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Reuters say Shell are in talks with an indian consortium to sell their LNG assets in russia.
Reuters are also running a story explaining Russian plans to take control of interests held by overseas companies who have left Russia.
Come on Shell do a deal before bad Vlad grabs our swag.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-shell-talks-with-indian-consortium-sell-russian-lng-plant-stake-2022-05-26/

Another nail in the coffin.
From the FT
"Britain's finance minister Rishi Sunak has ordered officials to draw up plans for a possible windfall tax on more than 10 billion pounds ($12.58 billion) of excess profits by electricity generators, including wind farm operators, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
Treasury officials are working on a scheme that would go well beyond Labour's original windfall tax plan, the report said."

There were a couple of statisitcs that grabbed my attention yesterday.
1. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their seventh straight week of losses, their longest losing streak since the end of the dotcom bubble in 2001.
2. The Dow (.DJI) suffered its eighth consecutive weekly decline, its longest since 1932 during the Great Depression.
The optimist in me thinks that the US markets are oversold, the pessimist in me thinks that this was because they were overbought in the first place.
Either way, two pretty staggering stats IMO

Manicminer22,
Thanks for reminding me of the depletion charge, I had completely overlooked it.
I'm not sure what to do with it either.
For now I'll assume it is going to recur at the current rate and work on that basis.
I guess that how big a recurring issue it is will ultimately depend in the short term on how successful we are with near term development to turn 2C resources into 2P reserves.
We are spending ~$30m on exploration in Egypt this year which will go some way to deciding whether we have a long term future in Egypt or merely 'mop up' the reserves and resources we acquired from Shell.
I'm beginning to think this year in Egypt will be relatively neutral, maybe even a small loss.
However, if the production can be ramped up whilst driving down costs, resources converted to reserves as planned, and exploration is moderately successful we will then see a re-rating of the company IMHO

Onwards and upwards yet again.
No mention of TP group though.
"The Group has had a good start to the year, with performance through April slightly ahead of the Board's expectations. It is therefore anticipated that the Group will report adjusted operating profit ("AOP") for the first half of 2022 around 20% higher than in the same period of the prior year. The Board is closely monitoring the impact of materials, energy and wage inflation but is benefitting from a broadly offsetting effect due to the strengthening of the US Dollar relative to Sterling.
Gross cash at 30 April 2022 was £38.4 million with net funds of £23.4 million. The Group's strong balance sheet, enhanced by the undrawn facility of £25 million arranged in December 2021, enables the Board to continue to evaluate corporate opportunities to increase the scale and/or development of the Group"

Using Q4 2021 as a yardstick I am estimating that Egypt will bring in >$50m pre tax profit annually.
Please feel free to shoot me down.
In Q4 2021
Production averaged 36,500boepd with a realised average oil price of US$77.80 and US$2.90 per MCF for gas.
OPEX US$22m
CAPEX US$20m
Revenue US$56m
So, we made around $14m in the quarter, correct?

In 2022 CAPEX is forecast to be around US$100m and OPEX say US$75, pretty much in line with Q4 2021
However, Liquids are being prioritised and Oil prices are much higher.
So, is my baseline of US$50m pre tax profit from Egypt alone a reasonable starter for then?
Thoughts please.

"50s long gone NQM will tell you that !"
As I have said before, I will only get back on this ship at under 40p, preferably under 35p. I then sell on every spike over 50p.
PMG going nowhere without significant news.
Macro environment will take PMG down again this summer IMO.

Sorry, should have read
*How much cash they have was NOT stated*

Tim Doig said they were in a net cash position at the webinar at the end of April.
He said they had dipped into the revolving credit facility to fund investments whilst waiting for the £12m to come through for seedrs .
How much cash they have was stated however.
It can't be much, less than £9m would be my guess.
The NAV is being dragged down by Oxford Nanopore.
IPO at 425p
Rose to over 700p.
And now trading at 260p
Roger said that Schroders believe that there was some upside still on the table at the IPO price and that the company have exceeded their expectations pre IPO.
If you trust Schroders judgement the only way is up!

Tim Creed said buybacks would be considered if the share price got totally out of whack with the NAV.
It would seem that the 'out of whack' threshold has been reached, armed with a renewed authority they are free to purchase as and when they choose for the next 12 months.
Hopefully this is the floor under the SP we have all been praying for.
"Schroder UK Public Private Trust plc (the "Company") announces that on Monday 9 May 2022 it purchased 50,000 of its ordinary shares at a price of 23.2 pence per share, to be cancelled.
Following this purchase, the Company's issued share capital consists of 908,589,238 ordinary shares of 1p each. The total number of voting rights in the Company is 908,589,238.
The above figure may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the Company under the Financial Conduct Authority's Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

Enquiries:

Schroder Investment Management Limited

Tel: 020 7658 6000"

Banburyboy,
It seems complicated to me too, so many moving parts make it really hard for me to get an idea of how profitable the agreement can be.
We simply have to trust that Capricorn and Cheiron will tailor their production to maximise their returns.
For example, They are prioritising liquids this year to take advantage of the high oil price environment.
As long as they supply enough gas to keep Egypt happy, it seems an obvious move.

