Member Info for nordell

That is what people think but often the move starts earlier, had so many people saying fundamentals and news are drivers but it is not so simple - many times it is a sell the news event, or news moves a bit but the market sells off- use whatever works for you - this is just one opinion- and I am not saying it IS def the bottom...no one knows that

Not been pretty these past weeks but we have been in a 5 impulse wave up - as per chart and the 3 wave down (ABC) which typically follows - and here we are at the 1"1 extension -at 11.3 (blue dashes) also bullish divergence on the RSI

I think this is bottom

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lYMbV3x4/

Well the "deal: explains whey they didnt buy previously

Another 2 years is asking a lot - a lot of indications we made that the mkt would be happy with the deal - it is not , and many here feel let down and misled

He is getting on in years - hope he is ok

I wonder what ROB would say about all of this??

Beyond poor performance - why is so little being tested?

Jersey’s share price shot up 18 per cent to 233p on news of the Serica farm-out, but this only places a valuation of $95mn (£76mn) on the company’s equity, representing discounts of 62 per cent (Zeus) and 69 per cent (Cavendish) to analysts risked NAV estimates. Moreover, net cash should back up 31 per cent of Jersey’s market capitalisation by the end of 2024, making the company an obvious takeover candidate unless the shares re-rate, given the value held in the 20 per cent fully carried interest in Buchan.

pt 2

So, having suggested buying the shares, at 205p, in my 2019 Bargain Shares portfolio, and last reiterated that advice around the 200p level (‘A potential multi-bagger North Sea oil play’, 15 September 2023), I anticipate a material narrowing of the unwarranted share price discount to risked NAV as more investors cotton onto the value opportunity on offer. Buy.

North Sea-focused upstream oil and gas company Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG:233p) has announced a second farm-out of its Greater Buchan Area (GBA) project. It’s a cracking deal for shareholders.

Having handed over operatorship in the project to its new partner, NEO Energy, in April this year, Jersey has agreed terms with Serica Energy (SQZ) to divest a further 30 per cent working interest. Serica is a cash rich UK-listed exploration and production company that generated free cash flow of £107mn in the first half of 2023, and one that holds 130mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of 2P reserves. The transaction is on identical pro-rata terms to the 50 per cent farm-out to NEO and means that Jersey retains a 20 per cent fully carried interest in the redevelopment project to first oil.

Based on forthcoming farm-out cash payments from both NEO and Serica, analyst Daniel Slater at brokerage Zeus Capital estimates Jersey’s forecast closing net cash of £9.3mn this year will increase to £23.8mn (73p) at the end of 2024. The estimate factors in a $20mn (49p) cash milestone payment on approval of the field development plan, which is scheduled for next year. In addition, Jersey fully carried on its 20 per cent share of Buchan’s pre-development costs ($25mn) and its projected capital expenditure ($850-900mn) is expected to bring more than 70mn boe into production (95 per cent oil). First production is scheduled for late 2026 and the Buchan field is forecast to deliver 35,000 barrels of oil per day at peak production.Re-rating beckons

It’s a game-changing deal for the small-cap company. That’s because it not only hugely de-risks the investment case, but it unlocks the route to monetising GBA’s total resources of 100mn boe.

To put the estimated value of the farm-out transactions into perspective, Slater’s risked NAV of $235mn (533p) includes a $207mn (469p) valuation for the 20 per cent fully carried interest in the Buchan field, rising to $272mn (616p) once the company’s 20 per cent interest in both the nearby J2 Sgieth and Verbier prospects are factored in. The estimates are based on a long-term Brent Crude oil price of $65 a barrel (a discount to the one-month forward price of $81) and a long-term sterling dollar exchange rate of £1:$1.30 (above the current spot rate of £1:$1.25). At current exchange rates, Slater’s total risked NAV per share is 640p. Analyst Jonathan Wright at broking house Cavendish is even more bullish, placing a risked NAV-based target price of 755p on the shares.

Jersey’s share price shot up 18 per cent to 233p on news of the Serica farm-out, but this only places a valuation of $95mn (£76mn) on the company’s equity, representing discounts of 62 per cent (Zeus) and 69 per cent (Cavendish) to analysts risked NAV estimates. Moreover, net cash should back up 31 per cent of Jersey’s market capitalisation by the end of 2024, making the company an obvious takeover candidate unless the shares re-rate, given

Will the buyer have read Reddit?

I said in the telegram channel a week or 2 ago that we should hit 16 as bottom - nothing to worry about

Have longed held that we are still in our wave 4 with a 5 target of 48 as the 1.618 extension - see earlier posts

Hi Marineclerk - whats your target for this after we hit the prior high?

Looking bullish- holding the weekly major moving averages - we've had our 5 waves up and our 3 wave consolidation- maybe a pull back to 14 or so then higher - targets technically 29 seems feasible

SDX dont seem to have announced any finds - still testing aren't they?

Nope

"I can’t even be bothered to provide any form of analysis of what’s going on. "

just how will we cope?

I posted the 1:1 extension - either here tor telegram - a good place to take some profit at least - but of course shouted down but the "what does this even mean"and "this is going to the moon brigade " - lol

Thanks Jimmy - a bit of sanity on the board at last instead of the relentless hyping up which has reulted in many poor fools buying the top and nonbeing told don't worry it will be ok - FFS maybe it will be people need to be more measured in their enthusiasm and hopefully the "I trust the BOD without question" mob will take that onboard

Are you basing your investment decisions on Steve McClaren's advice - best of luck to you