Member Info for NickE

I've held for about six months and really pleased to see such an encouraging trading update. The foundations are there to have an excellent 2020. The stock seems 'under the radar' for investors but I recall Pilat Media was very low profile and then tripled before their takeover. Hopefully STAR can do more than triple over the next year or two given the absurdly low m/cap of 4.3m. That could happen short-term with a decent contract or two or longer-term through consistent and gradual improvement of the numbers.

I had hoped for some larger announced contracts for Lockies this year, but with 500 existing sales and the Russian Railways legislation change then 2020 could be an excellent year for this product and likewise with Zero and Bosch. I wonder if we will get another Michael Rosenburg interview on Proactive. The last one was good and STAR do need to give themselves a bit more visibility in the investment community.

Today will be a good test of PJ's theory. It's not the news that most shareholders wanted to hear: licensing talks for MED100 off until successful completion of phase 3, still looking for a CSD100 licensee, pain relief in limbo until UK regulatory authorisation is received and funding being currently sought.

So, on the face of it, not good news so most would expect a drop. That said, if a price for the currently sought funding has already been provisionally agreed then the share price might be stable. The news today for the wider investment community might already be in the price. Today's share price action will definitely be interesting in terms of looking at PJ's clear investment analysis, that is downtrend already completed and uptrend commenced.

Chartist, you say you feel sorry for me and 'my club' . Firstly, as I have just posted, I don't hold and, secondly, who is my club? I am a Bristol City supporter so you might feel sorry for 'my club' for messing up on potential promotion last year but in the context of N4P I am not and never have been a member of any 'club'. Thank-you for thinking of me but I suspect based on your previous posts it was just a silly comment. Full marks for consistency though.

Chartist2, I also feel sorry for holders. I sold some time back but didn't want to be negative on a stock I no longer held hence I just haven't posted since. Anyway, since you asked I will post what I perceive to be the pros and cons.

Reason for selling:-

Nuvec development is very early stage compared to the timescale Nigel Theobald depicted in the November presentation. Subsequent news releases backtrack on that presentation and I didn't like that. I didn't feel Sildenafil is their best reformulation product and had concerns about the bioequivalence claims. Actually my basis for investment was more a case of liking Nuvec prospects more than Sildenafil but the latter added balance and helped the risk / reward.

Secondly the IPO document suggests some issues about patents regarding Nuvec. It's usually a process of narrowing down but it would be good to see clarification from NT. I did ask some queries in an email and didn't hear back from Nigel.

Lastly, some of the large holders are no longer locked in from this month and I felt there might be a placing to take Sildenafil through with higher royalties after self-funding phase 2 / 3 trials. I didn't envisage Sildenafil wouldn't pass this trial though.

The positives:-

it's probably not a major issue to tweak things and eventually get Sildenafil through the PK trials. It shouldn't be too costly either. There are only 12 participants. My preference is they run with one of their other reformulations. I think two have a bigger potential market size and have more medical need. They would have to do a funding though for that.

If N4P just run with Sildenafil and do some tweaking to get through the PH trial then N4P have funds until next year because of the warrants exercised earlier that bought in about 800k.

Always a chance of another early stage Nuvec deal. It will be early stage development though and not the sort of deal that will fund the Company and that contrasts with how NT presented things in his November presentation.

I don't have a position and probably view it more of a trading stock until I can see some prospect of accelerating progress with Nuvec. There is also a credibility issue in that I don't feel NT sufficiently flagged up the risk with the Sildenafil study so that has a knock on effect on credibility for his statements in general and specifically any Nuvec studies. Hugh presented it almost as a given it would pass and, given he has flagged up he speaks regularly with NT, then I don't blame him.

I can see Nuvec will have a greater degree of difficulty and much longer timeframe than Nigel intimated last November. If it works though and they can get deals that validate that prospect then N4P is still that elusive ten bagger. Just somewhat more riskier than I originally perceived based on Nigel's November presentation.

