Member Info for nomlungu

Protecting your trade? That is a long speech...

They made a mistake with the classification of their [property] loan book - surely you know that property funds are being stressed and are being forced to liquidate assets to pay out leavers. Bloomberg have been reporting that fund leavers have to take a haircut on some funds whilst others are restricting withdrawals.

And then the BOD had to admit that they had misled the market about who found the discrepancy. The reduction in the value of commercial property [? HOF / DEBS high street etc] tarnishes the value of their loan book.

But ramp on - it only works with small caps.

I can see no reason for the recovery - most of the recent trades have been automated and there has been little volume.

I follow US politics and the implications of Trump's trade policies. There is a lot of unsold soya from last year that is likely to rot whilst the trade / tariff disputes continue [the EU is offering to import soya beans for bio-ethanol refining as part of the negotiations around car and steel / aluminium tariffs but this will be concluded too late to save last years harvest from rotting].

And whilst the dispute continues how can the US farmers fund the purchase of new seeds?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/06/farm-crisis-trump-trade-policies-1147987

I am expecting this to tank later this year which might be present a buying opportunity...

The link works - not a pretty sight.

Fredd1eboy,

There are many vectors to model...

My understanding is that most of Val's shareholders are based in the UK. Brexit is likely to cause a short to medium downturn. This may force some to liquidate their holdings to provide funding for other responsibilities.

A disorderly Brexit is likely to devalue the £ even with the Euro turmoil being caused by the Italian's budget deficits and their current spat with the French.

The BOE will declare any spike in inflation a one off event and will not raise interests in response - they will wait for the spike to work through the annual period they work within.

Potentially, a devaluation of the £ and a sell off by private investors will drive down the share price whilst either of the 2 scenarios play out:

1 - they are unable to provide the market with any deal update before funding is required. A sell off occurs and their will be an opportunity to buy at much lower prices.

2 - the lower of the £ makes this a very attractive buy for a large pharma.

C7,

Your words:

'those who paid 1.33 two days ago are now another 50% down'

Come on C7 - you are working on what percentage uplift is required.

Take a third out of a cake and you have 2 thirds left. To get back to a full cake you need another portion so you need 50 percent more.

Well, the market reaction to the news was a bit disappointing.

I thought that the rise would be sustained but it did not; fortunately I was able to buy a chunk with a limit order when the availability dried up and flip them for a modest profit.

This share has treated me well so far and one day the wider market will appreciate the dCell tech but until then this appears to be a trading share where timing and watching the volume and availability is key.

At least with the significant shareholders there is no dark pool in operation - or as others would say most shares are in sticky hands as the free float is minimal.

https://www.tissueregenix.com/products/dcell-technology/overview.html

https://www.tissueregenix.com/investors/advisors-and-shareholders.html

C7,

85/129=65.89 or 129/2=64.5

Your maths needs a lot to desire - if they had lost 50 percent on your numbers the price would be 0.645p.

Simple maths?

Humans do not self-combust. The link is about the York B&M fire last year...

50 percent down?

More like 34.21 percent - close to the haircut that I have recently taken on the 'other share' now that they also may have a funding problem.

Maybe a bit early - bluebells can flower anytime from mid-March to early May. So, still a chance for Q1.

inanaco,

I thought that you do not answer 666 calls?

Oversold? An easy comment to make, but an 'oversold' share is when the market has overreacted to bad news.

At this stage the cause of the problem is not fully understood. As I stated, the value of Ocado is in the licensing of their platform. The fire has to be forensically analysed - only then will the extent of the news be understood and then judgement can be made on whether the share is oversold.

It is worth remembering that this is a board were opinions are discussed, whether they are positive, negative or neutral.

Well that big trade is going to set the cat on the pigeons - I see a large rise tomorrow and endless posts stating:

'I don't want to be out of this over the weekend'
'massive RNS coming'
'ANGS investors bailing and coming over here'

Enjoy the rise if it happens.

sj,

What he is forecasting has not happened yet - banks need higher interest rates and an expanding economy to profit. The downgrading of growth forecasts does not help.

In normal circumstances the possible inflation spike caused by Brexit would lead to a rise in interest rates but the Reserve Bank will be reluctant to increase them as they will deem the spike a 'one off' and increasing rates would put further downward pressure on growth forecasts. With the way that Metro Bank is geared any increase in interest rates will put pressure on the viability of their loan book as stressed borrowers will have further difficulty servicing their loans.

And there is the 'elephant in the room' - will they need to raise additional capital. Some are expecting another raise of around £300m just to keep the BOE happy.

My opinion is this is a dead duck floating in a pike infested pool that may be of interest sometime way into the future once clarity on the economy and the health of Metro Banks loans becomes more apparent.

Not for me but I do like watching slow-motion train crashes...

Did you not listen to Mark Carney's speech?

'No pr is bad pr' - I disagree.

The value of Ocado is not the (non-existent) profit from grocery deliveries; it is valued as a scalable IT solution for grocers who do not have their own delivery systems. Any doubts on the reliability of the system will impact on future (and possibly current) licensing of their IT platform.

They may well be able to recoup the direct losses through insurance but the cost of the reputational damage is yet unknown.

Just had my groceries delivered - the word amongst the Ocado drivers is that a lithium iron battery caught fire. They thought that they had extinguished the fire but the grid kept rolling which spread the fire throughout the warehouse.

If so, there appears to be a fundamental flaw in the whole grid design.

Bloomberg article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/interserve-hands-control-to-its-creditors-in-debt-restructuring

Alternative view - if someone was planning on investing £100k in Valirx they will have done their research and would have known that there is a distinct possibility that there will be a fund raising round in the foreseeable future.

Under those circumstances they would be more likely to have registered with Novum to participate in the anticipated fund raising round, especially as the history is that the fund raising rounds have been deeply discounted.

Obviously nobody on this board will know the real facts but for those who 'follow the money' and think that this is a massive buy signal it is worth considering the alternative view.