Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The FY22 dividend is currently representing a generous 10% yield. More importantly, MD Michael Carvill has said this morning in an interview that the company’s future payouts to shareholders would be unaffected by future capex, which would be easily funded from internally generated cash. This company may finally be good as an income stock to hold long term.
I hope so. I was expecting the sp to be in the 550-600p range by early April.
Can anyone explain what is going on?
I think that Freddy is quite far south of Moma. The worst cyclones usually miss Moma. The share price fall so far this week is overdone given we are going to get the best ever results announced on the 22nd March and a likely incredible dividend.
The Moma area is subjected to fierce storms around this time every year so this lightning strike is nothing to be overly concerned about. Financial losses are covered by insurance and three weeks after the storm damage production output is already back to normal levels. Let's not put a dampener on what will be Kenmare's stongest financial results ever, due to be released on 22nd March.
raxfactor, my intention was only to point out that the start of Q2 usually sees a large increase in the company's share price after it releases its annual results and FY dividend, which attracts media and investor interest. Whether or not an individual investor would sell depends on their investment strategy and the extent to which continuing to hold for the large dividend is seen as attractive. This could be a very good income stock going forward.
Share price 01.03.22 = 427p, share price 20.04.22 = 533p; Share price 01.03.23 = 488p, share price 20.04.23 = ???; The results will be the company's best ever and the future looks bright with net cash and still high product demand and selling prices. Could we see the share price pass 600p ?
Sound very promising for Kenmare :) https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/1007450/base-resources-md-talks-record-first-half-sales-revenue-progress-at-kwale-and-toliara-assets-1007450.html
I think that he means ilmenite/mineral sands is a specialist/niche product compared to copper. I only mentioned copper because certain analysts in the past have commented on the price correlation between copper and mineral sands. It doesn't always apply though, and I think the fundamentals are better for ilmenite and zircon in 2023 and 2024. The reopening of China will be good for Kenmare and world GDP.
The change in net debt/cash over the year is impressive, going from $82.8m debt to $27.5m net cash. It indicates the strong cash flow that Moma is now delivering. FY2022 will be the most profitable year ever and it looks like commodity prices will remain high this year. Some commodites have rebounded strongly since the start of the year, for example copper is currently up 12% month-on-month. It's not too late to buy more stock. Last year, the share price increased from 411p in early March 2022 to 533p in late April 2022. Quite an increase! The current share price suggests that reaching 600p by the end of April 2023 is not impossible.
Berenberg raises Kenmare Resources price target to 780 (710) pence - 'Buy'
Richtwotwo, US 49.3c would be the total 2022 dividend, as explained by Contango. 11c has already been paid as H1 dividend, so the H2 payment would be 38.3c.
The 2022 interim dividend was increased by 51%. If the 2022 final dividend is also increased by 51%, this would give us 49.3c/share, equal to about 40p/share. It's likely worth holding on and gently topping up here. A positive trading statement next week could move the share price quickly to £5.00 and beyond (2022 high = 533p).
* Trading at good value compared to peers and industry; * Earnings grew by 174.5% over the past year; * Trading at 67% below our estimate of its fair value; * Analysts' consensus is that the stock price will rise by 58.9% (From the Simply Wall St. site, 12.01.23)
Yes, indeed. The sp reached £5.33 in April 2022, and FY2022 profit and dividend will be substantially higher than last year.
25th November 2022: "A recent issue in the electricity transmission grid has created unplanned power outages . Kenmare is actively working with the state electricity provider, Electricidade de Moçambique , to identify and rectify the problem but the outages have resulted in lower production, and consequently, we are revising our ilmenite guidance."
There is the grey!
The statement does represent "a shade of grey" ???
I assume that Raxfactor was referring to the $20m spent/being spent on the RUPS project, which was supposed to overcome power supply problems. If the company is now reporting power supply problems again, then it would indeed seem to have been a waste of money, unless the project is still not completed. It is lucky for shareholders that the market has held up well, which should make 2022 the most profitable year ever in the company's history, which should also make a 10%+ dividend yield possible for this year (extrapolating from the interim dividend increase).
The market is over-reacting, as usual. While this is not good news, it will have a negligible affect on sales, shipping, revenue, or profit. The company always has plenty of buffer stock so this is really not a problem if it is sorted next month. Sales prices are still very strong and 2022 will be the most profitable year ever for teh company. FY dividend yield forecast on the current sp are in excess of 10%. I would expect the share price to be closer to £6 than £5 by the year end.
Yes, but still way down from the 533p peak seen earlier this year. Hopefully, we will end 2022 above 500p. Also, hopefully, no further share buyback. Any spare cash should be saved to pay for the Nataka move and increase the dividend.