RE: say what you see27 Sep 2022 11:16
Have to agree with all the comments ... one thing for certain is that housebuilders, along with retail stocks are pricing in doomsday scenarios. I think its certain that the UK is in recession at present and interest rates are certain to hike up to levels that no-one really knows where. Allied to very weak sterling against the US dollar, UK plc is becoming very cheap to any overseas investors wanting to snap up quality companies. The housing market and housebuilders are likely to suffer, but if investing for the typical 5 year hold period, companies like TW, Persimmon, Berkeley etc are looking pretty cheap, although still some way to fall I think. Trouble is how is the market pricing housebuilders and what is the general assumption of interest rates being used in their calculations. I've heard anything up to 5.5% to 6% being banded about. Also, how long before we see either some further consolidation in the UK housebuilding sector or companies being taken out by overseas investors?