Member Info for Nobodyspecial

Yes, GKP PSCs are from the noughties, but the tone from Sudani just seems anti Kurd oiler, regardless.

In the 12th Dec 22 RNS, GKP advised that proceedings in the Baghdad Commercial Court, seeking to nullify the PSCs issued under the Kurdi Oil & Gas Law, went against GKP on 23rd Oct 22. GKP weren’t present. They learned about the decision from the news.
Judgements were reportedly issued against several other IOCs.

GKP stated then that “The KRG continues to affirm that KROGL is validly constituted and the PSCs issued are valid and in full force and effect.”

Yeah, well, the KRG say anything. True or not. And we now know what the Paris Court decided in the interim.

In this instance, the KRG might like to conveniently scapegoat the nasty, exploitative IOCs who continue to place a dreadful, Iraqi wealth reducing debt burden on them, via the KRG PSCs.
I can’t see the KRG doing anything to help GKP now. They never have before. Why wouldn’t they chuck GKP under the bus?
They’re already telling porkies to Sudani – “Honestly guv, it wasn’t us! Blame the IOCs, they exploited us! They’re taking all the money! Go after them!”

Everyone’s a winner. The ICG gets to flex its newly affirmed muscle, finally getting its way. The KRG can shift blame – to the naughty IOCs.
And yep, in this grimy scenario, apparently the Kurdi IOCs “win” because they’re allowed to stay “without apprehension or trepidation”, after defying Big Bad Baghdad - though likely under penalties, and with improved terms for SOMO. And if GKP don’t like it, new entrants will be invited in to replace them under newly legalised KRG TSCs, as part of “augmenting the legal legitimacy of oil sales, and facilitating the participation of all international companies” i.e. bang gone at a lowly TSC based valuation.
Everyone’s face is saved. Only GKP shareholders suffer – always the least of the ICG or KRG’s concerns. And if there are any KRG GKP holders, I expect they’re already minted after shorting GKP in advance of every other disaster they befell on it….and the proceeds from their secured bonds after the re-structure ??
SOMO rhymes with FOMO – and ICG wouldn’t want that, would they?
The devil’s in the detail and the only thing we know for sure is that the ICG and KRG are happy with the deal. Lots of talk about a win win for IGC and KRG. And Turkey too. But have any IOCs come out in support of the deal yet?
What price trying to sort all this out in court, arguing with the ICG that the PSCs aren’t exploitative instead? Does GKP need that hassle?
What’s the price to be paid by GKP for payment stability under SOMO?
Is Talabani speaking with a forked tongue?

That said, if the "KRG blend" gets away at Brent prices, maybe there’s still room for GKP to get a smaller slice, but of the bigger pie. No harm, no foul.

I hope the IOC BODs are putting up a good fight, but it doesn’t look like they’ve got much leverage, no fans at the ICG and never had ever any loyalty from t

"In an interview with Al Jazeera aired on Sunday, Sudani said that the Kurdistan Region had no choice but to accept unbalanced deals back in 2014, adding that the IOCs had exploited Erbil at the time."

A bit to soon to assume SOMO will graciously honour the PSCs. There's still a battle to be fought here. And noises like that from Sudani don't bode well.

It wouldn't surprise me if after all of this, penalties are actually imposed on GKP, for facilitating the KRG and defying the ICG.

I'd expect these penalties to conveniently equate to the money the KRG owes GKP for developing and producing "their oil".

This is a preposterous idea - and therefore almost 100% guaranteed. This is GKP after all.

No Rav you're not thick :)

There was an 85:15 debt for equity swap at GKP, where the bondholders made it off with the company, as it was back then (pain reduced to 80/20 if you were equity and took part in the open offer). Then there was the 100:1 consolidation. It properly broke all the share price charts at the time :)

So "old" GKP holders never saw £118. It was £4.65 back then.

But you're right, GKP did many many multiples after Shaikan and subsequent discoveries. Though the all time £4.65 high was acheived artificailly, after media reports of an £8.00 per share take out by Exxon. All part of GKP lore now.

