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Addicknt, I'd be disappointed if Franco/Osisko had received anything more than a "initial assays show improved grades and widths" message re: TAM drilling for Tranche 2.

Given the impact on the project, surely the drilling results at TAM are price-sensitive info. Unless visual inspection of assays can be shared informally, and only formal assay results are considered sensitive? (I suspect not).

Obviously a good sign Franco/Osisko were keen to progress at this stage, and waive some of the original CPs.

We should be c$1.2bn at PFS, and targetting c$2bn at DFS.

And there's the problem, "volume".

We need funds / IIs back.

I'm genuinely perplexed why there has not been more institutional buying. Sure, there remains policitical risk and SOLG have limited cash (although should be enough to get Cascabel progressed to 3rd tranche?).

But are IIs still being put off by the years of poor management performance? I doubt it.

Plus there is an independent chairman now, another tickbox checked.

So what is it? Why does the market not believe SOLG can progress on their own? (Or rather, continues to value a c$6bn asset, with plenty of upside, at less than $300m?).

Thanks Pbow.

Fort - just checking your "The capex might be $1billion (up 25%+ from PFS) but the IRR likely much better due to metal prices."

The pre-production capital from Feb-24 PFS is $1.55bn.

Why do you think $1bn? (Are you deducting the $750m FNV/Osisko commitment already?).

Of course, all guesswork based on any revised mine plan. But would certainly be good to see the updated IRRs / payback periods.

The link address shows '15bn' project and I wondered if SOLG had updated the NPV!!!

(Don't know why article actually calls it a $1.5bn project - just focusing on capex rather than NPV. Dan should make sure the comms focus on key financials, hence these are the headlines in articles).

Not updated my calcs recently PS, given potential changes to mine design and inflationary pressure on initial Capex.

$6bn-7bn to reflect spot metals prices seems reasonable though.

ProfitSniffer - it is in the 16 Feb 24 RNS (Figs 1 and 2):

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/completion-of-new-cascabel-pre-feasibility-study-jducjsawqo0o8ir.html

Hi Pbow

Based on the RNS yesterday (Figs 2-4) it is shown that only 9 concessions will be retained in the South?

Presumably anything else in the South will be relinquished? (noting the ongoing discussions on exploration levy may influence this).

...noting I agree with addicknt's point the market isn't attributing much value to regionals.

Was it a Hannam note that attributes $50m for the regional portfolio, including Porvenir, as part of their valuation?

Doesn't help with Scott saying things like "Porvenir not as good as we hoped" in presentations - have no idea if Porvenir is unviable or another Tier 1. With no cash (or rather, buckets of cash being wasted by Scott and Bob) Solgold haven't been able to progress this as we would have hoped.

Fort, I expect more than $20m has been spent on Porvenir.

Capitalised regional expenditure at end-June 2020 was $41m (some of this, likely small, would be Porvenir. Let's say $5m).

Porvenir drilling and MRE was mainly Sep'20 to Feb'22.

end-March 2022 regional capitalised expenditure was $92m. Bulk of regional spend during this period likely to be Porvenir drilling and MRE (noting other drilling at Rio, Sharug, Cisne Loja).

So I estimate $5m + $35m = c$40m at Porvenir so far?

Agreed addicknt, albeit Dan has to deliver against that plan.

Keep things coming - ExploreCo plans, TAM drilling results, ratifications, financing to progress at pace, updated studies.

And avoiding any hiccups from Ecuadorian politics etc. (A tongue-in-cheek view, but part of me thinks give 10% to the state and use this to get things moving rapidly. Govt will take more of an interest than from tax revenues 10-20 years in the future).

The TAM drilling isn't progressing that fast though.

15th April RNS said up to 15 holes "expected to commence in early May 2025... The program is expected to take approximately three months with assay results available a month later."

Figure 2 in today's RNS shows only 4 holes complete, after 2 months, with another 3 holes in progress.

Appreciate a 4th rig is being added in the coming week, which will speed things up, but need to get cracking, in particular on pit 2 (where the block model showed highest potential grades).

I accept there is a lead time to get drill pads ready and rigs in place, but feels they are behind where they wanted to be.

Suspect this was a driver for Tranche 2 funds granted recently, to speed this up and fit TAM into overall Cascabel plans. i.e. Franco and Osisko want this moving.

With Tranche 2 landing and the Execution Plan delivery, as well as now having a Chairman, Dan needs to get some IIs/Funds on board.

Concrete plans for ExploreCo South in next month should help with that. As will a track record of delivering on time.

Suspect main II concern is political still - why AIPA ratification is still outstanding and the exploration levy uncertainty (noting that will mainly be for ExploreCo South and less impact on Cascabel and any retained nortern concessions).

Pbow / addicknt - agree on two ommissions from the RNS:

Exploration levy - this issue is bordering 'material news' imho and I would have expected at least an update on proposals and SOLG's current view / discussions.

Power - would have hoped for more detail on how power is going to be supplied, the timescales and any additional costs to SOLG. What is the progress on the power MoU?

I agree with general views this is a decent update; even includes a project timeline plan!

Thanks for the article Pbow. Agree, power plant progress is a key milestone:

Translated:

"The Deputy Minister of Mines assured that all new mines in Ecuador will have to have their own generation plants.

In fact, on June 15, 2025, by an executive decree, President Daniel Noboa ordered that all high-voltage industries (such as mining) must have their own generation plants"

and...

"Daniel Noboa's government has already warned on several occasions that in order for the new mines to have the authorizations to start exploiting the material, they will have to have their own power generation plants"

RodneyT - don't worry about redknight. He's just having another of his regular 'arrogant old man' days.

Which would be more tolerable if he hadn't been so consistently wrong with his ever-changing views over the years.

His comments only ever reflect one thing - his trading.

Stas20 - re: "placing around the corner", the issue is that Franco funds only cover Cascabel.

What about the regional licences and intended progress (Porvenir, Blanca). And the new exploration tax?

As Pbow highlights, the ExploreCo plan is likely to involve some dilution / capital raise. Unless there is a full sale of Porvenir / some ingenious plan that previous management haven't been able to deliver over recent years.

Rich3r - you were made to feel like a king at AGM voting? I didn't even get that the last few AGMs!

Jiangxi would need to offer much more than 12p (highest SP over last 12 months) to get anywhere near the 50% acceptance required.

No chance that lowball would be successful. And why trigger a bidding contest if Jiangxi want it themselves or on the cheap?

One reason for a short would be to supress the SP and make it difficult for SOLG to raise finance and progress (especially regionals) themselves. Choke SOLG and pick up on the cheap. SOLG coping so far, but need money for regionals (at least) in the near future.