Member Info for Obadhia

With MOU1/4/5 testing results due next spring, just about the Bed & ISA moment, can't help contemplating can I get the timing right next year for transfers without stock loss. The answer of course is highly unlikely, mind you it would help enormously to those in HL if they provided the service in 2022.

Apologies if this thought interrupts those intent upon replying to the knobs intent upon causing doubts and fears on your investments in PRD, it's just that your replies gift them more coverage, further clogs the thread and discourages fresh interest. Rely on sensible folk newly interested in PRD's potential to disregard life's insignificants and to determine prospects by making their own judgements backed up by the brilliant research done by the few on this board.

FCS just filter them, they're totally time-wasters, go with your gut feel about PRD's future and your judgement.
Nothing else matters, learn to ignore.

Winston (WLSC) also quoted as describing success as the ability to move from failure to failure without any loss of enthusiasm.

In PRD's case there has been no failure, 'just' covid which defeats, temporarily, all plans of great leaders.

Well explained in top post by Zebra yesterday 18.38.

Bdt, later comment AR Pg 5 ....

'>... but the company may still seek an acquisition of FRAM if new commercial terms were to be negotiated at any time in the future'.

Hi MEM, Massy must be absolutely key to any bid for an entry into oil production in tandem with PRD, it quite possibly is within their company expansion plans, it would make perfect sense for this partnership to prosper.

The only downside, from an impatient and elderly investor's point of view, is that it would likely delay the planned early monetisation of the T&T asset. But I could live with that for a few extra months delay!

Hi GRH, thanks.

As I recall the IT field was producing around 120bopd prior to EOR work.
Quoting from the AR 'gross contingent CO2 EOR oil resources are in the range 5.5 (Lo) to 8.9mmbo (Hi) with oil in place
89mmbo, cumulative production 23mmbo. Huge forward potential.
It's well documented that PRD's expectations are that EOR will produce between 243-521bopd by Nov although allowances must of course be made for Covid. This from a fraction of the total 86 wells that could benefit from CO2/EOR.
Does PG really want/afford to be involved with an IPSC oil field agreement? .... wouldn't like to guess?!!

Excellent post MEM.

nicidemus, FRAM is 100% owned by CEG so even though the IPSC is in FRAM's name it is still down to CEG to pay costs owing to PRD. Page 14 of the AR notes the fact that PRD reached its agreed investment of $1.5m in CO2/EOR, re-payment comes via 100% of operating profits until debt paid in full, thereafter after-tax operating profits split 50:50.

But will there be a thereafter, and I say this because the IPSC is due for renewal in 4 months time. I very much doubt CEG are that popular with Heritage, additionally there's the huge question as to the state of CEG's finances. It's not clear to me as to what has been paid to date which maybe points to a possible deal forthcoming for the Innis Trinity field.
One thing is clear, no new IPSC is granted without EOR work guaranteed.

But less than 4 hours ago....

"I'm very much in here, it is what it is, 45-50p is my guesstimate of potential final value"

Book yourself in with your doctor, or join a circus.

Morning Sefton, you may enjoy this piece, it's for all determined to hold PRD til 'the end of the line'!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMVjToYOjbM

Good find BLT, it goes hand in hand with PRD RNS 24/5....

Morocco

"PGVMB is submitting a response to AMI No.1/DC/2021 dated 26 April 2021 issued by the Department of Energy and Mines Fuel Department in Morocco: "Call for expressions of interest in the Construction and operation of a FSRU" for Morocco to import LNG. Deadline for submissions is 31 May 2021.

The initial scope of the FSRU project is for an annual requirement of 1.1 BCM by 2025 rising to 1.7 BCM in 2030 and 3 BCM in 2040. By comparison Predator LNG Ireland Ltd has a scoping annual requirement of 2.6 BCM for its FSRU design concept for the Republic of Ireland ("ROI").

PGVMB is utilising its experience and know-how that it has acquired through the development of its FSRU concept for security and diversity of energy supply for the ROI together with management's involvement with infrastructure stakeholders and regulatory authorities developed over many years in the gas sector in the ROI.

