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Just reading the report again and the implied saving vs the market cap of the company is incredible...
100% agree. Any discount to NAV is good at the moment considering the fundamentals, but people always think there should be a discount to NAV when it comes to simple commodities for some reason. I think they will be surprised in this case.
Disagree, now that we have seen this which was worth waiting for - this long awaited strategic review was a pleasant surprised and worth waiting for after all! Considering this is the main issue everyone has been talking about it is an incredible plan and correct in terms of positive attributes is a game changer as far as the company is concerned.
Given the changing home eating dynamics, consistent growth every quarter and now a s strategic plan to deal with what everyone agreed was a major pensions issue this is a seriously attractive company. Those who were waiting for a drop into the teens are unlikely to get that imo.
Thank you for that explanation and detail. Unfortunately I am not familiar at all with the complexities of this kind of pension structure. I thought that with one aspect in surplus and the other in deficit there was potentially some positive solution or angle on this but it certainly seems as you suggest more than a simple matter. Regarding Nissin it is possible though that as you mentioned with their distribution angle, long term investment horizon, etc that they applied pressure also in some way with respect to the McCormick bid no?
I think your comment on the government realising these schemes no longer apply in today's environment is pertinent. In terms of good news though I am still a subscriber to the simple philosophy of food manufacturing domestically in their case is good and it seems the positive momentum is continuing currently. Hopefully it carries on that way!
Given a new announcement about indefinite production cuts now at Cameco - it increase the likelihood that other ones at Namibia and Kazakhstan will be extended. I am surprised to not see YCA strongly moving today. Still massive discount to NAV and downside keeps on being removed with each news alert.
Call me an eternal optimist but I just see decent consistent positive volume in a for once desirable market niche with limited foreign supply chain issues.
Even in a recession many of the products would fare well, actually probably better. I wouldn't normally put PF in a safe equity bucket but I increasingly feel it is a lot safer than other things one could own. By the way I am saying this as someone who also doesn't really believe in the broader equity market rally in the last couple of weeks and is generally bearish everything else.
Very interesting, I tried to understand what had happened there but the details are hazy and it certainly seemed like there was more to it than just a simple withdrawal. It seems strange that Darby was did not disclose the MCormick approach if it was serious - I thought there was some obligation to do so? Perhaps only when it was formal but the end result he achieved doesn't seem to have worked out for shareholders so far!
Do you actually know that was why McCormick withdrew or are you just speculating? The reason I ask is because presumably before launching a formal bid etc they had done due diligence and factored in to their modelling. I can see why it might be a problem in general but it seems hard to accept that it was all a surprise to them after bidding...
Given Kazatomprom's temporary mine closures leading to 10m lbs less of uranium produced, this is very very significant. Imagine Saudi Aramco had just said they were reducing their production by 18%, when the only other oil major had just closed their lowest cost production oil well temporarily too - and this is what you have when combining the Cameco and Kazatomprom cuts. (I am not even mentioning the Namibia production cuts either). In my opinion this is phenomenal at any discount to NAV, let alone premium given the supply deficits that are evolving.
I think we have reached peak fear when you guys are on this message board discussing which other stocks to purchase!
In many ways don't blame you....however we have been having a good run this past week so dos that mean you are going to bail out now? It's darkest before the dawn and all that....I am staying well and truly in PF until results are out.
I was thinking about this too in terms of run up and then like we had with last results and on that day the sp didn't fare so well despite the good news. However, fundamentals were still going in the right direction and the new management definitely gives me more confidence than previously although an update would be nice.
We are in some very unprecedented times which whilst parts of the business could be challenged I am going to optimistically believe that it has been net positive. I have also been in this for a long time, not as long as some of you, however I have certainly felt this recent price dip to be worthy of topping up if one has the means. Volume has been decent and recent strength seems consistent. Awaiting the May results with great interest.
Healthy volume and movement today. Looks like some decent sized buys going through in the last two days but hasn't really got anyone's attention. I suppose the volume is going to be somewhat limited on the market depth on any given day. Let's hope it keeps this trajectory going.
Super slow start to the day and then suddenly volume picked up at this late end at least in a positive direction.
Yes whilst obviously it would be more reassuring to hear good news from them on closer inspection there is less comparison than I at first thought and much more of a international exposure. Actually their update seems quite sensible and erring on the conservative/taking precautions side. It could be one to keep an eye on for the future if you can get the timing right.
Thanks that's pretty clear and what I understood. Although I am sure it is a complex area it doesn't seem as insurmountable as some of the posts below seem to think it is. Why would McCormick have even bid back in 2016 if it was completely hopeless to sort this out and I am sure they had some bright minds working on all the aspects.
What is a solution to that then? I hear a lot of comments on this and admittedly don't understand the issue as well as others but I hear no ideas or potential solutions to it.
Agreed an update would very welcome given the extraordinary circumstances.
However I am willing to still give the management the benefit of the doubt at this moment in time as if many of us are correct in our thinking then it is a particularly busy time for the company as a whole. Also I haven't given up on something useful coming out the infamous strategic review, even if it does seem to be very elusive...
However, the supermarket/visit figures mentioned below only increase my thoughts that you can't give up on this yet. The usual risk is mitigated by what we know is happening in the food purchasing market and whilst I expect continued volatility in the short-term globally and perhaps some more share price pain for PF, I am not trying to call a bottom. I believe when this performs we will sit there saying it was obvious.
and the prize for random post of the day goes to... - well apart from your diamond investments, an oil company, and a small cap technology investment (your largest investment?!), I suppose it could be interesting to add a food manufacturing company to the mix. Better fundamentals than the other names you mention. Maybe less volatility but could be decent upside and if you read all the other comments below you can get an idea on the arguments either way going back and forth. One thing no-one is disagreeing about is that food products are being bought.
Just a thought but would rely on your own research before making any decisions...
Very interesting thank you - I think this Greencore news is probably one of the reasons PF is down today
- but I agree with your thinking jed that actually in many ways there is an argument for reverse correlation on a business like Greencore vs PF which will probably be shown to be right. Basis this, there is a good buying opportunity now for the brave.
Would also like an update of some form though, hopefully sooner than later so all of us can make some more decisions either way.
I don't think anything was designed to "draw in new punters" as suggested below. I don't think global conspiracy theories really care that much about PF! Equities are all still going to be volatile (perhaps especially with a downside tilt this week after the macro rally last week). The food business and manufacturing seems to be doing well as clearly explained in jed & ageen's post below. This is a safer place to be than many other equities right now as long as you can weather the volatility. In my opinion whether it's this price or in teens (should it get there) it's a great opportunity to add more should you have dry powder to do so not when you are chasing it up!