Member Info for NoQuestionMarks

JODO,
PMG always goes back to the thirties.
I have been trading the 35-60p range for years whilst keeping a few shares just in case GPA finally gets the nod.

I'm following the mantra to buy at 35p to 40p and sell as soon as it breaks down above 50p.
Consequently, I have sold most of mine. I still hold a small % of my portfolio for any big news (one can dream(
I suspect we will drift back down from here without it.

I'm sure Putin would like to squeeze supplies further, even though it would further damage the russian economy by bringing on more sanctions.
We can only hope that some of his cronies see sense and 'remove' him from the stage.
I hope that the EU are speaking to the dutch about allowing production from the Groningen field to be seriously ramped up.
The field is producing practically zero gas after the dutch decided to cease production following a number of minor earthquakes.
There is estimated to be at least 450 billion cubic metres of gas still in the ground, around a years supply for the whole of the EU and UK.
Could be a lifeline for europe... and good for NAM (Shell and ExxonMobil)
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/091621-netherlands-rules-out-change-to-groningen-gas-field-policy-despite-high-prices

steven49,
I agree with you.
Oil and gas prices have obviously played a part too.
However, I suspect a large part of the rise is get rich quick investors reading the article (I could read it without a subscription so I guess anybody can) and assuming the only way is up.
PMG have been a great trading share. Buy at 35p, sell at >50p
I prefer to make lots of smaller profits than sit around for years waiting to win the lottery.
I always keep a few just in case PMG finally does reach for the stars.

The reason for the rise (in my opinion) is due to Simon Thompson's article in the chronicle.
In the same piece he tipped up JOG, they have since risen from 140p to 175p.
I never thought the chronicle had such an impact but this is the third sharp rise after a piece written by him.

Thanks for your hard work robs12, the link worked perfectly well.
Declining production at a time of record prices....

When what we could have been talking about was "Platypus first gas Q1 2022 with an operational life of 20 years"

I am going to hold.
With an average of 630p I have a cushion with which to get out if things turn sour.
With Russia being annexed from the global markets with all the turbulence that will bring, FRES are my hedge.
I see a bright future for FRES once we get the next 3-6 months out of the way.

You are right on the economic effective date of the transaction, it was the 1st Jan 2021.
The $140m cash flow from operations (our net 50% share) was the average figure for 2017-2019 where oil was around $50 -$70.
However production in 2017-2019 was quite a bit higher, in excess of 40,000boepd net to us.
On acquisition the production net to us was more like 35,000boepd due to a lack of drilling as the assets were held for sale.
Our 50% share of the assets will cost us a maximum purchase price of $463m, So a $140m CFFO number would be very good indeed.
An explanation of the production sharing contract for our licences is detailed in an analyst presentation that is on our website.
We can claim back the monies spent to recover the oil/gas, it varies from 25% to 40% depending on the licence, this is known as cost oil/gas.
The percentage remaining is known as profit oil/gas. Again, our share of the profit oil/gas revenue varies depending on the licence.
good luck
Here's the link to the presentation
https://www.capricornenergy.com/media/2943/cairn-energy-egypt-proposed-acquisition-analyst-presentation-i-final.pdf

We received the tax refund before India decided to abstain from condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I hope Putin is removed from office very soon (preferably in a body bag)
#StandWithUkraine

Silver...
I bought fresnillio at 630 a few weeks back.
700p+ now but still very cheap.
Silver is the best conductor of heat and electricity of all metals.. trading now at over $25 an ounce
It will go much higher over the coming decade imo
Solar, electric vehicles... join the dots

Capricorn, (Cairn as was) have now received the $1.06 billion tax refund from the government of India
"Capricorn is pleased to confirm that the expected Indian tax refund of INR79 billion has now been paid and net proceeds of US$1.06 billion have been received.
A circular is expected to be issued in early March detailing the shareholder resolutions required in connection with the proposed shareholder return of up to US$700 million, comprising a US$500 million tender offer and US$200 million ongoing share repurchase programme"

 

There you go,, it was always going to happen.
£3 will be seen this year imo

CAPRICORN ENERGY PLC ("Capricorn" or "the Company") 

 India Update - Tax refund of US$1.06 billion
Capricorn is pleased to confirm that the expected Indian tax refund of INR79 billion has now been paid and net proceeds of US$1.06 billion have been received.
A circular is expected to be issued in early March detailing the shareholder resolutions required in connection with the proposed shareholder return of up to US$700 million, comprising a US$500 million tender offer and US$200 million ongoing share repurchase programme.

