Member Info for NotMuchMoney

More mad ramblings Jack.

The short still appears to be open.

Have you checked Morningstar or Bloomberg or similar to see what Funds/IIs have been buying/selling since last month?

The recent weeks of 10m-30m volume has not been PIs. Or due to lending max 18m of stock.

Jack - how material do you think the ExploreCo news will be?

The market doesn't value the regionals that highly at present. Solgold don't have cash to explore/develop themselves.

For ExploreCo South, I can see £50m being raised with shareholders retaining 50%, or £100m raised with shareholders retaining 25%?

Not incredible, reflecting the uncertainty about exploration fees, but has two main advantages:

i) allows management to focus on Cascabel, with a cleaner organisational structure to sell the northern assets

(even then I doubt they'd want to sell Rio and others as part of a Cascabel sale)

ii) cash and expertise to drill southern targets and progress Porvenir studies

I'd be content with 25%-50% of some southern discoveries/monetisation of Porvenir, rather than 100% of not much at present.

Great work Paul, that's how to continue to apply pressure to the short / remind the market of the potential here.

ScotKio - your loss if you want to filter people who do the research and know Solgold inside-out.

I've looked at your posts - a hanger-on who doesn't add much. Using everyone else for the info.

Bye

Quady - of course, when it is below a reportable threshold there is no need to continue reporting it!

If you have a more accurate source, outside of Bloomberg terminal, then great. But I don't believe - based on the evidence available - Fintel is it.

I gave a quick example of where Fintel didn't look right - for FirstGroup.

I'm not interested in climate change, EVs, John Clauser - I was trying to get to the bottom of the short data using example data and reliable sources.

I'm happy to agree to disagree - many other things I need to be getting on with.

I don't follow Quady - the FCA data will show when the short has been closed or reduced below the reportable threshold.

This obviously assumes timely reporting by whoever has the short.

All seems sensible - a daily list to show current levels of (reportable) shorts.

Whereas Fintel? As I've proved for FirstGroup, doesn't look reliable.

Quady - the official FCA data (which I assume is the input into this site too) uses the date of a reported change. I.e. opened or modified.

When the short is reported as closed (or reported as below the reportable threshold) it will cease being in the daily FCA short list.

All relatively simple.

Buffett - that is a lot of Ifs and Potentiallys from "some sources"!

I repeat, Mining & Exploration is Risk vs. Reward. The upside If/Potentially completely dwarf the downside If/Potentially.

If you want an investment where AI can't find a single risk or unknown, stick your cash in a bank account. Or under your mattress.

Just hope the bank doesn't go insolvent, or you get burgled, or the return on cash fails to keep up with inflation.

The bank may be best for you as you seem a bit of a worrier. But it may mean having to leave your house.

Quady - and have you been seeing the 18m reducing?

I did a spot check on another stock - FirstGroup PLC.

Both FCA official site and LSE show 1.61% of shorts (both recent) open. Which would be c9m shares.

Fintel site shows no short interest, and 3.4m of short shares available. i.e. completely different

https://fintel.io/s/gb/fgp

I don't have the time to check other mainstream stocks, but I suspect Fintel data is completely unreliable?

Buffett - Cascabel isn't priced based on US copper futures. LME is a much more appropriate indicator.

LME Copper is up about 10% since April. And relatively flat - around US$9.5/tonne, over the last 12 months. Which is far higher than used in PFS.

You seem to struggle to rationalise your own thoughts, and need to use AI to generate misleading points? Quite sad really, my sympathies.

Addicknt/Stas20 - thanks for the short info; I also checked official FCA short position this morning. Still showing 0.6%.

Of course Actusray could be late in reporting a reduction to below threshold / short fully closed.

Quady - I don't use FIntel but what did you see when the short was just opened? 16m? And has this been reducing to 10m over the last week?

Buffett - this is Mining and Exploration.