We shouldn't even mention the G word around here. This is a happy place. No bond holders. No KRG. No heavy oil. No TK. No Nadhim Zahawi.

This is could be a similar, but far different story.

CASP have a higher WI on the assets and better quality oil. They also have ther own drilling equipment and cash flow from the shallows. And could potnetially fund any major FDP capex with sale of McBoaty and/or 3AB. We're yet to see how much the lifting costs will pan out to be on any deep discos, and what the FDPs have in store in terms of reserves/plateau rates.

But CASP don't have to find a field the size of Shaikan, to realise the kind of value, and dividends, that Shaikan ultimately ended up paying out.

Shhhh, Don't mention GK.....

:-D

GKP at £118?

Lol, if only...

Their high was £4.65 before the painful re-financing and subsequent 100:1 consolidation that wiped out a load of PIs.

No bonds at CASP. Better quality oil than Shaikan's heavy, sour KBT blend. And no ongoing payments/contractual risk with central and regional governments, unlike GKP.

The similarities between the 2 are in the potential size of the discoveries. Interesting that when GKP fist hit at Shaikan they reported potential OIP figures, rather than flow rates. It was when they went from an intial 400m OIP to 4.2bn+ OIP, in the first weeks and months after the first RNS, that the "old" GKP share price motored up from sub 10p to £1.00+

"they are still far short of the 675p of five years ago"

As short as the research on GKP's historical share price?

It was a normal and a sepcial, paid in two tranches, with the first third paid in Aug 19, the final two thirds paid in Oct 19

First payment worked out at 5.682p per share and second was 11.61p per share after FX

No, I'm Spartacus

:-D

nufc9 - "itcanonlygetbetter"?

Did you you ever get any further support on this? I shared some thoughts but...
For info, sadly, Judge Nancy passed away in March last year.

ATB

NS

Oh for goodness sake!

A little bit of perspective. There's only been 25 posts since yesterday morning. I'd suggest you try looking at a Covid stock board to more accurately guauge what people getting excited really looks like.

Or maybe reminisce a little back to the days when the GKP board would have had 25 posts in 10 minutes and the real BBBS would have racked up several hundred ticks by now.

I suppose Scaramouche, Dalesmann, Spidy Monkey and of course, the legendary Sanddunes, will all now start posting again too?

I just can't tell you how much I look forward to seeing their sudden new contributions.

Give me strength.

And what if the attendee who stood up and asked the questions was none other than the esteemed guest speaker, Nadhim Zahawi?

I must be high.

Those are some very large numbers (120m) in a hell of a lot of countries (133).

Have Bill and Melinda bypassed Mologic to go with Abbot and SD Biosensor?

This is very interesting

Nice find CCC

Though to me, it's a curious article.

It ends with "a Canadian company has apparently fallen prey to this arrangement while investments by other nations’ companies side-step such bait-and-switch schemes"

??? Oryx was bought by Zeg Oil and Gas in 2016. Oryx, for all intents and purposes, is about as Canadian as St George! It's owned by the KRG! How did the author miss this?

And how can the author specifically name other companies like Dana, Crescent and DNO and then suggest that ony Canadian companies have been led a merry dance by the KRG?

Strange

IMO

Nahhh C.eye, I'm not disputing that there's clearly going to be a risk discount, but I don't think Taqa just multiplied the MCAP by an arbitrary value of 3. I know what point you were trying to make, but I agree with NUFC - that offer, "if" true, was hopefully based on some valuation of the known resources.

The per barrel prices I have given aren't massively out of line with those you normally see for E&P deals. They're pretty reasonable for an on shore fieldd with low lifting costs. And I guess it could be argued that's because of the KRG risk discount. Without the KRG, a per barrel price nearer £8.00, wouldn't be far fetched.

IMO - but yeah, the city's hardly going to love a Kurdish deal given the history, for sure.

But we didn't fail to drill it Bugsy, did we?

Shaikan 1 hit it right in the sweet spot and if what we were told is to be believed, spent 3 days trying to prevent a blow out from all the high pressured light sweet oil and gas that was rapidly making its exit at the surface!

