Member Info for Nobby31

I think a hostile bid or a discrete sale of all or some of the yards is a possibility. I think for this to happen they have to generate a long order book and show consistent ability to deliver on time on budget.
Might make sense for Navantia to come in but its so difficult to read the future with this business. I was encouraged and do expect them to hit £100 million + in 2023. This is great and they are well on the way to that already so I think next year really could be transformative as HARL is becoming more mainstream; this will attract more work and then we can only guess what happens. The main thing is whilst we cannot rule out further raises, the company is unlikely to go bust which was a concern for me a while back. Now, whilst I am way out of the money I am quite optimistic about the coming announcements in Q4 and also Q1 next year

unlikely and unrealistic

I'm currently working on SNS UK gas development projects for new fields coming on stream in 2024/2025. UK gas for UK consumers; lowest environmental footprint, good for employment, taxation and anyone that believes energy security in an uncertain world is pretty important. I don't know how bad it has to get before even the environmentalists understand this is a transition and therefore we need to ensure we have secure and reliable energy supplies to keep the lights on but I do hope we are not in for a cold winter. If we do all the margins will be tested and from what I see and know it is not alarmist to forecast brownouts and blackouts.

Sell it and deliver a double figure dividend please.
No way should it be constructed by anyone other than a big player with experience of these projects

It'll happen when we're least expecting it. Hang tight and ignore the naysayers.
Iamsailing makes some logical and dispassionate points but I think we can look forward to an upturn in this company. Not sure of the magnitude or exactly when but its coming late this year and certainly during 2023.
I'd like to see the AR out asap and also some CEO/CFO share purchases as well. Not ramping, do I ever? Just my thoughts. GLA

Si that wins the “response of the month award”

Only seller with this kind of holding is an II?

What defines an emergency? Aren't we in one yet Stokey12?

With the greatest of respect ……
Blah blah blah - angry dolphins
Blah blah blah - irreparable seabed damage
Blah blah blah - Third World War
Blah blah blah -
Find something worthwhile that’ll really helps us all to bleat about. This isn’t it

Stokey12 we’re pretty used to waiting so another 2-3 months I can live with if that’s what the bureaucrats need

On the assumption of a profit margin of circa 12.5-15% the company is valued at around 1 to 1.5 times earnings. Either we are being sold a pup on the margins or investors are missing a trick. I’m way out of the money which I freely admit but have never sought to ramp so please ignore this post if you’re that way inclined. This Company is significantly undervalued ….. time will tell

The JR is far from the end of the story if for some bizarre reason it is not in favour of the developer.
The impact of this project on the local environment has been hugely overstated by the environmentalists. A single trawler can cause much greater impact to the seabed in a single trip.
The meta data on this is well understood and aside from the saline discharge the project can have a hugely positive impact on the island economy and energy security whether it is natural gas and / or hydrogen based.
The Irish do love a good argument but to ignore the benefits of the storage facility would be doing no favours to anyone including those that decry it’s future

There’s a certain irony in the BOD getting richer as the shareholders get poorer don’t you think?
They need to publicly describe the path to profitability and quickly. Unless it is unknown. Breakeven isn’t enough in this market

Having read all the recent postings I have now convinced myself on the reasons as to why we are where we are. I have taken some soundings from several sources outside of the Company which have helped me with the explanation.

Firstly, there isn't anyone in particular "out to get us" as I am told there is no legal mechanism by which for example out competitors can affect the share price. I have been informed that it is highly unlikely there is any existential threat.
JW hasn't got a lot of experience in a public company and there is no clear picture that he has painted to the shareholders and importantly to our broker of a line of sight (timeline and actions) when the Company will show a profit.
Turnover is going the right way but we will have to show a profitable trajectory in a difficult economic climate with a rapidly growing workforce; I think I read 1100 by year end 2022.
The debt facility we have taken on is not quite in leg breaker territory but nor is it cheap. If we are showing a loss for next year (atm) then another raise in the next 6-12 months is a possibility; he has a lot of "previous" in this respect and no one should be bold enough to read much of substance into the "nothing imminent" comment.
The good news is turnover is increasing and they need to keep winning and announcing contracts. No IIs seem to be selling. To my mind the malaise is caused by retail investors (us) who are in distress not just with HARL but in other areas so have been forced to sell up. This could easily explain the downward pressure on the share price. The omens for me are that I not think we will win the FSS but we will get some tasty morsels as the work will be spread out so still some sizeable contracts in terms of market cap. Also don't expect to get the royal yacht. Storage they definitely have a strategy ie Plan A is to win the JR but I worked on this project a lot of years ago and there are other ways to skin this cat so I do expect results once the direction of travel is clear i.e. post JR. We will have to wait as usual. A business like this sucks up loads of cash but its starting to pour in the door and a couple more chunky wind-farm contracts will see us good. Good weekend to all

Ah well I’ll just have to wait until we win the FSS contract. See if the sellers can keep a lid on that

Consuela, what is your interest in HARL's prospects? Is your beef with the management team i.e. you'd like to see a new one or maybe just to know the storage project will never materialise? Maybe you want HARL to fail as a company but I can't think why as they employ lots of people in different locations and areas of the business that are growing. Just wondered where you stand

Si, I agree with you and suspect most shareholders and observers would do so as well. I wonder if BAe or Babc**k could be indirectly behind this? To suppress the price the MMs who set the bid/offer have to be involved. I am not sure how many MMs are active in HARL but that would be the place to look. I was wondering if we have any AIM market experts that could provide any guidance as to what might be going on? I have thought for sometime that the assets could individually or collectively be worth considerably more to others and also that it is in the interest of others that HARL does not succeed. The longer term implication of a third force in marine and shipbuilding is the last thing certain vested interests (including some contractors) want to see.

BAe and Babc***k are clearly concerned. They can see the future and have put their PR (&lobbying) machines into action.
We could sit tight and keep winning contracts. Our PR machine is only a single cylinder splutterer so best we don’t get into any dirty dishes in public

thank you.
Its all rather late for me so I shall just sit by and wait for the good times to roll. Might seem rather inactive but when your b/e is somewhere closer to those distant galactic shots from the NASA Webb images then its about all you can do!

Could you kindly elaborate when you refer to "shooters"
It has been a rough ride for us LTHs but the fundamental value of the assets is very good; for me it's been about the management getting their act together and the PR / broker doing their job properly. Both have been learning on the job for the past 2-3 years but I think we are getting there. The macro canvas in all the major sectors HARL are targeting (and now known in) could hardly be better with the exception that the overall supply chain is a bit SNAFU. So I think it is now a matter of time before the business comes in and/or the offers for assets materialise. Albeit economic conditions are quite dire and risk off.