Thank-you londoner7,
Just what I was looking for.

Banburyboy,
Forgot to mention that the question I was asking about Egyptian earn outs is in relation to an agreement we made with Shell at the time of the acquisition.
Just like our North sea agreement with Waldorf, we have to pay monies to Shell if the oil price exceeds a certain $ price per barrel.
I cannot find what the threshold price per barrel is.
What percentage of that excess revenue do we pay to Shell and for how long.
Any help with these questions by anybody would be most appreciated.
NQM

Banburyboy,
You have to remember we are in a production sharing agreement with the Egyptian government, a so called PSA
The 37-43k boepd production is the working interest production (i.e. 50% of the total production in our 50% interest licences and 27% and 20% in the others))
PSA's operate on a cost oil and profit oil basis. Capricorn and Cheiron can claim back any monies spent in order to get the oil/gas out of the ground. To do this they claim a share of the cost oil.
What revenue is left after this is the 'profit oil' Capricorn and Cheiron take a share of this too.
The lions share goes to the Egyptian government.
Capricorn are estimating their entitlement production per day will be around 14,600boep for 2022. This is their guess at their share of cost oil and profit oil revenues converted to barrels of oil equivalent
The Gas price is fixed at around $2.9/mcf
The Gas is sold to the Egyptian government
How long it is fixed for? I'm not sure, one would assume the production sharing agreement is reviewed at regular intervals.
Here's a few links that might help you
Egypt estimates for 2022 https://www.capricornenergy.com/media/3217/analyst-information-pack-march-2022.pdf

Egyptian PSA terms https://www.capricornenergy.com/media/2943/cairn-energy-egypt-proposed-acquisition-analyst-presentation-i-final.pdf

PSA analysis https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/WPM25-ProductionSharingAgreementsAnEconomicAnalysis-KBindemann-1999.pdf

Hope it helps you out.

Thanks for the Info Banburyboy.
Do you know the terms of the earn out agreement we have in place with Shell for the Egyptian assets?
I know terms were agreed but can't find the specifics anywhere.

A million shares a day (give or take) at less than 200p per share.
At this rate the company could buy back 80m shares with the £160m the company has at its disposal by mid to late July.
That would leave us with ~250m shares in issue and a market cap of £500m.
£550m of the indian windfall would therefore have been used to halve the number of shares in issue with a corresponding drop in market cap of £550m.
If the company can demonstrate that the new look business can deliver sustainable pre tax profits in excess of £50m, putting us on a P/E of 10, and start paying a sustainable dividend new investors large and small will be keen to invest.
The differentiated approach of returning cash to shareholders has brought with it volatility.
I would prefer a more traditional approach going forward, I am guessing the Egyptian acquisition was a first step along this route.
This all relies on market conditions remaining relatively benign over the next few months.
The traditional sell in May and go away until September would suit the company in my opinion.
Peace in Ukraine looks unlikely at the moment, for my money we have to see this through.
We can't let Putin have any kind of 'win' to show to the people of Russia, China, North Korea, Syria etc etc. He and Russia have to lose, and be seen by all of the world to have lost.
Slava Ukraini

Cash on hand stated as £8.6m on the 31st of March 2022.
Starting to look a little tight.

Hi unhooked,
I sold those at a loss following the ukraine invasion
I actually sold down all but one of my investments, some at a loss, but as a whole with a profit.
I have been picking up a few bargain shares (as I see them) and feel that SUPP may be one.
I have no hesitation making small losses and am playing everything short term for the time being.

Hi barnyrubble,.
The JU-123 is still offshore of the Netherlands.
It is contracted to Taqa to prepare a CO2 storage well, the work seems to be over running a bit as it was due to start in January and last 60 days.
30 million barrels shared 50/50 with Shell and tied back to Shells Nelson platform would do just nicely.

I'm delighted that the fund is looking to invest outside of the UK, I will certainly be voting in favour.
A rename to the Schroders International Public Private seems an obvious move (SIPP)
They are also seeking to renew the authority to buyback up to 14.99% of the stock, again I'll be voting in favour.
I am puzzled that, to the best of my knowledge, they have not bought back a single share despite the share price being in the mid 20s with the NAV in the high 30s.
Is it any wonder that the market questions the accuracy of the NAV.
I welcomed the public investments into Spirent and Johnson Matthey but not the timing of the buys, we are currently underwater on both.
I'm putting toe back in the water again in the hope that it is upwards from here.