If only Dana had not bailed out on Platypus....
If they had followed their initial programme first gas would have started in Q4 of 2021...
How silly are the they?
I still think we should have gone out on a limb to continue the development with CalEnergy, or on our own if they were not interested.
I suspect potential partners would be falling over themselves to join us now.
The Southern North Sea is back on the menu.

Thanks for the heads up SOTB,
Let us hope there is plenty of ullage left for GPA.
I actually prefer PDF (Perth, Dolphin, Fynn)
https://www.offshore-mag.com/subsea/article/14234144/studies-under-way-for-north-sea-marigoldpiper-b-tieback

oilriches,
Shell and Capricorn did equity swaps on Jaws and Diadem last year.
So, let's say Pensacola and Plymouth are successful.
I could see Shell and Capricorn taking a 50/50 share of each field.
After we have been handsomely rewarded of course

I noticed that too robs12.
TC has over 3 million SARs at 41p, 2.9 million at 35p and 3.9 million at 27p.
RS has his 700,000 at 27p.
They pay nothing up front and receive the difference between the exercise price and the price when exercised as cash from the company..... or more precisely it's shareholders.
Hopefully it drives RS and TC to power us forward.
If we ever get near that in house broker target of around 150p RS will be looking at £889,000 pre tax.
Tom.... rough guess... £11 million.
If we see 150p I'll gladly give it to them!

True,
I have shares in Deltic, Capricorn and Shell. We seem to be forming symbiotic circle in the SNS
As well as the $1.06bn tax refund Capricorn are producing almost 40,000 boepd from the Egyptian assets they bought from Shell last year. They expect production to exceed 43,000 boepd by the end of 2022.
They are still earning money from the stakes they sold in Kraken and Catcher last year, the earn out consideration this year is expected to be around $76m. Payments continue until 2025 based on production volumes and oil prices.
Capricorn have oodles of cash but operate a fiscally 'tight ship'
If the gas is there in commercial volumes they will not hang around.
However, I expect Deltic will have to farm down further equity in the licences to fund us through to first gas. I would prefer this to taking on more debt.
If we end up with 10-15% in a producing gas field we will be quids in.

Hi robs12
With regards to Ryan Stroulgers £250k investment at £1.56.
I think Ryan Stroulger was handed a get out of jail free card this year.
Page 58 of the annual report shows that he was issued with 2 batches of 350,000 stock appreciation rights. The SARs can be exercised at anytime between December 2023 and December 2030.
The exercise price is just 27p.
So, if the share price hits, lets say for example 80p during that 7 year period, he can exercise those rights at that time and pocket the difference in cash.
80p - 27p = 53p
53p x 700,000 = £371,000
The £371k will be subject to tax of course. However, he is not going to be too badly out of pocket.

Not long now.
What to expect?
We will see what 3 months of revenue from the new Egyptian assets looks like, 36,000 boepd on aquisition and expected to rise to in excess of 43,000 boepd by the end of 2022. We might get an update on how the work to accelerate cash flows whilst reducing emissions is taking shape.
Maybe a refined estimate of the earn our consideration due in Q2 from the Kraken and Catcher disposal (~$76m)
The Jaws exploration well in the north sea should be near to completion, maybe an update on this.
AND... If not already in the bank, an update on the tax refund of ~$1,006,000,000

We have lots to smile about, in my opinion. Look beyond the tax refund, look at what we are doing on the ground, our cash generation, the assets we hold.... and all for a market cap of ~£1bn.
Relax.
Simon Thomson, Chief Executive, Capricorn Energy PLC said:
"We are very encouraged by the initial operating performance of our newly acquired Western Desert Assets in Egypt, with production growth ahead of expectations. We look forward to accelerating cash flows from the assets whilst reducing their emissions profile.
We are actively pursuing opportunities to grow our producing asset base within our strict capital allocation criteria.
With balance sheet strength and financial flexibility, Capricorn enters 2022 positioned to make another significant capital return to shareholders with the company having concluded all required steps to enable payment of the India tax refund."

1p, 2p, 3p how high will we go?
5p = £70m mkt cap, I think we will see that once news starts to flow.
Success and 10p is easily achievable this year imo