The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
They never bought a material number of shares as they understood there would be multiple dilutions. Share options cost them less as if not exercised due to expiring as worthless then no cash from the trouser pockets. Should have seen that myself but I believed contracts were going to be delivered about a year ago. Just added too many too soon so no one else to blame as this in all probability will come good …. and we will see some jam eventually
Read “Unsettled”to understand the context of human forcing vs natural forcings. If you are serious about wanting to understand the science, assumptions and modelling relating to the climate then this book provides you with a good place to start learning if you can be bothered
I think the biggest issues are the cash burn rate (they seem to be recruiting with no guarantee of the large contracts we need) and the lack of information in the form of operational updates being provided to the shareholders that have funded this operation to date. No doubt they are all working hard and no doubt we are all worried mainly because of the lack of communications from the company so I suggest we each request an update in solo and choral terms.
One of the interesting aspect associated with the creation of the caverns is how they are decommissioned once at the end of their useful life. The lease documents from the Crown Estate should deal with how this happens which I think requires them to be filled with seawater.
Also cavern creep will occur after leaching out the saliferous beds (and associated non-soluble strata which drop to the bottom of the cavern during the leaching process) meaning the volumetric(s) and geometry of individual caverns could be quite different as they won't be the same shape.
The case for environmental damage especially to marine life has (of course) been magnified out of all sensible and reasonable proportions by those not wishing the project to proceed. However any macro study of cavern leaching and discharge impacts on the local environments ably demonstrates minimal and only ephemeral impacts on the benthic community. I'm prepared to bet the puffins and porpoises will be completely unaffected.
https://timera-energy.com/impact-of-extreme-volatility-on-energy-trading-businesses/
Thanks Lottie.
There always seems to be a seller!
If someone was building a large position then by now they’d had to have issued a TR1?
I think there could be a seller at any price but I also think the market makers at Cenkos are involved. Difficult to prove but there is little doubt as pointed out about individuals acting ahead of inside information prior to a placing. The Board ought to consider this and investigate it further not least as it is not a one-off occurrence. When you are made “inside” on privileged information you cannot trade however these actions are from those who are given tips by those inside. It’s a disgraceful state of affairs and has lead to many investors having their confidence in the company further dented.
I’m so fed up waiting for news on material new business. It’s been a long time since the various yards were acquired and the millions of pounds of shareholder funds ought to have been turned into new business. COVID is a genuine reason for the delays but now we are beating it back we must expect the Board to deliver a few decent contract wins as the SP needs a big boost. C’mon HARL !
I am hopeful that we can look forward to a rising SP this year. If and when JW announces the outcome of the negotiations with the finance houses and that we have a debt/credit facility in place that will provide confidence to investors. if we don't get that we should all be worried.
Si, beats me I thought they were taking on apprentices and experienced staff to do this sort of work but I am not sure. Either way a good offer to buy one of the yards for cash would still be worth looking at
Given the billions being spent in the next decade or so on these new generation of turbines if I had just won one of these licences I'd be looking to actually buy a yard so I could control the output and work myself. This could de risk the capacity issue and also protect the schedule as well as other financial benefits (not paying high rates as capacity will likely be short). Let's hope if HARL get a good offer for Anish or Methil that we get to hear about it?!
I’m afraid there is a simple explanation for that which is they well understood that there would need to be a series of placings to move the yards towards operational capability; call it inside information if you like.
A sure sign of the positive prospects for HARL would be a meaningful purchase or series of purchase by the key executives. This would likely engender belief that we will win some key business in the near term.
It does not wash with me that they are nearly always in closed periods; there are in fact numerous opportunities during the year to allow them to dip into the pockets we have helped fill.
Consequently I don’t think it unreasonable at these low prices to request they each purchase at least 200,000 each as that approximates to about 3% of their recently published total earnings.
Walk the talk
I wish for ;
1. The debt facility announced. No more dilution now all yards are stated to be operational let’s operate (!) show us the contracts - no more prevarication
2. Realise value from IMSL in H1 no later
3. Change the Board. Give me a functioning, influential, respected Chairman and another independent NED. Not later …. now.
4. Deliver us the contracts, meaningful value multi year and nit requiring a raise to service performance bonds.
5. Watch costs like a hawk. No further recruitment and empire building without new business signed and sealed first.
6. Corporate communications. It’s our Company so tell us what’s going on. We are the ones taking the big risks so treat us fairly and respectfully as shareholders.