Ah the Permian hey? Whatever happened to that?

Disappeared along with Sheik Adi, Ber Bahr, Akri, Gokana, our payments, the 2nd Amendment, the CPR, 55k bopd, Ferrier, Zouari, Zahawi etc etc etc etc etc

p.p.s not above, below. Doh

p.s above should read 578 MMbl for GKPs Gross 2P reserves, not 578 Mbbl
i.e. many hundreds of millions more than ShaMarans.

Silly of me to understate Shaikan's reserves like that. But hey, everyone else does too. No?

ATB

So, for the sport

ShaMaran’s MCAP was $75.67m CAD at yesterday’s close of 3.5 cents. They’re up 71% to 6 cents now.

Three times yesterday’s MCAP at a CAD:GBP rate of 0.59 equals £133.93m

Looking at possible per barrel price reads across to GKP…..

From the 31st December 2019 figures from ShaMaran’s Reserves/Resources page (https://www.shamaranpetroleum.com/operations/reserves-resources/) ….

Their Gross 3P reserves are 43,126 Mbbl (£3.11 per barrel)
Their Net 3P reserves are 20,502 Mbbl (£6.53 per barrel)

Their Gross 2P reserves are 29,946 Mbbl (£4.47 per barrel)
Their Net 2P reserves are 15,917 Mbbl (£8.41 per barrel)

95% of ShaMaran’s reserves are classed as medium/light oil. 5% are heavy.

So being “conservative” and using the lower Gross 3P reserves per barrel price above (£3.11) on Shaikan’s 2P Gross reserves numbers (instead of the larger 3P numbers), the same buyer might steal GKP’s “conservative” 578 Mbbl Gross 2P reserves (along with the cash in the bank) for £1.795 billion.

If they paid the implied Gross 2P rate of £4.47 per barrel they would pony up £2.59 billion.

In both cases, they get all the remaining Shaikan 2C upside and the gas assets for free.

Obviously this is just fag packet stuff and I’m comparing medium/light oil prices with heavy, which isn’t cricket. But even if you discount the implied per barrel prices above further, to account for the quality discount, GKP should still be worth many multiples of today’s pitiful market cap.

IMO

ATB

No harm in grabbing the PDF's detailing all these potentially nepotistic Directorships too.

GKP holders should have a "file" of their own, much like the ones endlessly discussed in committees, over biscuits, between Baghdad and Erbil. If there was ever a route to redress, it would most certainly be pre-requisite to engage both regarding a meeting about having a meeting to form a committee that sets up the necessary committee ??

Hawrami's getting some heat with the Dynasty case. But the outcome is likely to be water off a Doc's back, if history repeats. Unless someone wants to come out on GKP's behalf, with evidence, and categorically accuse the KRG of the same tactics employed against Dynasty, what's to be done?

Are there any members of the BOD, either past or present, who could/would make such an accusation now, without landing themselves in it, for not having taken a stand and calling the KRG out? If any of them were aware of these practises and basically sat back doing nothing about it, aren't they complicit?

Is Garrett Soden the man to approach? Or was his previous departure a sign that he felt, or rather was, powerless to stop any corruption?

I'd love to know what exactly what our UK MPs role in all of this was. If any evidence of wrong doing came to light, would getting his name plastered all over the UK press for enriching himself at UK taxpayers' expense whilst enabling a corrupt Kurdish regime to do financial harm to the same taxpayers, help? Both getting the UK tax payer to pay his stables' electricity bill then claiming it was a mistake, AND being an advisor prior to the Afren wipeout, don’t appear to have done his rep any harm. Would any mud stick if he was adversely involved in the outcome of GKP?