The FSRU project is envisaged to be a much longer term project that does not compete with the Company's short- and medium-term plans to explore for, appraise and develop gas in its Guercif licence onshore northern Morocco. It is potentially a complementary addition to the Company's business development strategy for Morocco to increase both materiality and the potential for future gas exports to Europe once the domestic Moroccan gas market reaches capacity. Guercif is ideally located adjacent to the Maghreb gas pipeline to support multiple development scenarios both for the domestic and international gas markets.

Discussions and negotiations continue regarding the potential for three additional Collaboration Agreements with European companies specifically in relation to the FSRU concept both in the ROI and Morocco that potentially may lead to further announcements in the coming weeks should these discussions and negotiations successfully conclude on terms acceptable to the Company."

High time we heard a tune or two from our one man band.

Don't be too hard on Nigel, Sefton.

He's having a rest, that last post of his did his bwain in :-)

As Zebra correctly says, it's the unavoidable delay in manpower-intensive workovers that is slowing progress in the field but attention has rightly turned to expanding the CO2 EOR Services business.

In early June PG announced the collaboration agreement with Lease Operators, the first Services contract, and LOL have the advantage of a juicy 10 year contract with Heritage. Bonny Lonny has now been tasked with overseeing the 'next stage', consolidation of opportunities with in-country producers showing interest in increasing output through CO2 EOR.

Fair to say we're due a comprehensive Trinidad update but we do know that injection continues in the AT-4 block, well workovers are being progressed as fast as circumstances allow and, as far as we know EOR production remains on track to produce top end 521 bopd, split 50:50 with FRAM, by this November. See Pg 19 annual report for income guidance.

All the foregoing said we’re all aware that PG marks this asset as the first to be monetised and, as has been suggested by others, ‘sacrificed’ to provide funding towards Moroccan progress. A possibility that can’t be ruled out.

For once you're understandable and correct Chesh.

A little top up before news, next week? I'll leave you to guess what.

Wouldn't it be so nice, and professional, to one day deliver a news release that doesn't leave readers with more questions than answers. A crystal clear communication requires massive improvement by PRD.
I live in hope rather than expectation.

Leon Trotsky?

No

Nicodemus?

One of PRD's more contentious but entertaining bulls who posted regularly. Anyone know?

Can MOU-1 success be counted as a 'discovery'? If so there's a discovery bonus of $1m payable.

No mention in the RNS, what's the thinking?

Mk111, wondered the same, no experience of concert parties but believe a declaration has to be made once a combined 30% holding achieved. Have we one working away in the background and if so on whose behalf?

Noting the AR comment ‘the company might still seek an acquisition of FRAM if new commercial terms were to be negotiated at any time in the future’

The Trinity Innis field consists of 86 wells (granted, not all suitable for CO2 EOR ops).
OIIP estimated at 89mmbo with cumulative production of 23mmbo to date and contingent CO2 EOR oil resources in the range of 5.3mmbo (lo) to 8.9mmbo (hi). That is a lot of oil!

Both PRD and CEG find themselves in far different circumstances since the rejected $1.75m offer a year ago.

CEG declared approx. $10m held in cash/cash equivalent end of May but the bulk of this subject to disputed claims that require resolving. Their future heavily relies on success with their Saffron field (profit on a barrel of oil double, maybe more, than that from TI) and their Suriname assets. Lots of drilling required.

PRD are now of course partnered by Massy putting in place the necessary firepower and ability to hasten field developments. Couldn’t wish for a stronger partner.

So a bid of around $2.5m, equivalent to the cost of drilling a new Saffron well would, imo, be very tempting to CEG whilst boosting PRD’s future market value of this business section come monetisation. I see it as a win for both parties. But, maybe of greater relevance, the current T.I. IPSC between Heritage and FRAM requires renewal at the end of this year. Events could prove most interesting at this point in time.

Let's not forget that PRD already have a solid partner in ONHYM, both parties must be in deep discussion as to the way forward following these latest findings.

Unless legislation forbids the state oil company from a greater than 25% interest in a foreign company's activity, Which I doubt, a compelling case (MOU4) for increased investment, say to 35%, in return for a covered drill cost may be attractive to both parties.

Retaining 65% and full operatorship, without recourse to fund raising would, imp, not be a bad outcome for PRD.
Purely thinking aloud.

I'm thinking it won't be long before Paul comes back to shareholders with a far clearer breakdown and comment on today's news together with guidance as to any changes to strategy and direction.

Should put the boat back on an even keel.