Member Info for Nthoftheriver

Well decided to use my Dividend and some cash to buy back in a small position this morning.

Wasn’t expecting the RNS when I reviewed things over the Christmas break, but nice to read the news this morning.

Will be interesting to hear how the handover to Sat from Mike is going and the repositioning of some of the Portfolio to accommodate more growth assets. More importantly the projected dividend income and how in the near term the “Income Reserves” are utilised.

Happy to see my holding in the green and the NAV steadily rising. (Hope that continues in 2024).

Let hope so.

I have built up a my position here so my average is now 32.4p for 100K shares, so nicely in the green. But will be happy with a steady increase over then next month or so. More positivity on Interest Rate cuts will no doubt help sentiment.

Good steady Share Price progress.

Thanks hg.

Should have said ‘Running Yield’ not Real Yield.

Hi Canetoad,

I’m not really clear with how the actual bond yield is 16%, so appreciate any clarity here.

Surely if say the original price of the bond was £100 per bond and is say now £90 then the yield goes from 4.5% to say 5%. The Capital Gain is the rise from £90 to £100 on redemption, say 11% gain.. (Pull to Par). As such the Total Return (if you bought 1 year prior to redemption in Aug 24) is 16% (5% yield plus 11% Capital Gain),

So would not the ‘real yield’ be 5% not 16%. I’m not sure how when renegotiating the terms on the £50M bond they would be automatically looking at 16%+ on a new bond. Unless they default on paying the bond. In which case the matter is a lot more of an issue.

Can’t argue that your 16% return for 1 year ain’t a bad return on a lower risk Bond though.

Also note RGL1 bond is currently trading around £92-94. With a running yield of 4.824% (HL website). Can’t say I know about bonds well enough to read a great deal into it but it was trading lower recently and seems to be recovering too. Appreciate that the current value means a pull to par opportunity of say 8% plus a portion of the 4.8% yeild for length of holding.

Granted it’s still a risk that there but I feel the situation has improved and the company has already sold some assets this year - accounting for some of the reduced income.

Hopefully we all prosper in the new year.

Hghotshot,

I also feel the current £50m will be resolved at a lower rate. I note from the Edison review back in late September they actually suggest 10%

https://d3s3shtvds09gm.cloudfront.net/19e0285251ab1cc6b58a601a6218982b.pdf

….We forecast the rebased DPS to be sustainable

The shares had appeared to have been anticipating a dividend re-base and the

post-interim share price weakness may reflect concerns regarding whether asset

sales can be achieved on terms that both sustain income as well as de-gearing.

The asset manager notes an active market for the sort of low income/occupancy,

small lot size assets it targets for sale, typically for alternative use, and our

forecasts assume £75m of sales by end-FY24. We forecast lost rental income will

be offset by lower void costs and interest as LTV is reduced to c 45%. FY24e EPRA

earnings is nonetheless a third lower than previously forecast, but fully covers the

new level of DPS of 4.8p pa. This includes an assumed refinancing of the £50m

retail eligible bond at 10% versus the existing 4.5%.

Hopefully this is a positive boost for potential rate cuts and de risking of exposure to RIETs.

Nice to see the NAV increasing. Appreciate some of it might exchange rates, but positive nun the less.

Won’t be adding to my recent top ups. (Probably overloaded for me now). Sit and wait for next Dividend and review where the market and HFEL progress is.

Nice to see the SP steadily progressing upwards. Small flurry of buys this morning.

Good to see this news. Hopefully will lead to a steady upward push in our SP.

Redistributed some cash and decide to add more. Looks like the move up might be starting 🤞

Will be interesting to see if we break your 33.5p broomtree this week.

Would be nice, but seems we still need to get through some selling pressure.

If it’s still in the low 30p zone by early Jan may use it as opportunity to top up further.

Added 10K shares @30p.

Lots of churn around 29/31 zone.

Hopefully the views on interest rates in UK are stabilising with next move being a cut. Not sure if BoE statement on holding current rates for a while is bravado or not. But see housebuilders are steadily moving up.

Ratified. 1:20 conversion tomorrow

Https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/diversified-energys-case-being-right-company-right-time-watch-207375

Agree broomtree, that another cut is likely with the rent collection plus loss of revenue from sold properties. Hoping, as you say 1p per quarter is lower than we actually need to cut.

Seems still a bit of selling into a rise above 30p, but feels more stable.

Re-bought a small position today 20K Shares. (Sold out around 38-40p range)

Any views on next financial year dividend outlook?

Have taken the view of 4p (4x1p) for the year. Mainly as a precautionary measure on my part.

Will drip feed in more as funds allow. Does feel as though this has bottomed.