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Mixed feelings for 2018 thus far Greendave. Delay after significant delay but then a major change in proceedings with the Mauritius Commercial Bank/Tragigura term sheet and the promise of a significant service provider agreement and also the promise of a run of good news (rig etc?). Then before we can even slip on our smoking jackets and slippers and pour a drink its back to a delay. We were almost within touching distance of finishing on a high here. Still not out of the question that we get off and running in 2018, it's all down to EM and Arthur's definition of 'shortly' (I hope its the same as mine).

Thanks for taking the time to do that iamrich. It is good that board meetings are still going on and the positive vibes I hope will soon be seen in an official announcement. We can then got on with where we hope to be going.

R-Dunc, I'm off for a beer too. Seems to be the right thing to do on a Friday evening.

Thanks Jiving. Your post makes good sense. I read the wording of the announcement wrong.

Jiving, Found the bit that stuck in my head. It was from the short announcement on 14th August.

Arthur Millholland, President & CEO, commented: "A major component to our financing activities is the credit facility of up to US$50 million into our subsidiary ShoreCan from The Mauritius Commercial Bank Limited and Trafigura, agreed to and released on July 30, 2018."
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=COPL&ArticleCode=jt1y4s4f&ArticleHeadline=Q2_2018_Results

Now I read that as the credit facility was released on that date. The word 'into' probably steering me that way as much as the word 'released'.

However, that could, given your prompt be viewed as meaning notification of the credit facility was released on that date.

Any help appreciated on this one.

Jiving, Good call on that. I'm struggling to find the bit I had in my head about the monies deposited. I'll give it another try later but in the meantime strike my comments on that for now.

Spot on Rift. It does make for a better board as we found out recently. Doesn't mean we can't have respectful disagreements though as I gain more from reading two sides.

As previously said I did contact Arthur regarding the EM dispute and its effect on the SPA but would welcome someone else doing the same.

Appreciate people can be irritating (hands up) Rift, my concern is that you get a reply and we descend into a barrage of posts that are all about personality clashes rather than the issues we have here. The informative posts then get lost.

'There's a cohort of scum who steep really low out there.'

Do you really have to bring the board down to that level each and every time Rift. It doesn't reflect on you well.

R-Dunc I too don't believe the Agamore case is holding anything up. The Bank of Mauritius/Trafigura money was agreed and paid into escrow ($50m) while that case was already at court and the SPA was on the cusp of being agreed. So makes sense that things are not being delayed by the resolution of Agamore. My position has always been Agamore is not an issue for my own risk assessments.

My correspondence with Art was purely about the EM dispute which it was stated had to be resolved to move forward with the SPA. If that is sorted shortly as Art believes then we will get our momentum.

'So this can just drag on until we pay they off. They can just delay delay delay till then.'

Almost a given that is what they will try to do Indi but one of the courts purposes is to take control of proceedings. They won't allow either party to mock the system for too long before they are shut down, of that I am sure.

Sentiment rock bottom here. Hopefully the next bit of news we get is good news. I am pretty sure that Art is doing the FDP while all this is going on and Kola is running things for both disputes.

In the meantime we await the EM dispute being settled 'shortly'.

Agamore are trying it on, that's one thing I can agree with Art on and that's not solely based upon the details we have been provided. Just on the length of time they have been absent from OPL226 and the fact they did not raise any challenge when Shorecan took legal control of Essar Nigeria two years ago tells me all I need to know. I may be setting myself up for a kick up the erse here but I see no prospect of them getting what they want. The tactic they are using is 'pressure by time'. Sometimes firms get paid off not because they rightfully should but because it is easier for firms under time constraint pressures to do so. That is what I plainly see as Agamore's objective here.

Shorecan are having none of it and it and Agamore I suspect will be asked to stand up by the court and explain themselves sooner rather than later.

The reality is we are very unlikely to get any update on Agamore until it is settled. It may be that it was settled in the mind of the judge/panel at the hearing (if it took place) yesterday. It would be unusual for those considering the case not to show that due consideration had been given to the case. The decision has to be written up and then conveyed in writing to each party so each fully understands the rational for the decision and to negate any ambiguity. Otherwise it may be that further info is needed or further meetings with both parties is required. Given that we have been told that this is an entirely spurious claim, without justification, there has to be a realistic chance we will get a result on this in the next few weeks, if as said the case went ahead yesterday.

It would also be reasonable to expect some sort of an update on the EM case in the weeks immediately after 9th Oct be that EM escalating in line with their notice, negotiations ongoing (meaning they are talking) or the matter settled. No idea as to which way that will go. Don't know enough, but the CEO seems confident it will be resolved in short order (I know, I know).

These are my present timescales.

Next 12 months is going to be pretty eventful. Looking forward to it.

Indi, really well written post.

'Why AAz, and not Hum?'

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AAZ have been producing for years and have an extended LoM.

We on the other hand have not.

As an aside I disagree with much of the criticism aimed at the managers here. They gave their all in getting this mine up and running and the work that went into that it seems is to a great extent already forgotten. As is often the case investors (including myself in the past I hasten to add) want things to happen in accordance with their own timeline and how they want the SP to be. However there has to be recognition that getting the mine built and producing on time and on budget was the first and most crucial step, which took time, and only now can management turn its endeavours to ensuring that we extend our shelf life. That is now their priority along with proving they can sustain production in line with or exceeding targets.That also takes time.

They know their priority too:

'Our next focus is to prove that we can extend the mine life of Yanfolila by converting Resources to Reserves through the Group's exploration campaign, which is underway.' http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=HUM&ArticleCode=o0g0zpg5&ArticleHeadline=Q2_2018_Production_Results_and_Operational_Update

They've got it right for adding value. Free cashflow will take care of the rest.

Taken from an unconnected announcement but never know one or two fertiliser companies might be announcing this in in the not too distant future; 'Extremely challenging first half with significant business disruption caused by an aggressive new market entrant'.

Good post Asianoil.

I cannot argue that things are, to differing extents, out of the hands of Shorecan.

I have a view on Agamore that due to the information provided in both the 2017 & 2018 prospectus that Shorecan knew about Agamore prior to taking control of Essar Nigeria and had to have given it due legal consideration at that point. I would be staggered if Agamore had, at that time let alone now, any legitimate toehold into the company. The one unknown is a Nigerian Court and the possibility for backhanders. I have negated that prospect quite heavily with Kola Karim being in the frame plus the government agencies all of whom run with our company in that dispute.

Essar Mauritius on the other hand is another matter and remains my concern. You are right we don't know much here and what we have pieced together or been told may be wrong. One thing we do know though is that EM and its parent are not, it seems, in a position to financially fight a legal challenge unless they have help or forsee a significant pay day awarded by the court at the end. My view is that that, for many reasons, is a forlorn hope. We shall see.

None of the parties are in a position to let things go on for long, we do know that.

Indi, I believe you have got the right order for the last three. My understanding is that NNPC will need to see that the parties have the financial means to develop the field so one part already done (Bank Mauritius/Trafigura), the SPA next then NNPC.

Didn't think it appropriate to respond over the weekend but it was good to hear from you. Hope things are okay your end.