For Cascabel, the risk is reducing, and potentially massive rewards (based on increasing metals prices and size of resource).

As I've said before:

- Ecuador needs income; responsible mining is now being encouraged

- local communities appear supportive

- electrification, and a developing world, needs this supply of copper

Quite sad to see your poor attempts at scaremongering easily batted back by the knowledgeable LTHs here.

I think you mean 2020 dates Fort... and I'm not sure a Covid recovery is the best example.

Hi addicknt

I thought you may disagree when I wrote that post! But it probably reflects how I've poorly articulated my point around the challenge of changing the market's perception of SOLG management.

I'm not trying to 'stamp on green shoots' or 'moaning / sniping' as others have commented. But equally SOLG could be in a better position.

Dan has been the CEO for almost 5 months (and he wasn't new to the company, he would have been very familiar with most items from the ongoing Strategic Review, given he led this).

The TAM drilling and ExploreCo timeframes are those that he set following his appointment. Hence I'd expect him to deliver, if not overdeliver, on these.

Comms up to the last 10 days have been extremely light. As everyone was moaning about up until recently.

All I'm saying is positive signs recently, but more to do?

Apologies if it came across more negative than that - frustration at the ongoing disconnect between current and 'fair' value.

Appreciate there has been a lot of love for Dan given updates over last week.

But let's not kid ourselves. The SP isn't even back to 10p (yet).

Dan could/should be doing more.

- the drilling at TAM is behind plan. Upping the pace, but still behind where we should (and could) be

- the ExploreCo is still a work in progress, despite a 'definitive plan' being due by end-June. (Appreciate the exploration fee change may have moved the goalposts)

- Dan still hasn't updated on the implications of the exploration fee for Solgold. There may be reasons for that, including that this is a dynamic situation, but impact and options would be useful

- there had been talk of a retail Investor call/meet over last month or two. Why has nothing been arranged? Clearly progress at Cascabel and with ExploreCo would take priority, but nothing happening on this front.

As Pbow says, a case of managing expectations and then over-delivering. Instead of almost relief when there is some news (which in today's case is more drillbit success rather than outperforming).

As Rick Rule and others observe, the concern isn't with the asset but with the historic management performance. I still think Dan and Co can do more to help.

In terms of Buffett, who I imagine is part of the Rainforest Action Group or has an interest in a short, I would simply direct them to the PFS.

This is produced by experts, with appropriate qualifications.

There are pages and pages covering the risks. Earthquakes are covered, with project facilities, including tailings, designed to appropriate parameters.

The seismic assessment was performed by Knight Piesold. Section 18 of the PFS, if anyone wants some bedtime reading.

The simple facts are:

- facilities will be designed and operated to international standards

- Ecuador needs income; responsible mining is now being encouraged

- local community appear supportive

- electrification, and a developing world, needs this supply of copper

Pbow - agree with "The negative from the RNS is they are again behind target - also it defies logic that this drilling wasnt done years ago."

Yes; would have expected, from mid-April RNS, both Pit 1 and Pit 2 assay results by mid/end August. Pit 2 looks like it could be later.

Anyhow, seem to be making rapid and focused progress now.

In terms of doing this drilling years ago, I simply cannot fathom why they hadn't. PFS Addendum and potential open-pit at TAM was being talked about in 2022. Potentially the Board thought Alpala cave PFS would be attractive to majors on its own. Feedback has suggested de-risking required. But for such a small outlay and little time, should have drilled TAM more robustly years ago.

Things looking positive for Q3 and Q4.

How can the short still be 100m shares...

... when the original 0.6% short was 18m shares?

Let's enjoy the deserved re-rate, without the ramps.

Please don't make threats on the board SH, you may find yourself reported and suspended...

"Official LSE volume 13,249,132 definitely 4th highest volume in a year"

redknight - I can see at least 5 other days in the last 12 months where volumes were higher.

Where do you get your definitive facts from?