A lot of Trump's actions will be to retain a majority in Congress and the Senate in order to prevent any investigations that could lead to impeachment. I heard one plausible reason on the radio that Trump withdrew from the Iran deal primarily to win the high turn out Jewish vote that will be decisive in marginals. The bigger picture is that WSG with a contract in place should be one of the SME players to get European support to show Iran that Europe can implement practical actions as well as words of support for the nuclear deal.

Interesting interview H&N. Mogherini is impressive and determined on this issue. From 21.45 in your link "Most of all I think we can do a lot with small and medium enterprises...potentially a huge field for development for the economy and job creation in Iran". Talks about supporting small to medium enterprises and the role of the European Investment Bank.

You can always tell the ones that have sold and its embarrassingly obvious. Presumably carpking has moved into his favourite high risk oil stock . That's fine as we all making buying and selling decisions but I wish people wouldn't be so classless or shameless and either remain quiet or be transparent. I think WSG looks a solid hold given the increase in SL flights, the pipeline outside of Iran, the extension of the loan notes and the more than decent chance of a 24m per annum 15 year contract pushing through in the coming weeks or months. Any positive news on Europe standing firm and implementing measures to protect European firms should see the stock trend back up to 20p pre contract exchange. A signed contract with commencement dates could see anywhere between 50p and 100p so whether the stock price slips a penny or trends up a bit in the absence of news isn't overly irrelevant to non traders.

Good detailed and transparent report. As bamb says it was good to hear the contract is for 15 years as that figure wasn't mentioned in the last rns. Another managed services contract in the offing (no guessing on location allowed!) and a very positive statement :- 'Our business is set to benefit from unprecedented growth opportunities, particularly with our airport security operations, and it is essential we have the right strategies, people, processes and systems in place to successfully deliver such growth. Accordingly, the changes we have made to date and intend to make over the coming months will, I believe, serve the Company well and greatly assist our planned growth. Business Outlook Our business is now in a better position than it has been for some time in terms of management, structure, revenues and prospects.'

The travel business is worth circa 6m which is slightly less than the current debt. It's a decent enough profitable little business doing well in this financial year:- " Meanwhile trading for the (Travel) Division for the first fiscal quarter is significantly ahead of the same period last year - unaudited First Quarter Gross sales are up 15%, Commission is up 10%, with the difference largely accounted for by a change in sales mix." Sensibly imo MIN have decided to structure themselves as a debt free business and just retain the Crete land asset worth a multiple of their current m/cap. The outlook for commercial and residential property in Greece is good for this year and improving. I assume MIN will get a partner but, subject to permission, they could sell it outright. I suspect though it will be a partnership and a less than 50% sale of their stake. With the land with planning permission being valued at 100m with planning permission in 2011 it will be interesting to see what the current value is now.

All rather irrelevant aside from the published facts that the travel business is profitable and they will be selling it for an amount that pretty much clears debts. The bigger picture is that MIN will, as it stands, will be almost debt free post the travel business sale with an asset (with with irreversible planning permission and interested parties) worth between circa �60m and �100m (2011 valuation). Current market cap 14.5m. With Greece economy recovering and set for growth of 2.6% this year and commercial and residential property prices increasing then the current valuation gives potential for a very significant uplift - particularly after the travel business sale is completed when I envisage there will be news about partners etc.

The Iranian contract is quoted in Euros and we now know why. I doubt if WSG has any significant business with Saudi and as WSG have structured arrangements to be compliant even before the lifting the sanctions in 2015 then that bodes well. Besides, the initial 24m Euro multi year contract with subsequent phases for up to 60 airports compensates just a tad for any loss of the odd scanner sale or two to Saudi or Israel in the unlikely event that were to happen.

