Whilst they are pondering the 23 nautical miles from H&W HQ to IslandMagee I am wondering when are they going to announce they have finally ridded us all of that feckless Chairman? Not a moment too soon if you ask the writer.
Whilst it is not necessarily an RNS event (I believe that it is for obvious reasons), I would relish learning that the credit/debt facility is actually in place whenever this is achieved as it will unburden many of us from the plague for further placements. I'll drink to that news for sure.
Finally, last but not least, it would be helpful to have an RNS that advises all of the process (at high level) the company intends to follow to secure debt providers and capacity customers to ultimately secure FID; this is another confidence boosting request for a note that will encourage all to maintain our enthusiasm for HARL.
C'mon BOD, please keep us in the loop; after all, you wouldn't be here without us !
Thanks for the reply!
I think a properly functioning broker could be doing an awful lot more than they are. Cenkos are a big disappointment.
There has been some entity possibly via an MM seeking this company to fail.
One hopes that a credit facility is now in the offing. No more placings.
FID for the storage project will be end Q1 2022 but they are looking at an embarrassment of riches in selecting the right funding options and the right offtakers between now and then.
I always thought this was worth at least £1 per share but I can now see it could easily be double that.
I've been here since 2008 so seen a lot and have never felt more positive about the company and its opportunity to thrive
I think someone has already suggested that quite recently Stokey12 but it is a very likely outcome unless of course the owner reserves all the capacity for themselves as they may be able to avoid any RTPA obligations
I am more interested in the motivation of an MM to take stock off the market in sizeable amounts then effectively to use it to drive the price down. Why would they do this? Are they acting for someone who does not wish the company to succeed?
I don't understand how they do it but they talk to the other MMs to set the bid -offer and clearly can impact the market
If we get news of the licence awards this week then, irrespective of whether or not a JR occurs, "things" will begin to move very quickly over the next few weeks, not just with the storage project but also with the extra curricular activities as it will leverage the company's ability for debt finance. As they are likely to take another good look at financing options and may revisit the market for long term purchasers of storage capacity I don't expect FID until end March. Whilst this is later than I'd like it is understandable as BOD will want to ensure they are securing the best terms on both sides and they have a world class legal firm in Field Fisher to assist them. Expect some announcements (RNSs) along the way. That aside we can also expect to hear of several contract awards in varying value over the next 6 months; with so many tenders and opportunities some will surely stick and hopefully they will have selected the most profitable ones as I expect some of this work will last years so tieing up yard capacity in the optimal way is now critical as I expect all capacity will be taken up in all facilities by end 2022 or something has not gone right with the strategy. Why anyone would sell shares at this time is confusing to me as the risk seems very assymetric (more upside potential than downside risk) although its been a long journey and lots of us have the scar tissue to prove it. Nonetheless if you are an LTH or not this is a very exciting time for the business and the run up to Christmas will surely deliver us one or two goodies. GLA
Gas is providing over 50% of Uk power requirements this morning. Wind is around 4% of the mix. Having 30-40 GW wouldn’t help on a day like today. It doesn’t matter how many wind turbines you have in these conditions unless you have a resolution to intermittency = storage
Watch this take off once we get over the final regulatory hurdle.
This project will be developed responsibly with the greatest of care for the local environment. I know the people involved and they have a vested interest in protecting the community and ensuring the storage project will be delivered with minimal local impact. I underhand the naysayers but they’ll have to bite the bullet and accept that in a holistic sense this is a benefit to the energy transition which far outweighs the minimal impacts from the brine discharge which will be closely monitored.
Very exciting times ahead for all, we’ve never been in a better place.
https://timera-energy.com/how-the-market-is-pricing-gas-supply-flex/
The BOD know as well as anyone the value of what they are building so I expect they are selling their grannies to load up on shares whilst the day traders and short term inpatient punters are happy with a penny or two here or there!
I agree that at or close to sanction is when most of the risk is reduced but there will hopefully be a number of shareholder rewarding steps on the way to that point in time. They have to review their strategy for how they market the offtake in my opinion. They’ve two experienced individuals to help them do that so I’m not too concerned there. We just have to be a little patient on this. Whilst we are being patient I’m hopeful we may hear about some other contract awards …. for the other side of the business we now own
At last !
Once the licences are confirmed, within the next few days, the only hurdles to unlock the value potential for the storage asset are commercial, not regulatory or technical. I am very surprised the SP didn't experience a greater boost from the RNS yesterday. Perhaps there is a concern about another raise or perhaps most do not understand the way the storage project is valued but either way I had thought if you missed the ML RNS you would have missed the boat to get in at a bargain price. Not the case. Nonetheless once any uncertainty dissipates and the numbers are made clear (it would be helpful to get an updated valuation of IMSL in the interims if possible) then I think investors will flock in. Institutions both energy and financial will be falling over themselves to own capacity and/or equity in this development so careful thought is required to optimise shareholder value. I'm convinced that IMSL impact on SP will dwarf anything else over the next 6 months. 50p or higher by Christmas.
The valuation of an SBU (storage bundled unit) in a gas storage project is driven by the intrinsic (summer/winter spread) and extrinsic (market volatility coupled with the response time of the asset between injection and withdrawal) properties.
Since the negotiations with Vitol commenced and a non-binding offtake agreement was negotiated the market has undergone severe gyrations and there may be aspects of the way the deal has been structured that require revisiting.
If I were in charge right now (assuming there is an affirmative decision on that dastardly and ever distant ML) then I would go back to square one and I’d design an auction process for the initial phase 1 of capacity which included the rights to bid for options on a yet to be publicised phase 2.
There will undoubtedly be a lot of interest and not just from the household names in owning and trading capacity in the primary or secondary markets. If anyone remembers what Vitol did at Humbly Grove (they agreed with Star Energy (Petronas) they signed a 100% offtake agreement then close to start up they flipped all the capacity to Gazprom at a very healthy premium; an auction would limit that risk, leave more value with the owners, perhaps bring in multiple parties and I think is the right way to proceed.
This is on the assumption that, given who the purchasers of capacity will likely be (they’ll need to meet pre qualifying criteria) there will be a sea of financiers looking to lend including the likes of all the current UKCS private equity players like ANCALA, Kellas, NSMP et al. This asset, is on the basis of current energy prices a literal gold mine (not a salt mine) GLA
Lottie I’ve long believed that the company is being targeted in a type of commercial sabotage, possibly, likely by players with vested interests in seeing a potential competitor fail.
The SP has been subject to prolonged selling pressure and where I first thought that someone was using the MMs to stake build that isn’t the case due to the lack of TR1s.
I think we all agree the BOD have at times not covered themselves in glory and indeed made some fundamental faux pas’s along the way in a “young” company and therefore the SP reflected that in some way as disillusioned investors sold up but this has felt very different since the Saipem award. I think the only way to arrest this is from substantial contract awards to give HARL “escape velocity” from the clutches of this predator
Thanks Lottie I was rather expecting 3 figures before year end provided the capacity offtake deal is still in the bag and that we get a relatively unfettered decision sometime in October. I think the UK is on the precipice of an energy crisis this winter so the public attention will be drawn towards projects like this one as an investment they might not have otherwise considered given it’s such a niche sector. Hopefully there will be considerable national press and social media coverage. We aren’t the next Tesla but we are becoming much more tangible