RE: Flaporonique friday20 Feb 2026 13:08
FT: Why Iran is betting on war
https://www.ft.com/content/6432bedc-1d22-4e21-9d8d-04f38bcf579b
The FT is somehow blocking Archive so no link to share for those who cannot bypass the paywall. But it is on Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/IRstudies/comments/1r9k6cj/why_iran_is_betting_on_war/
AI summary:
Tehran has increasingly come to view diplomacy as a strategic trap designed to facilitate regime change rather than ensure regional stability. Drawing parallels to the fate of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, Iranian leaders fear that accepting US demands for full disarmament would result in a "slow death" under economic pressure or a swift collapse. Consequently, they see an inevitable military conflict as more cathartic than a weak deal, believing that the current diplomatic path offers no real guarantee of security or the lifting of crippling sanctions.
The Iranian strategy is a high-stakes gamble: they hope to survive a "long war" by exhausting American resolve and inflicting enough regional disruption—targeting oil supplies and utilizing proxies—to force the US back to the negotiating table on more favorable terms. Additionally, the regime calculates that a war could spark a wave of domestic nationalism, helping to bridge the deep divide between the state and its disillusioned citizens. To Tehran, the devastation of war is a risk worth taking if it ultimately forces the West to abandon its pursuit of regime change.
Sounding like it is going to get very messy very soon.