Humanbait, that's a particularly good point about companies with existing business and contracts being protected. Also, the main European trading countries with Iran - Germany, France and to a lesser extent the UK have such deep financial interests in maintaining existing trade with Iran and growing it. It's clear that WSG have initiated their German subsidiaries because some German investment banks are inclined to lend with little U.S. business. In that case they should be okay. Europe in general will be looking at other options as well :- Anyway, some links on the financing side :- https://financialtribune.com/articles/economy-business-and-markets/86191/china-to-be-major-beneficiary-of-us-iran-nuclear-deal Europe is weighing ways of putting its money where its mouth is by attempting to shield European companies from potential US punitive action. One possibility would be to use alternative Chinese financial networks. https://financialtribune.com/articles/economy-domestic-economy/86184/france-vows-pushback-against-us-sanctions-on-iran It�s time European countries opened their eyes, Le Maire said on Europe 1 radio. Europe needs new 'financial instruments allowing it to be independent from the United States' The other factor is that WSG services are exempt of sanctions and it would be perverse if the U.S. objected to airport security being upgraded by a British Company in a country they perceive as a threat. Logic should mean the U.S. should welcome that but Trump really doesn't do 'logic'. I'd envisage that argument would be made specifically for WSG by the leading UK politicians who have helped get this deal to the stage it is at. It's important for the Brexiteers like Boris Johnson and Liam Fox to justify their stance by delivering exactly the sort of deals outside the EU that WSG have done - albeit a deal / contract on hold at present. This should get sorted out in a way that allows WSG to proceed. The results statement will be interesting and I'd hope and expect WSG are anticipating more tech contracts like the recent 4.5 vehicle scanner deal and, even better, perhaps news on a managed services contract or two. The situation here for WSG is a financially stable company breaking into profitability on SL and other deals that just about justifies the market cap but with upside potential (with a signed contract) for 60 airports in Iran and recurring income managed services contracts elsewhere. A more than decent risk / reward in my view.

earthling, yes, my comment ( ' current business is blossoming') is mainly based on a substantial increase in flights / traffic in SL and, to a lesser extent, the 4.5m tech supply contract. I am hopeful for more of the latter and anticipate WSG moving into ebitda profitability this year and perhaps they are already there now on a month by month basis. I think eskers, gibbo and others have been less lazy than me and have done revenue estimates on the likely revenue upturn from SL alone. SL has very decent margins and that's the bonus trade off for going into these difficult locations. Nothing earth shattering but enough to give the current valuation a reasonable under-pinning with very little factored in for what amounts to a signed contract to provide security for Iran's main international airport plus 59 others in phases over time. I just think it's a highly compelling risk / reward at the current m/cap while we await Iranian developments - especially as my best guess is that the loan notes will be rolled over perhaps with a slightly cheaper conversion price. Anyway, not long to wait for more details on the 26th with an outside chance of other updates prior to that.

Good link. Too many vested big business interests so the European powers that be will be looking to protect firms that trade with Iran. Also there will be lobbying in the U.S. and especially for the Boeing's $20-billion deal to sell jets to Iran Air. It now becomes clear why WSG set up the German subsidiary because even when the U.S. was signed up to the nuclear agreement, British banks were unwilling to lend for trade deals with Iran. That's not the case with the German investment banks. Meanwhile whilst awaiting developments the existing business is increasingly under-pinned by the upturn in SL traffic and the likes of the 4.5m contract. I am hopeful there will be some more of these types fo contracts. With hindsight it's not clear it had to be a country like Iran because, realistically, 15m market cap WSG isn't going to get contracts aside from conflict and strife locations. The fact is though that the Company is sitting on a contract for an initial major airport with a potential phased roll out for 59 others. When the powers that be see sense and pave the way and the sign off is complete then the upside is phenomenal with very little factored in given the existing business is blossoming and to a certain extent under-pinning the valuation. Current Trump issues aside it is an excellent prospect to be doing business with over the long-term. It's not an Arabic country and not part of the Arab League, a population of 80m and a large % under the age of 30 and relatively westernised. Quite a lot of internal conflicts between the religious leaders and the predominantly secular population who are probably more westernise than any other part of the ME. Trump obviously thinks he can do a North Korea but that was mainly China's influence and he's too dim to realise Iran is very different. If loss of face can be saved on both sides then I can see a slightly revised agreement with Trump claiming it as the greatest agreement ever. It's mainly about his ego. I bet all other WSG holders, like me, wish Clinton had scraped through. Meanwhile the European and political lobbyists may well come up with something that protects businesses trading with Iran. I am confident WSG will have been aware that this scenario could arise and will have selected their supply chain accordingly but, regardless, they have to check thoroughly that all are on board. I've heard 'may take a week, may take a month' to assess but, given the strength of the existing business and the relatively low m/cap it looks an incrediblly good risk /reward. 60 airports that desperately need security upgrading says it all.

