For what it's worth31 Dec 2018 09:12
Given the side track of the Equinor asset sale and subsequent comments about the value of JOG's assets, perhaps we should have a closer look at what the Company have told us.
We believe we have 25 Mmbbl in the hutch and the appraisal well is to determine the resource range of Verbier up to 130 Mmbbl with a mean figure of 69 MMbbl.
Cortina is for later and subject to ongoing work on the latest 3D survey but it is estimated to contain between 39 and 249 MMbbl recoverable. As Dick recently stated both Verbier and Cortina straddle the Bucham oil field. Interestingly, Buchan was originally estimated to contain between 50 and 120 MMbbl. It has finally produced just over 150 MMbbl. The fact that we are so close to Buchan not only helps from a potential oil perspective but also it keeps extraction costs low, due to the infrastructure already in the area.
So let's have a closer look at the Verbier parameters. JOG have stated that the combined costs, capex, opex and abex as being in the range of $26-35 per barrel of oil, over the lifecycle. So taking the price of oil at $54 per barrel, that gives us a gross profit of $19 a barrel or £15 at the top end of costs. Presumably, the more oil we discover the economies of scale will move the costs down pro rata towards the $26 per barrel level.
25 million @ 18% = 4.5 million x £15 = £ 67.5m or £3.10 per share.
69 million @ 18% = 12.4 million x £15 = £186 m or £8.55 per share.
130 million @ 18% = 23.4 million x £15 = £351 million or £16.10 per share.
These figures do not take into account the outstanding cash after Verbier of approximately 50p per share or Cortina and the other assets on P2170.
This is of course tempered by the fact that it all has to be proved up but we have very good partners to help us do it.
The risk vs reward in my view is excellent.
https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/JOG-Proactive-Investors-December-2018-Read-Only.pdf