Member Info for Nobby31

You prove your lack of knowledge and credibility to everyone yet again on this board. Do you have any conception of what a complete laughing stock you are for the rest of us? It’s hilarious and sad at the same time that such a prolific board hog has little to no understanding of what makes a bankable loan or investment. Keep going and keep us entertained …. sadly we know you will …

Aside from the usual subsurface, facilities and route to market conundrums associated with these developments the number one tricky issue to solve is the electrification of the facility and most likely any third party facility via which the petroleum reaches point of sale. This is capital intensive, technically challenging and to some extent breaking new ground in the UKCS. I hope they got there in the end and will either utilise a transformed power from shore scheme or it’s connecting to a future offshore wind farm which might delay start-up and will still require back-up generation eg biodiesel. I think they’ve worked this very hard now and considered all the options so commercially it’s viable as the new BEIS will not consent ie give FDP unless it’s an integral part of the development plan. GLA

First class ******

The back costs alone on IM are about 75% of the current market cap. Any deal will include a significant proportion of them being reimbursed imo

NI is a political basket case which suckles on the Westminster titty. The politicos are a sham

Taxable profits

We need to be realistic about the finance situation. Personally I think it’s highly unlikely that the Astra deal will provide cheaper finance but it will provide a longer term facility. The macro picture is rather bleak if you’re a larger established entity so for little old us it is going to be costly and as we’ve said this inevitably eats into margins. On the bright side we can look forward to more contract wins as there are so many bids out there in so many sectors. Breakeven is realistic but it’s harder to see how we are going to be profitable for a while

If this isn’t announced by end March I think they have to put out an RNS anyway as it’s into uncharted territory given AB’s November advice. It’s the size of this deal that makes it so difficult so there may be more than one party involved. There are other FO deals and asset sales happening but this is a real biggy. I’ve said before it makes much more sense just to take the Company out with eg a £4-6/share offer which is still risky as it’s all cash up front whereas a FO will be some cash and milestones around FDP, FID … first oil etc. Who knows ….when the bell will toll? GLA all it’s a bit squeaky bum

The next 10 days will be interesting as punters may be enticed back. These are proven reserves of oil and even at a paltry $3/bbl this has very attractive upside. Downside of no deal could take us below £1 but that would be a huge failure and with multiple parties interested there ought to be a solution that works for all. GLA not long to wait now I reckon.

This is a conservative and sensible update.
Imho they don’t want a repeat of 2022 so I’m expecting them to beat the 2023 forecast by some margin.
IM has an assumed zero value which again is conservative; any deal will likely return sunk costs as an absolute minimum (circa £20mm).
Debt an issue but I think manageable if they keep converting all these bids into work which they are definitely getting better at.
Expecting more positive updates soon from H&W team.

I’m of the view that you don’t show your hand before you’re across the line. Stating when a deadline for when deal would be completed sounds risky to me unless the CPs were completely unrelated to the SPA itself but totally related to external consents. The mid March budget is the pinch point I think. GLA

This is all about the debt piece.
The revenue stream looks more and more secure as the clock ticks on and the various markets in which HARL are bidding are imo likely to deliver more work.
Objectively it’s all down to how much the debt costs and the extent to which it eats into the margins. The margins are uncertain as the company hasn’t got a track record yet. There isn’t a queue of lenders out there waiting to offer us their debt facility just yet for this good reason. There’s not much more to it than that. And before any of the folk on here offer their learned opinions on whether that makes me a ramper or deramper (for which I care not) I have been invested here for longer than anyone as a former TR1 diluted by placings.

Wouldn’t it be easier just to do a Victor Kiam? Approach the Board to remove JOG from AIM . The market cap is about £67 million and so a bid of £150 mm ought to do it? Also pick up the tax losses

Absolutely beats me where all the shares sold are coming from recently. Unless there are a large number of forward sold warrants there seems to be a constant supply of stock even though several tens of millions have changed hands in the past 3 weeks. Question for me is have they passed into stickier hands than where they came from in which case you’d think eventually supply would start to dry up some point in the near future.

What are your top 5 stick picks for 2023 Lottie?

UK Gov really screwed us with EPL; made it more confusing and created instability, the scariest thing for investors.
Nonetheless the allowances make it attractive so there must be deal space for those in a high tax paying position over the next few years as it get's built for a fraction of the real cost and the subsurface risk is lower than for other fields. I reckon if it does go ahead we should temper our expectations. I'll be happy with anything over £5. GLA

FFS it’s FSS (smiley face)

It’s weird that all of his recent posts have two “recommends”. I wonder who his acolytes might be ?

Please just get off here. You’re blocking the board up with drivel. And while you’re at it could you seek professional help as it might just do you and the rest of us some good. I’m awfully sorry if that comes across as rude but hopefully you have a little awareness of the value of your postings and know that almost no one is interested in them. Have a good weekend.

Thanks for the post Speedy. It’s a salient reminder of where we stand. Had it been a single yard this would have been a real concern but it was 4 shipyards; a highly ambitious undertaking without doubt. However we are now shareholders, some of us, in the eye of a global reset in supply chain and geopolitical trade and there is little question that a huge amount of onshoring is taking place in the west. I think there already is and will continue to be a lot more in the pipelines that JW used to refer to than even he predicted. If the Company is well run and the brand continues to go from strength to strength then £40 million of losses to get it all well on the way to winning lots of work will soon be a distant memory. It’s why I held on when I was purely there for the storage project. Yes it’s been a long time coming but I think, finally 2023 will be the transition year for this business.