2476
https://www.fleetmon.com/ports/santana_brsan_2955/
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/component/content/article/13-informacoes-operacionais/programacao-de-navios/308-ano-2020

My opinion would have been swung similarly had it not (apparently) shipped iron ore from Brazil to Argentina in May 2017. Perhaps the potential of a multiyear (potentially multi-decade?) contract with us it too tempting to refuse a change of cargo type? :-)

Food delivered, iron ore picked up?

Good spots @tomcat and @Bannor.

Thought I'd update with links to the ports, The vessel finder site also has the NAVIOS CENTAURUS expected on the 10th

===========
Satellite links:
Shows ships at port on the 27nd July:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-07-27&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

High resolution, but unknown date:
https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19

Port links:
https://serveporto.com.br/macapa/
https://www.myshiptracking.com/ports/port-of-santana-in-br-brazil-id-6679
https://www.vesselfinder.com/ports/SANTANA-BRAZIL-3030
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?recognized_next_port_in|begins|SANTANA|recognized_next_port_in=2476
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/component/content/article/13-informacoes-operacionais/programacao-de-navios/308-ano-2020

For what it's worth, here is evidence it's previously shipped iron ore (page 15)

http://www.chrysan.com.ar/uploads/files/VESSELS%20MAY%202017.pdf

My turn :-)

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?recognized_next_port_in|begins|SANTANA|recognized_next_port_in=2476

It's a bit of a puzzle! Could it be?

MIEDWIE should have sailed yesterday but is still in port.

29 July 2020 (probably)
https://serveporto.com.br/macapa/
===[
VESSEL ETA FAZ ETB ETS CARGO TYPE AGENCY PORT OPERATORS QUANTITY DESTINATION
MIEDWIE 22/07 25/07 31/07 SPC ALPHAMAR CIANPORT 28.000 GERMANY
TBN DEV 20/08 20/08 25/08 IRON ORE TBN NORTE TRADING 45.000 CHINA
TBN CIANPORT 26/08 26/08 1º/09 SOYA TBN CIANPORT 30.000 TBI
STRELITZIA 1º/09 02/09 07/09 WOODCHIPS WILSON SONS AMCEL 50.000 JAPÃO
]===

No DEV here, and different size for CIANPORT - I wonder which source is more authoritative?

29 July 2020,
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/component/content/article/13-informacoes-operacionais/programacao-de-navios/308-ano-2020
===[
Ships ETA ETS Source Destiny Owner Op. Port. Agency Charge Sit. Ton.
Strelitzia 02 / set 07 / set Amcel Amcel TBN Eucalyptus PREVISÃO 45,000
TBN CIANPORT Aug 26 01 / set Cianport Cianport TBN Soy PREVISÃO 40,000
MV Miedwie 25 / jul 31 / jul Caramuru Cianport Alphamar SPC PREVISÃO 28,000
]===

===========
Satellite links:
Shows ships at port on the 27nd July:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-07-27&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

High resolution, but unknown date:
https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19

Port links:
https://serveporto.com.br/macapa/
https://www.myshiptracking.com/
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/component/content/article/13-informacoes-operacionais/programacao-de-navios/308-ano-2020
https://www.vesselfinder.com/