Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Also note RGL1 bond is currently trading around £92-94. With a running yield of 4.824% (HL website). Can’t say I know about bonds well enough to read a great deal into it but it was trading lower recently and seems to be recovering too. Appreciate that the current value means a pull to par opportunity of say 8% plus a portion of the 4.8% yeild for length of holding.
Granted it’s still a risk that there but I feel the situation has improved and the company has already sold some assets this year - accounting for some of the reduced income.
Hopefully we all prosper in the new year.
Hghotshot,
I also feel the current £50m will be resolved at a lower rate. I note from the Edison review back in late September they actually suggest 10%
https://d3s3shtvds09gm.cloudfront.net/19e0285251ab1cc6b58a601a6218982b.pdf
….We forecast the rebased DPS to be sustainable
The shares had appeared to have been anticipating a dividend re-base and the
post-interim share price weakness may reflect concerns regarding whether asset
sales can be achieved on terms that both sustain income as well as de-gearing.
The asset manager notes an active market for the sort of low income/occupancy,
small lot size assets it targets for sale, typically for alternative use, and our
forecasts assume £75m of sales by end-FY24. We forecast lost rental income will
be offset by lower void costs and interest as LTV is reduced to c 45%. FY24e EPRA
earnings is nonetheless a third lower than previously forecast, but fully covers the
new level of DPS of 4.8p pa. This includes an assumed refinancing of the £50m
retail eligible bond at 10% versus the existing 4.5%.
Hopefully this is a positive boost for potential rate cuts and de risking of exposure to RIETs.
Nice to see the NAV increasing. Appreciate some of it might exchange rates, but positive nun the less.
Won’t be adding to my recent top ups. (Probably overloaded for me now). Sit and wait for next Dividend and review where the market and HFEL progress is.
Nice to see the SP steadily progressing upwards. Small flurry of buys this morning.
Good to see this news. Hopefully will lead to a steady upward push in our SP.
Redistributed some cash and decide to add more. Looks like the move up might be starting 🤞
Will be interesting to see if we break your 33.5p broomtree this week.
Would be nice, but seems we still need to get through some selling pressure.
If it’s still in the low 30p zone by early Jan may use it as opportunity to top up further.
Added 10K shares @30p.
Lots of churn around 29/31 zone.
Hopefully the views on interest rates in UK are stabilising with next move being a cut. Not sure if BoE statement on holding current rates for a while is bravado or not. But see housebuilders are steadily moving up.
Ratified. 1:20 conversion tomorrow
Agree broomtree, that another cut is likely with the rent collection plus loss of revenue from sold properties. Hoping, as you say 1p per quarter is lower than we actually need to cut.
Seems still a bit of selling into a rise above 30p, but feels more stable.
Re-bought a small position today 20K Shares. (Sold out around 38-40p range)
Any views on next financial year dividend outlook?
Have taken the view of 4p (4x1p) for the year. Mainly as a precautionary measure on my part.
Will drip feed in more as funds allow. Does feel as though this has bottomed.
Can’t see the trade on my platform, but wonder if that is the trade from the M&G holding RNS.
The share consolidation is due on 4th (trading on 5th) so maybe buy backs kick in then. But either way, the SP has been falling on small volumes. If institutions are playing this to rebalance, then at some point it will reverse 🤞.
Hard to see what shorting it down here achieves unless the business is going under - but then the noise would surely be much louder by institutional holders.
Good luck all holders.
Agree.
Had sold up and was waiting for the drop to consolidate. I’ve recently started to rebuild a position here. The report today would seem to acknowledge their over reliance on China and pure value plays. Hopefully the SP will see a bit of a recovery through the year. Not expecting any increase in the dividend this year beyond a token rise to maintain the illusion of increasing yearly dividends, plus keeping in the AIC records for dividend growing Investment Trusts.
Looks like it to me too Picked. But I’m also questioning myself with all the downward SP movement
Well it’s hard to fathom what the Market is thinking compared to say us here, recent analyst review and price target of £1.50 plus Malcy who is very positive.
Decided that I would add a few more (5K shares) and bring my average down a bit to sub 99p. Still means a massive 40%+ rise required from here to breakeven 🤕. Will just collect the dividends and hope the market will get the Biz model before I go broke.
Good luck all holders.
I notice that in the DEC short positions tab, that Adage increase their short on 5th October. Wonder if they’ve increased it further. Might explain part of the drift down.
Apologies last line should have followed the second paragraph.