The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Very interesting that Eric Nuttall believes with the market at such depressed prices, every company should be doing share buy backs with their spare cash flow. I thought the same would be a good strategy for i3e as the company is so under priced. Surprised it is not the boards intentions to do so.
TheHickster - it is undervalued here but not ridiculously. For Canada assets I3e should probably be trading around 18-20p, given stocks often trade at a discount to true value. When doing your calculations always factor in the gas mix and that most of the production is not oil.
They had 159m according to I3e website, this tr1 states they have 156m. Does appear they’ve sold a small amount.
I did!
I've been surprised, as a producer, why i3e do not seem to ride the wave that some companies do by going up when commodity prices go up. The only gains i3e seem to produce is when they increase production.
28p valuation now for Canadian assets alone.
To follow Ark87 post - Majid noted while he can not discuss specifics of the deal, it's along the lines of keeping operatorship with a significant percentage in return for a free carry on a drill. Sounds like we will be quite happy with the outcome.
Bit of a poor start to trading today. Expectations for larger divi perhaps?
Graham Heath is usually good at relating i3e's performance to it's peers in Canada, this is the best (only?) metric to go by.
Given the news at the moment, it would be a good time to drop the farm out for Serenity. It’s gone very quiet on this front and taken much longer to close than I thought. My only suggestion is with i3e’s new production base, we no longer have our hands tied behind our backs and are being stronger in negotiation. But that may be an optimistic view.
I suspect market is waiting on half year results... i3e's pe ratio may look silly. Like the Gain assets, the market is waiting for proof that the new acquisition has been integrated successfully.
See the interim report and dividend announcement as the next big news (assuming Serenity won’t drop). Last year it was released 8th September, the previous year on the 30th.
Hopefully we don't follow DGOC exactly but an interesting comparison nonetheless. Their market cap on admission was £70m and it is now over £900m but the share price has only doubled from 55 to 100p over 3 years. Shows what accretive acquisitions can do to the mcap vs sp (as an investor I only really care about the sp and want much higher returns from i3e). Caveat being DGOC have returned around a 10% dividend by committing to releasing at least 40% of free cash flow.
The best metric to discuss i3e dividend is the pence per share (i.e. 0.45p and 1.28p 2021), as there will hopefully be an appreciation in share price that will dilute the apparent dividend yield based on buy in price.
Justfencing - on aim and low mcap companies with fairly low volume, day to day variations (or even weekly/ monthly) are not rational. Only rational moves happen long term. Even on news the market doesn’t react rational to the value (positive or negative) of that news.
Value does hold out though and it’s why I’m so heavy into I3e. I was buying anything I could under 4p last year, with the sp staying down for an oddly long time. But eventually it found a new base above 10p. I see this as the same, in a few weeks or months, I3e will find a new base and I suspect it will be around 20p. Fundamentals are really really strong and it won’t fall into the aim pit of having a very undervalued asset, hence low mcap, hence can’t raise monies to fund a development. I3e are making good money and the Tennyson analysis seemed quite well informed, regarding a move towards organic growth and/or debt financing from this point.
With next twelve months NOI sitting at $94m (or £68m), the future dividend payment over the year is looking to be £13 - 20m. Even if the lower amount is paid out, at current mcap that is over a 10% yield. Those rates along with mcap appreciation make i3e one of the best investments in my opinion and is why it is so heavily weighted in my portfolio.
Interesting waiting on field investment decision for Serenity, basically guarantees it is tied into Tain and Repsol Sinopec and/or Viaro. As we all thought.
Always satisfying when you top up and the price instantly jumps up a few %.
Thanks Tony, that's useful. So perhaps around 2% or so in September. Obviously share price appreciation on news is still the key driver but 2% payout not to be sniffed at. Especially if Serenity farm-out does drop in Q3 as outlined in latest presentations.
Does anyone have an estimate what 20% of H1 2021 FCF will be?
Around $7m? Have some capital and wondering whether it is worth putting additional money into i3e purely on the dividend payout in September.
Was skeptical of this strategy for an aim junior but getting £1500 into the account on Friday was quite nice. Put it straight back into i3e. Portfolio is now over 40% i3e. Fundamentals are so solid and the news flow will accelerate once the acquisition is embedded.
Well done all, we are officially a unicorn - 1 billion shares in issue! I remember on admission i3e had 25m.