Member Info for NoEasy

I know that Art has left the 2018 timeframe to drill in his recent announcements but that has to be sheer laziness. This is a huge undertaking, we don't yet have the SPA, we don't yet have the SPA and finance. We don't have a rig on site and we haven't yet provided the field development plan to the NNPC who will have to have time to review it. All within 6 weeks?

End of Q1 at the earliest for me and that's pushing it.

I spent a lot of time working through the different scenarios Indi and the best one and the one I have stuck to is that at the time of the August podcasts by Arthur the threat by EM had not been known. Following on from another case (OEX) I took it from my research that what had in fact happened was EM gave Shorecan 60 days notice taking it up to the 9th October. That would mean the notification from EM was initially received by Shorecan sometime around 9th August. That would tie in with my view Arthur had no idea at the time of the podcasts that EM were going to blow the doors of his timescale.

I also got a very similar email as R_Dunc did from Arthur stating that the EM dispute would impact the SPA hence my stance at the time.

So what has changed so that the EM dispute may no longer impact the SPA. Well for one we know that the 60 days is well past. In the OEX case the Event of Default notice was served immediately that the 60 days was up. Doesn't mean it still can't carry out its action just that they had their timescale but have not actioned it. That errs me to the positive. Secondly we now know from Rift's recent contact that the SPA negotiations are only for Shorecan's 80% and not EM's (EN) share of field development. This may also be a very clever manoeuvre that takes the veto out of the hands of EM.

All the little bits plus the big bits (NNPC extension) are very much starting to stack up and I am certainly of the view that I have to and indeed I am taking Arthur's words seriously now.

Thanks for the analogy with Sea Lion Beynon. That info helps put together what may be happening here. Good stuff.

Tremendous stuff. Well done Rift.

So Ministerial approval by year end.
SPA not being held up by Essar.
SPA is for services AND finance if we go with the new entity.

We will have $80m of services to get to the production stage and meet the Commercial Bank of Mauritius/Trafigura conditions for their Term Sheet. Essar's $20m is made up of oil revenue, those costs are deducted from Essar's share of first oil, they don't get anything until full payment plus interest & associated costs are recovered.

What are we missing?

Yes you are right Rift, I now remember you mentioning that point previously. That answers the same question I had. Thanks.

Let me look positively at the EM situation (alternative views are available) and it is interesting that EM haven't even got to first base under the Shareholders Agreement (SA). Do we really have a dispute entered around partners in the SA not doing their bit?

It seems to me this 'dispute' is about money, and only money, not failures of one party or the other to fulfil their obligations under the SA. This is about how much EM want paid for their percentage of the company not issues around responsibilities. They have been given an offer and have rejected it. They rejected it in a way that then sought to put pressure on Shorecan to get that offer increased.

This isn't a 'dispute' it's a 'negotiation'.

The tactic we are seeing is designed to extract maximum value whatever that may turn out to be.

You are on fire this morning Jiving. Great stuff, thanks.

The PSC extension is highly significant news. We have spent many, many posts discussing NNPC approval and whether they were on board. The PSC had lapsed and without it we couldn't drill a worm hole. They are on board as Art had indeed indicated and I can take for this that there really is a realistic timeframe for all approvals by year end.

Would be nice to think there has been a directive for total shut down in comms with shareholders due to positive developments soon to be announced. I have not received any email back from a query I had and that seems to be the case with others. As it would be in line with our expected news period (until year end) I don't see it as being unfeasible that this is the case.

As far as the dispute with EM goes we know they want out, we strongly suspect that is due to their parent company being in dire position financially, they want out quickly and their recent behaviour has been aimed at pressurising Shorecan to get as much cash as possible. I no longer view them as a participating partner.

This project isn't an illusion, it has solid credentials. Just need Shorecans management to back up their own credentials with much needed progress on approvals and finance. 'Shortly' is most definitely just about up as is 'year end'.

I'm doing likewise Tom and have added some more today. Always a risk with any nascent company but I see good growth potential here. I like Gilby's strategy, I like him and I like what the project has to offer.

I also see the emergence of a partner being a realistic prospect here, Colm Cloonan said as much in June. They were only words but the African Oil Gas and Energy Conference held in August in Australia highlighted how multiple partners in the one project is a norm. (Slide 7)
http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Final-Tlou_AOGE_2708.pdf

Q1 2019 is the breakthrough period.

I'm hoping they're saving it all up for the mother of all releases Bob:-) Blitz us with good news like never before. Happiness dripping off the walls.

I'll make an appointment with the doctor tomorrow.

Yep even a reply by Cathy/Art to one of the emails that have been sent by shareholders concerning the Agamore case wouldn't have gone amiss.

Fsj I look on BH as a plus. As you point out.the BoD spent $2m not $20m. That the deal went wrong almost immediately demonstrated a total lack of risk understanding or playing fast and loose with income. That result or lack of plus investor reaction will have served up a salutary lesson to them that they have to be much better in picking future projects. No bad thing at this stage of proceedings.

I'm with you, simply ignoring the success of this management and failing to apply balance when they make a mistake does them a disservice.

I asked. No reply. Best guess is that it has been kicked down the road..... again.

Can only read the headline Rift. You would hope he hasn't been too busy elsewhere and forgotten he is CEO of Shorecan!

Lacklustre at the moment but confident there will be a shine. Energy needed and we've got the energy. Africa is demanding it and we have, without over egging the pudding, the right management with huge experience to deliver.

Cracking find Jiving.

There was something in that link that answers a big, big question for me. It goes to the heart of the dispute with EM.

They cannot pay their part and my thought has always been 'how do we show NNPC we have the finances to support the field development plan'. That is a vital part for obtaining NNPC/Ministerial approval. Where we going to have to find more money to replace the part missing before we could get approvals?

The answer it seems is no we won't have to find extra, NNPC will allow future oil revenue to be part of the finance package;

'Under the agreement, global oil services giant, Schlumberger will provide 724.14 million dollars out of the required project cost of 1.082 billion dollars.

The balance of 358.79 million dollars will be funded with cash flows generated by the project.'

Oh I've done my research Bell, how about you doing the same in terms of decimal points and currency?

'Or it’s someone who had the 0.1p options dumping them as this stocks going nowhere fast and better to make .15p profit than nothing at all .'

Talk us through that one then Bell. Sure you have got that right?

'So I take the news of a second SP with mixed feelings.'

So do I. We don't know who the first one was and we don't know who has supposedly poked their nose in. But it doesn't really matter provided it is imminent.

Lets not p@ss around here Kola (Arthur won't be the lead on this) that clock is definitely ticking.