TK's still not in the clear yet mind. He's facing charges for the methods he employed during his divorce, to keep Ashley Kozel from getting "her" half of the $100m worth of GKP shares that Gokana sold. There's evidence proving that TK was Gokana and the Florida Judge who ruled against him wasn't complementary about his corporate ethics - "the former husband disguises his misconduct by using the trust, and the shell entities created by the trust's agents and lawyers, as his alter ego." There may also be proof that he was behind the pump and dump. But again, what's to be done? Go after him in the courts? Or wait for Ashley to do it, then wipe the smile of her face for having the cheek to think she's got any right to live off the proceeds of crimes against GKP shareholders?

https://www.flprobatelitigation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/206/2016/11/Willful-Fraud-by-Lawyer-Results-in-Sanctions-Against-Client-_-Daily-Business-Review.pdf

WildRider - thanks for taking the ECL/RPS links further. I'd seen enough at Scott Pickford to know that there were potentially nepotistic links between ERCE and The Doc, but thanks for highlighting the Stafford connection.

Thanks to everyone else too for the useful links and info

Xxxxeye

A while back, I posted an extract from Justice Clerk’s ruling against Excalibur.

It states Hawrami was the Chairman of Exploration Consultants Limited, a company based in Henley, that provided consultancy services to E&Ps. A subsidiary of Exploration Consultants Ltd was used to produce the CPR for GKP’s initial IPO. The Company Memo’s of Association show that GKP Ltd was created out of GKP Algeria Ltd back in May 2004 and that GKP Ltd’s share capital was increased on 23rd July 2004, so I presume the IPO was on, or around, then.

Exploration Consultants Limited was incorporated on 19th December 1989 and is 100% owned by ECL Group Limited, which was set up later and incorporated on 29th September 1995.

The only subsidiary of Exploration Consultants Limited I could find, was a company called Geophysical Safety Resources Ltd, which was incorporated on 30th May 1996.

Hawrami, or rather, Dr Abdullah Abdul-Rahman Abdullah, as he’s known by Companies House, held Directorships in all of the above companies from 15th August 2000 to 30th June 2006, at which point he resigned from them all.

So there’s no doubt that The Doctor played a significant role in the initial IPO CPR.

Equipoise was founded by Don Scott, after the company he founded, Scott Pickford Group was taken over by a company called CoreLab in 1998 (https://www.erce.energy/history).

Hawrami is listed as having been a Director of a company called Scott Pickford Ltd (Co No 02153257) between 8th August 2000 and 30th June 2006. This company started life in August 1987. It was called Helpsquare Ltd back then. It later became Quad Consulting Ltd on 15th January 1991, finally taking the Scott Pickford Ltd name on 15th Jan 2003.

Andrew John Kirchin joined as a Director of Quad Consulting Ltd on 8th Jan 2003. The filings on the Companies House website show that he was also a director at Scott Pickford Group Ltd, Scott Pickford Ltd (Co No 1302137) and Core Laboratories UK Ltd.

Scott Pickford Ltd (Co No 1302137) changed name to Coreton on 3rd Jan 2003 freeing up the Scott Pickford Ltd name, which appears to have then be taken on by Quad Consulting Ltd, shortly after Kirchin’s arrival.

Hawrami was also a director at Quad Consulting when Kirchin arrived.

These are the circumstantial facts available on the Companies House and ERCE websites.

Is there a link between Hawrami, Kirchin, Don Scott and ERCE?

Over to you all for discussion and debate.

p.s. I also noticed that ECL was originall called Daromann Ltd.

Hmmm - Darloman23, are you Ashti in disguise? ;-)

Below is from the Court ruling,

"For the purpose of the IPO Gulf had to produce a “Competent Persons Report”, describing and assessing the company’s assets. The Competent Persons Report was carried out by a subsidiary of Exploration Consultants Limited (“ECL”), a company based in Henley-on-Thames, providing consultancy and operations services (seismic and well site geology) to exploration and production (“E & P”) companies. ECL’s Chairman was Dr Ashti Hawrami (“Dr Hawrami”), an Iraqi Kurd, who was in May 2006 to become the Minister of Natural Resources in the KRG. Gulf continued to use ECL’s services after the listing. Mr Kozel first met Dr Hawrami in 2002 or 20035 ."

No secret that AH was involved in the CPR early on. I vaguely recollect someone posting a link between people at ECL and people at ERC Equipoise back in the day, though to be honest , I can't easily trace those links now, so who knows if it was the case or not?