RE: IC30 Jun 2025 16:28
PART 2
Unlocking value across the business
Chariot’s involvement in Etana also unlocks its direct equity participation in several significant wind and solar projects in South Africa and provides a second material revenue stream for the group. In particular, Chariot is working alongside a major European independent power producer on three wind projects totalling 315MW directly linked to the offtake customers as part of Etana’s wheeling capacity. Progress is ongoing on the development of a 40MW solar project at Tharisa’s PGM mine in South Africa, too.
Financial close on these generation projects is expected in the coming months. Chariot’s equity stake is expected to be financed at the subsidiary level, with investment partners committing up to $30mn. Chariot’s share of net cash profit from the initial projects is forecast to be in the region of $9mn, and participation in future generation projects offers wide-ranging growth potential.
The group’s renewable power business offers lower risk and more predictable returns than those of high-impact oil and gas, so it makes sense to spin off the business so that its value can be properly recognised by investors.
The upstream portfolio encompasses three distinct projects in Morocco: the Anchois offshore gas development, offshore oil and gas exploration across the wider Lixus and Rissana licences, which have drill ready prospects, and onshore gas appraisal in the group’s Loukos licence, a low-cost and high-value commercial opportunity. Chariot needs to attract partners to help fund and deliver further work programmes and has received interest from parties who are potentially interested. Chariot’s pre-tax loss widened from $15.6mn to $22.3mn in 2024 mainly due to non-cash impairment charges on its exploration assets and inventory.
Analysts at house broker Cavendish value the shares at 5.9p, or four times the current share price, on a sum-of-the-parts basis. A successful demerger of the renewables business and securing partners on upstream oil and gas activities will be key to narrowing the gap and reversing the share price decline since I rated the shares a speculative buy, at 1.93p (‘This Africa-focused energy stock has recovery potential’, 4 December 2024).
However, if the demerger is not concluded, the directors anticipate a cash deficit from the second quarter of 2026, albeit they are confident of securing alternative financing options at the subsidiary level to fund ongoing project work and overheads. Hold.