"Assuming success it would then be our intention then either to partner with a large pharmaceutical company to complete the pivotal trial (thereby earning a licence fee and generating milestone payments for the Group) or to explore the possibility of conducting the pivotal trial ourselves and, in doing so, assess the balance of increased capital risk versus the rewards relative to a company of our size." This will be NT's dilemma :- 'Assuming success it would then be our intention then either to partner with a large pharmaceutical company to complete the pivotal trial (thereby earning a licence fee and generating milestone payments for the Group) or to explore the possibility of conducting the pivotal trial ourselves and, in doing so, assess the balance of increased capital risk versus the rewards relative to a company of our size.' If N4P were just a one product company then I'd favour holding out for a bigger royalty for Sildenafil and go it alone, however, since Sildenafil isn't even the biggest market N4P prospect I'd love to see an early deal. That would set the Company up for accelerating the other generics development as well as Nuvec and set the Company up nicely. The shares would react very favourably I think. Unless he has changed his mind, however, NT favours going it alone if the backing is there.

Yes, fair point about the warrants and the initial costs of getting the other generics up and running are very low. I still wouldn't be averse to them raising say 2m at 20p or higher to accelerate things as long as it would be with sticky institutions. I am sure there would be demand as well and there really isn't any need for a company like N4p to use the Beaufort type of funders. It would be good to see all the warrants exercised. Only a proportion will sell stock to take up the warrants but, nonetheless, some will do and it can act as a slight brake on any uplift. Anyway, we'll get the definitive answer when Nigel and co. reveal the budget and strategy. I haven't checked the exact wording but I think it was synonymous with soon.

Hugh, that's not what NT says. I think the best way forward is they raise after what should be successful Sildenafil results at a higher price. They will not be able to fund Sildenafil through to commercialisation and the other generics with existing resources. Nigel has said as much very clearly solely about Sildenafil in the Nov presentation. They either go with a partner for 5% or so royalties or get 10% royalties if they fund themselves through clinical trials. He favoured the latter and said they would come back to shareholders post the initial trial if successful. N4P is remarkably low cash burn compared to other pharmas with lesser prospects and smaller markets but nonetheless they will need a bit for Sildenafil and the other generics.

Good solid results with low cash burn and the prospect of further collaborations for Nuvec flagged up. I am pleased that the other pipeline generic projects are going to be developed soon. It appears they intend to raise funds and, if so, they should be able to get a funding away at a decent price and around current levels. Alternatively, they could leave any funding until after the Sildenafil results which should be successful and give the share price a boost in addition to the option of an early licensing deal that would fund the other projects. Nigel's preference, however, is to license out after internally funded phase 3 completion for double digit royalties so I don't envisage an early licensing deal. If they could get a good upfront payment and say an 8% royalty deal after current Sildenafil trial results that would be my preference as it would fund the other products including Nuvec development without dilution. They have, however, used the word 'shortly' in terms of having the budget to develop the other products and Nuvec so I think an early Sildenafil licensing deal can be discounted. . They may well raise enough so they don't have to come back for the self funded Sildenafil development and I hope they opt for that. Getting the other products up and running spreads / reduces the investment risk and follows the low cost and low risk model that NT has established :- " In parallel, we hope shortly to have a plan and budget in place for our pipeline of other generic products which also seek to address potential multi-billion dollar markets whilst, as detailed above, setting out a programme for our vaccine work." I see this as a two year investment and find the low cost / low risk / multi product business model a rare and appealing prospect.

The link is Construction and projects in Nigeria: overview:- https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/8-574-5166?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1

https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/8-574-5166?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1