I expect the FEED is being reworked to enable the caverns and above ground facilities to be methane and hydrogen compliant. Although why HARL needs to do this when they will not be building it (imo) is unknown.
The project is sufficiently advanced for a farm out or asset sale via a bidding process; there are several interested parties. I just hope that the Board do not delay and think it’s going to add value by gilding the lily. Shell, BP,Macquarie even INEOS can build this; they have the project management expertise and we certainly do not and should not.
Also a large industry player can better address regulatory issues, finance, SNIP reverse flow and Bord Gaia far more effectively.
We should certainly not wait for jam tomorrow on this project not least as it’s been a long time in the oven
Sadly there remains little or no conviction in this share by any major shareholders. I agree that institutional interest is the way forward. Only the Board of Directors can change this. They know what the key things are that they need to do.
In my experience it is always good practice to check with the other party the content of an RNS when a contractual arrangement has been concluded. It’s a courtesy and also common sense given the statement is being made public.
I am very disappointed to read what has occurred surrounding the RNLI dealings and as a significant shareholder I look forward to receiving a clear and transparent account of precisely what has occurred. I would hope the Board of Directors of HARL are reading and understanding the righteous concerns of many of its shareholders and that it takes expeditious action to let us know about recent events. I’m even more concerned to learn about the deletion of a tweet. After the corrupted presentation debacle concerning the Triumph LOI earlier this year I’m afraid this smacks of mismanagement but hopefully nothing worse.
It’s not unreasonable to expect that we won’t see any further demands for new shareholder funds via placings given this credit facility is either already in place or being concluded against the backdrop of an ever increasing order book and tangible cash flow from contract wins
I think we need to know what Cenkos are up to?
There is enough material for them to issue a note (I think the last one was in July) which justifies a re rating on this share. A lot has happened with the DAERA news and Appledore awards plus wider developments in the markets in which HARL are active.
HARL Board have not had a lot of help from Cenkos or for that matter from a lot of other key areas they need support from other than warm words.
It is great to see some momentum trades at last as the realisation is setting in about the value this company is going to deliver the the UK economy. Time to tell family and friends to look under the cushions on the sofa methinks ......
SNIP has a forward flow (GB to NI) of 8.08mcmd and has been pointed out only a netting off ie virtual reverse flow until the AGI is installed to physically reverse flow which is a no brained and will happen albeit Mutual Energy will require various consents but this has been studied in detail over the past few years.
Like the FEED for IMSL the H2 question means reviewing and redesigning certain aspects of the project needs to occur. The engineering studies may already have kicked off for all I know but I reckon all this plant and equipment will need to be H2 compliant.
IMSL can operate as is but the value to the GB market of physical reverse flowing into GB is significant. There’s no reason why this could not be even greater than the 8.08mcmd if sufficient compression (using green electricity) is installed.
Agreed a 2.5/3 year project. But with all the PE money around right now for infrastructure investment it is a very investable project
Whilst they are pondering the 23 nautical miles from H&W HQ to IslandMagee I am wondering when are they going to announce they have finally ridded us all of that feckless Chairman? Not a moment too soon if you ask the writer.
Whilst it is not necessarily an RNS event (I believe that it is for obvious reasons), I would relish learning that the credit/debt facility is actually in place whenever this is achieved as it will unburden many of us from the plague for further placements. I'll drink to that news for sure.
Finally, last but not least, it would be helpful to have an RNS that advises all of the process (at high level) the company intends to follow to secure debt providers and capacity customers to ultimately secure FID; this is another confidence boosting request for a note that will encourage all to maintain our enthusiasm for HARL.
C'mon BOD, please keep us in the loop; after all, you wouldn't be here without us !
Thanks for the reply!
I think a properly functioning broker could be doing an awful lot more than they are. Cenkos are a big disappointment.
There has been some entity possibly via an MM seeking this company to fail.
One hopes that a credit facility is now in the offing. No more placings.
FID for the storage project will be end Q1 2022 but they are looking at an embarrassment of riches in selecting the right funding options and the right offtakers between now and then.
I always thought this was worth at least £1 per share but I can now see it could easily be double that.
I've been here since 2008 so seen a lot and have never felt more positive about the company and its opportunity to thrive