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For me, anything under £1 and shareholders have been shafted. £1-1.50* is fair for this moment in time *given the circumstances of having the board totally outmaneuvered by Ganfeng (although I suspect Secker always knew this would happen and why he hasn't cared for publicity - he wanted BCN to stay under the radar as much as possible). Longer term I was expecting £4 around Stage 2 production.
Now these numbers aren't crazy or going to make everyone into millionaires, but the principle is it is hard to find a good company to have safe future growth. Shareholders have taken a massive amount of risk and now that it has paid off, we don't get any of the reward. I hope M&G side with the shareholders (from this board anyway) and reject the deal. There is a strong hand of opposition and we can get that figure well over the £1. Ganfeng have the money and won't lose control of a strategic world class asset for the matter of £100-200m.
I was in Codemasters when the Take Two bid of £725m, which people were going to vote through, was trumped by EA for £945m. That was a big increase but it mattered strategically to EA to dominate racing games. What's this worth to Ganfeng? Much much more.
Yes well done. Bit of a shame the article focused so heavily on the resource not falling in to Chinese hands, rather than the derisory and morally questionable offer.
It’s good to put pressure on the board (and Ganfeng to a lesser extent).
Could someone copy the article? It’s behind a pay wall.
Dee - have you counted up how many shares they all own collectively? Be very interesting. I suspect it will be less than 1% of the company? Most larger pi won’t post on boards like this.
It's amazing you can lose £12m in mcap with only a few hundred k of trading, while also providing the market with positive RNS's.
Thank you maqsood - so the 40% drop isn't a fair / real reflection on events as the IPO placing was valued at £48m? Was about to jump in for a trade but might wait until know more about the company.
What's the market cap here at 4.4p? I see the placing valued the company at £48m - is it now 43% less? Seems a big discount...
I'm not happy to take and run at 67p, my thoughts are now that I would be happy to take and run at say 90p. When the takeover was first announced I would not of said this. However, being in a jv with a hostile partner may throw up problems. If they gave 90p then I will of made 40% profit, where as at 67p I'm only making 20%. My average is around 55p, having bought in early at 80p mark and subsequently averaging down at 21p and 45p. For 5/6 years, 20% is a very poor return but 40% is not terrible. It's better than an average fund, although it's clearly well below what I would hope or expect given the nature of the investment.
Today's operational update was clearly just a side to release the Ganfeng completion of equity. It's the first step before an offer. I'm assuming Ganfeng will wait until their shares are admitted before proceeding, although it is not a requirement. Reckon offer on Friday 28th May.
Also, just to note, in Genfeng's press ie Sonora, they have said the reason for buying it is to accelerate the development. So even though the board are sticking to H2 2023, it seems like Ganfeng have other ideas. Are we going to sell out and find out construction can actually be done in 18 months?
Can't wait for the earthworks and access to begin construction - really exciting times. Have been waiting for this moment for six years. Additionally, buying the 9000 hectares of land south of the current concession sounds like a shrewd move, avoiding potential future access issues. Combine that with Ganfeng already tendering the engineering packages (didn't even know those were finished!) and we have a really solid update. Things seem to be moving along very well. Oh wait....
Exactly, Ganfeng have all the control now and will be happy to sit on those engineering reports. It could prove difficult going forward and they will have a lot more patience than us.
Bonkers - agreed. If this deal had happened pre-finance, then I would not of been ecstatic, but would of accepted the outcome. The single biggest risk in this whole development is construction finance. So to sell out as soon as that has happened (with major dilution at a hefty discount) is just wrong. I really hope the board have a change in heart and do not recommend the offer.
In a way the best outcome for everyone will be for Ganfeng to increase the offer to a fair amount (say 90-100p). I wouldn't be against that value at this stage and would take the money and move on. Obviously won't happen, this is why the Chinese are beginning to dominate the world.
Peter Secker definitely has an incentive plan where he gets a bonus (in shares) if BCN are sold. I can definitely remember reading it and it was much hyped at the time. Fairly sure this was back when REM/ KDNC were still active and BCN were about to move over to London. I've since looked back through announcements, searching "incentive" "bonus" "acquisition" etc but no luck finding the detail.
Does any of the other LTH remember and know where this was written? It will be useful to clarify.
It's good news and what we have all been waiting on. Looks like the slow start to the year has been getting the house in order. I3e should now be into a period of positive news flow with maiden dividend announcement, drilling campaigns in Canada, acquisitions or further farm ins and of course the potential Serenity farm out (key to pushing i3e onto the next level quickly). It's been a tough hold but could well be a very exciting year ahead.
Very good article that touches on all the issues - hopefully someone puts it in front of Secker et al. I'm convinced this offer is only recommended as the board would much rather realise a few million each now, rather than say £5m in a few years. It's an end game and get out for them - for us, it's disappointment after funding their life for the last five years.
Not sure many people will stick with this for an 8% divi when the sp can go up or down by that in a day. Dividends work for stable companies with much higher mcaps. Personally, I feel we are almost there and sentiment will turn when the court issue is cleared up. After that point, there will be no legacy issues to hold this back.
Interesting development. I’ve scaled in over last few days. Punt money imho but looks interesting.
Has director bought? Can’t see RNS?
Surely at this price a large share buyback is best value for our money? I know that's not the plan but can't help but think.
SP getting into crazy territory here.
Same. Funny in a copied message to still have a typo. Hopefully she has forwarded it, suspect not.