Member Info for NigeCo

A RNS announcement regarding a purchase of CH4 may well put 20-30% on this undervalued share price. Failing that a good Q3 report may give confidence to the market, any confirmation of the proposed 3.3p dividend would also help sentiment IMHO. @203p ITV are cheap, and must look very attractive to a potential predator, but I thought the same @130p.

"but for the life of me I cannot work out what LGs gain is from consistently holding such a large stake. Because it would seem not a great capital investment at current levels with no returns for a couple of years !!"

JG68, from my analysis Liberty's ITV shareholding owes them in the region of 120p per share, maybe lower after loaning out their near 10% holding to Goldman Sachs. This agreement has now expired and LG have now full ownership of the 9.95% holding. Yes you're right LG have been linked with a takeover of ITV ever since they purchased their initial 6.4% holding from BskyB in July 2014. There is a reason why they still hold the shares, we just don't know the reason yet.

I'm currently lost for words as to why the ITV share price is so weak with advertising rebounding very strongly. I'm optimistic that 2021 advertising revenue could be up 10% on 2019 results, that could be a record. ?H1 results net debt dropped by £78m to £467m. And cash in the bank of £448m. IMHO, ITV are in a healthier position coming out of the pandemic than in 2019. Why the share price is trading down at 103p I just can't explain. Let's hope that Q3 results reassures the market.

"Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 72% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for BT Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation."

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/telecom/lse-bt.a/bt-group-shares/news/what-does-bt-group-plcs-lonbta-share-price-indicate

"Nige. What makes you so sure that Liberty is the only game in town?"

3card, I just think that Liberty are the favourites in pole position with their already 9.9% shareholding, not forgetting that they recently recalled their loaned out shares from Goldman Sachs.

"Liberty aren't going to buy now when they could have pounced at a much lower price last year imo."

That's a fair point JG68, I suppose most if not all of us have thought that since the low of 50p through the pandemic. I've come to the conclusion that any interested parties I suspect know that they would be wasting their time with a very low-ball offer of say 100p, when the ITV share price was down at 50p. Management and shareholders would rightfully dismiss such a derisory offer. I'm also thinking that it makes no difference what the share price is, management will know or will employ advisors to value the business. IMO, FWIW, I don't think that the BOD would entertain any offer below 180p. Of cause low-ball offers can be put forward, but unlikely to be successful in my honest opinion. Just one other point Liberty Global have history on their side for playing the long game, but also for not overpaying for acquisitions.

It will be interesting to see if The Times article has the opposite effect as the Telegraph article had last weekend on next weeks BT share price.

Rock........ "I firmly believe that no one can keep this share price down indefinitely? - even JM. So it either gets bought or rises under its own steam. The real question to answer is why are we at this price point now?

Agreed, ITV came out with slightly better H1 results than 2019, yet the share price dropped. In hindsight our CEO & CFO should have talked up the rest of the year instead of being too cautious with their glass half full attitude, this affected confidence in the market, and a weak share price of 105p, when it could have been in the 150p range with the right positive attitude. IMO.

Rock..... "Remember the business is flying way ahead of pre-covid numbers!"

Agreed Rock, advertising could be at a record high for ITV this year. I'm lost for words why the share price is on it's knees at only 105p.

Rock.... "It’s probably a ‘red herring’ now as I strongly suspect the Channel 4 decision will be pushed into the long grass - maybe 2022? I don’t think ITV will still be independent by then. Just IMO."

Rock, so you think that something will happen this year? Any reason for this? Apart from a very weak share price.

I was told of a rumour earlier this year from a retired ex ITV worker who still keeps in touch with ex colleagues. Nothing came of it in the end. I do believe that ITV will go one day, I just don't when that day will be.

That's what I was indicating, there is a reason why LG are pushing for ITV & CH4 tie up. What is LG's end game? Knowing John Malone he will want a good deal around 180p, he never over pays for anything.

"July 2021 Liberty Global lobby UK Government to allow a merger between ITV and Channel 4 should the Government decide in favour of Privatisation."

What's in it for Liberty? Should ITV acquire CH4.

Aviduser, what valuation would you put on CH4? My stab in the dark would be around £800m.

"BH ITV taking over Chan 4 is the best option for the long term of that chan. Others sky discovery could afford it but harder to see how it aligns with their existing business. ITV is used to dealing with OFCOM and their public obligation remits."

Aviduser, I have said the same thing previously, if there is a potential ITV predator waiting in the wings, are they waiting for ITV to take CH4 first. My only worry is that the government won't allow it because they would have 70% of the advertising market. On the other hand maybe the government would prefer ITV to acquire it than anyone else. I thought that a decision would have been made before now regarding CH4.

Does anyone think the planned restart of proposed based 7.7p annual dividend for next year, may be delayed again due to higher interest rates coming along and bt not wanting to pver levererage itself with all the investment it is putting into full fibre?

IMO, CEO Jansen will not want to disappoint the market and shareholders further by delaying the return of the reduced dividend of 7.7p per year. He will deliver on his promise.

"With ITV there is also the excessive time showing adverts saying how wonderful our Banks and electric cars are. Not to mention begging for money or telling Women how to hide being incontinent. Great fun all round."

Ironknut, I would have thought that more adverts is good for ITV? This shows that ITV have demand for advertising.

"Viewing to ITV like the BBC is 25% down year on year."

Maybe lockdown played a big part?

BielsaBall2021......... "If ITV were to acquire CH4 I would expect a re rating of the share price of 160p - 180p with ITV taking 70% of the advertising market"

You may well be right if ITV are aloud to purchase CH4, plus not over pay. This maybe the catalyst ITV needs for a re rating of the depressed share price. This may be the reason why the BOD decided against paying a dividend over the pandemic months to help fund a purchase of CH4.

"This decline will likely outrage Patrick Drahi, the company’s biggest shareholder. As such, there is a high likelihood that he will intensify its talks with the management. He could also encourage the firm to break itself up or even to explore strategic options."

https://www.investingcube.com/heres-why-the-bt-share-price-collapsed-to-a-6-month-low-shares/

ITV 2021 financial results are IMHO going to beat 2014 results when the share price ranged from 179p to 276p. So not the dog that some would have us believe. Priced on sale today at only 104p, ITV are a bargain, at some point the market will agree, I will ride this out until the share price recovers to at least my fair value price.

Algo trades are in control of the share price. A relative low amount of shares traded in small trades is manipulating this share price. IMO. I hope that the reason behind this is a takeover bid, but I won't hold my breath on that. Take a look below at my earlier post regarding the share price movements over the month of September.

Taking a look at the share price performance of ITV over the past month of September. Share price started at 115.80p closed at 106.60p. Down 9.20p. FTSE100 was down 39 points over the month.

Out of 22 trading days the share price went up on only 5 days and down 17 days.

Total up days 5..... +7.75p
Total down days 17.... -16.95p