Member Info for observer842

LoL @Bannor. I agree, although playing a large part in our prior history the fall in lithium prices impacting our stakes in BCN and EMH turning what was once a reasonably leveraged loan with respect to NAV into a somewhat painfully over-leveraged one, wasn't fully responsible for our problems, it did mean our subsequent pivots to South America and Australia lithium assets were also doomed to fail in the short term amplifying them. You are right that I have justified the past to myself, especially the parts around BCN. I continue to be surprised you never did as you don't strike me as someone who would sit back and take a kicking when someone tries to steal what is yours from you. This is in reference to the whole reason we took the CLN loan in the first place: to prevent BCN from re-domiciling which would have adversely hurt our JV's, and subsequently to try to take control IMHO to satisfy our Tesla play: BCN were adamant they were supplying China. We didn't do this for fun - it was a serious attempt, but we didn't have the necessary backing when it came to the crunch: and I can understand why Tesla failed to back us - they too were in a very critical period! Now? Not so much. ;-)

I really don't blame the BoD for focusing on Lithium in the short term. Heck it was us (perhaps even me!) who introduced them to Tony Seba's exponential view of the world, and like the BoD, I absolutely did not see Lithium prices sinking back to today's lows. I blame myself for not seeing the unprecedented growth in the Australian hard rock suppliers to meet the growing demand. Of course they too are in trouble now, but that's another story... Lithium will come back, and with a vengeance IMHO, unless Tesla announce they no longer require lithium in their batteries at battery day. LoL. Gulp! ;-)

Anyway, if, and I mean IF, this play comes off, and not really wanting to boast..., but one silver lining for me is that I stand to gain handsomely from the CLN "fiasco", as it has afforded me to now hold over 10x as many shares (in old money) as my long term holding, the vast majority bought between 3 and 9p, which I would have been unable to achieve otherwise. Yes if it fails I stand to lose a small fortune... :-( Nothing like a gamble with what seem like very good odds! 20's on shipping news? 40's on agreement with banks? Probability of both these things happening? You do the math! LoL.

Have a good weekend @Bannor

Ob.

I agree @tomcat, before then. I include it as it is the highest resolution image of the area I have seen, albeit not the latest.

LoL @Bannor. Let it go dude ;-) The CLN gamble didn't pay off. I didn't expect lithium prices to plummet, and neither did the Bod. I doubt you did either. Totally blew up our and BCN's plans. Anyway, ramble as you like - I do like reading your posts, but I slightly worry you inadvertently put off new people looking in.

@Ivy. Worth reading your post AGM comments again. Especially the one on 06 Oct 2019 11:46: "d]There was confirmation from BOD that existing shareholders would very likely be offered opportunity to share in any equity raise."

Here's a port watching challenge: Deduce the likely date (or range of dates to represent uncertainty) on the apple map. Please show your working ;-)

https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19

Links with commas in still don't work on here so:

https://tinyurl.com/y5cxg8u9

The two iron ore stock piles at the public port can't be missed in that image. :-))))

Pier 1 apparently now free until 27th August :-)

===========
Satellite links:
Shows ship in pier 2 on 11th August:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2020-08-11&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

High resolution, but unknown date:
https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19

Port links:
https://serveporto.com.br/macapa/
https://www.myshiptracking.com/ports/port-of-santana-in-br-brazil-id-6679
https://www.vesselfinder.com/ports/SANTANA-BRAZIL-3030
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?recognized_next_port_in|begins|SANTANA|recognized_next_port_in=2476
https://www.fleetmon.com/ports/santana_brsan_2955/
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/component/content/article/13-informacoes-operacionais/programacao-de-navios/308-ano-2020

Indeed @Barksy. We need to finish building our port, and I presume we'll be looking at the latest technologies to improve throughput: helix RCD's (rotary car dumpers) for fast and efficient unloading. It's how we get to double up our production from 5.3Mt as has previously been hinted at. Pure speculation on my behalf of course, but why wouldn't you use the latest improved technologies if you had access to them, and they weren't too cost prohibitive? :-)))

Thanks @Bannor!

@munchbox54 15:36
===[
To think they have 1.2mt ready for shipment at $120 per tonne.

Mind boggling numbers of:

More significantly, mine net revenues after shipping is forecast to be
approximately $265m per annum, with EBITDA of approx $136m per annum
based on a conservative iron ore price of $61 per tonne. Currently iron ore prices
are around $84 per tonne..... now they are $120 per t. So double the revenue and ebitda.
]===

It's mind boggling. But more so than you have presented! :-)

I've corrected below ;-)

===[
To think they have 1.39Mt ready for shipment at $120 per tonne.

Mind boggling numbers of:

More significantly, mine net revenues after shipping is forecast to be
approximately $266m per annum, with EBITDA of approx $136m per annum
based on a conservative iron ore price of $61 per tonne. Iron ore prices are
now $120 per t. So double the revenue and around 3 times the ebitda.
]===

Or it could have been a disguised buy...

Looks like someone with serious belief we were going to fall back below 10p yesterday for some more of the sell above 10p, buy below 10p merry-go-round.

12p tomorrow then? ;-)

@MLQ. Do you know if that ship has form for iron ore or trips to China? Could be local to Brazil only? @tomcat seemed to think he knew where it was destined, not Santana, presumably from his vast port watching experience. LoL.

Question is, will it, won't it fall through 11p by end of play? How exciting!

Looks like someone's got the hoover out today! LoL. Strong volume too.

CME future now above $88/t until end of next year. :-)))

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures.html

Custeel is reporting spot above $120/t :-)))

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe fines
2020-08-12 121.95 128.50
2020-08-11 119.95 127.00
2020-08-10 118.75 126.80
2020-08-07 119.15 127.65
2020-08-06 120.65 129.65
2020-08-05 117.15 125.65
2020-08-04 117.35 125.95
2020-08-03 116.25 125.25
2020-07-31 111.75 122.75
]===

@Cause - any additional requirements from connected devices will be dwarfed by that required in vehicles which will eventually also be dwarfed by stationary storage. All the mobile phones in the world add up to pretty much zilch in the grand scheme of things. The rise of the electric vehicle and stationary storage should see lithium demand grow as we (I!) once predicted several years too early on here! ;-)

My opinion for what it's worth: we overstretched ourselves on a lithium play which didn't pan out, for various reasons, not least because the lithium price has fallen substantially, and we have been paying the consequences ever since - as @Bannor likes to remind us. We are now positioning ourselves very nicely for an iron ore play. THIS MAY NOT COME OFF. But if it does we could be talking serious multi-bagging and especially so if the lithium price and demand recovers alongside it bringing our Sonora JV's more into play and hopefully increasing our EMH holdings. We may even want to fund our Rare Earth JV if we decide to hold rather than sell to fund our other plays. It was your choice to hold or buy on the lithium play which has failed to date, it's your choice now. NO ONE ELSE'S. Good luck all genuine long term holders. Hopefully we don't need it. :-)))

;-)

Looks like the sold above 10p, buy below 10p's are scrambling to get back in. LoL.