Member Info for Number1tipster

https://store.steampowered.com/search/?filter=topsellers good to see so many of FDEV's game in the top 50 in the charts.

not sure why it has been duplicated. It will be interesting to see the peak number of concurrent players on Steam over the next 3/4 days. Also, have to remember that because this is a paid DLC and cumulative sales for Elite Dangerous are >$50m on Steam, the gross margin will be higher as the platform distribution fee falls from 30% to 20%. For FY22, we have F1 2022, a major IP title unannounced, and 3 releases from Frontier Foundry label....lots of potential positive catalysts for the shares. We will get a trading update in early June...fingers crossed!

Selling well... https://store.steampowered.com/search/?filter=topsellers

2nd in the charts, expect it to reach number 1 position by this evening!

FDEV have a funny year end, which is May. This is what makes it look expensive near-term. Remember they will achieve £90-95m of revenues in Fy20/21 (ending in May 21) with basically no new game releases. In FY21/22 they will release F1 2022, an unannounced title (a major IP title- see RNS March 2019), elite dangerous odyssey contributing as back catalogue, 2-3 releases from frontier foundry, and the existing back catalogue revenues.

The valuation only looks expensive because their year-end is May. There is no way fdev will miss their revenue guidance of £90-£95m given the continued strong engagement in their back catalogue of games. Essentially, they will release Elite Dangerous Odyssey as late as they possibly can so it contributes significantly to FY21/22. Markets are forward looking and once we get past year-end FY20/21 the focus will be on revenue growth in FY21/22. Consensus currently expects EPS of 75p, which puts the shares on 32x for over 60% YoY growth. This seems extremely cheap to me, especially since I believe numbers for next year are way too low.

completely agree. I have also been buying more on the recent dip/consolidation phase. This is a company with a very clear roadmap for growing substantially over the next 3-5yrs and arguably the best CEO in the video game space. FY21/22 is going to be a very exciting yr for the FDEV with: Elite Dangerous Odyssey (contributing to back-catalogue revs), an unnamed title (multi-platform global IP), F1 2022 manager, and 2-3 games from their Foundry label.

I would tend to disagree. They have achieved £90-£95m of revenues in FY20/21 with no new releases. In FY21/22, you will have elite dangerous odyssey contributing as back catalogue but likely to be a big revenue contributor given it will be released in April/May 2021, f1 manager 2022, an unnamed title, and 2-3 releases from their third party publishing. Numbers are way too low and will likely get revised upwards when elite dangerous odyssey is a far bigger hit than expected.

Markets are fwd looking. Next yr (fy21/22) consensus is for revenues to be around £150m (+62.5% YoY at the midpoint of FY20/21 guidance range) and EPS of 75p (i.e c.43x PE). If Elite Dangerous is a bigger hit than expected, revenues could easily reach £200m and EPS will be >£1 (i.e c.30x PE for over 100% YoY revenue growth). Shares look cheap to me!

This company will achieve >£100m sales FY20/21 and sales should more than double over the coming years with upcoming releases such as F1 Manger, Warhammer game, and Elite Dangerous Odyssey (PDLC). On top of this you have a new revenue stream from third-party publishing. In terms of valuation, if you apply an EV/Sales multiple of 10-12x on 2023e numbers and discount it back, you get a target price of >£50. As a benchmark, CD projekt is trading on nearly 20x EV/Sales 2022e and so arguably 10-12x is too low.

The Steam data is incredibly strong when you look at Average players and peak players across all of their games...Elite Dangerous and Planet Zoo are the standouts. The Elite Dangerous Odyssey gameplay trailer had already had 350k views in a week and the comments have been very positive.