Member Info for Nickderby

Currently, I make it roughly -
Buys - 510k
Sells - 351k

Down 2.1%. Strange as usual...

A reminder of the latest broker targets. SP Angel - target 87p. This is based on FeV prices of $75 per kg for 2019,2020 and a long term price of just $45 per kg. https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Q4_Sales_EBITDA.pdf ARC - target 50p. This is based on FeV prices of: $80 per kg in 2019, $70 per kg in 2020, $60 per kg in 2021 and long term prices of $45 per kg. However, their target share price increases to £1.36 at an FeV price of $100 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14. Using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $100 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £2.23. http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Vanadium-strength-drives-sharp-earnings-growth.pdf Fortune Mojapelo ‘The story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told’. An excellent 2019 coming up! :)

Can't buy any now at 35p!

35p to buy.

Thanks TT, they certainly look more reasonable. Although your 40% reduction effectively allows a 12% reduction for depreciation, as interest is virtually nil. That would be some capital investment when you consider plant is depreciated over 15 to 20 years! Anyway, even your EPS of 5.72 and a PE ratio of 20 would give us a share price of around 115p solely for Vametco on low production. Seems a decent starting target :)

Even with 2018’s low production/sales of just over 2,500 tonnes Vametco generated $108m Ebitda. Impressive! 2019 - Just consider achieving production of 3,400 tonnes, which is still around 10% under maximum capacity, and average FeV prices of say $100 per kg. As soon as Chinese New Year is over FeV will almost certainly rise from current levels due to the huge structural deficit, so $100 per kg seems reasonably conservative. They are currently over $90 per kg in the US where 60 % of our goods are exported, so it certainly isn’t too much of a stretch. Total costs for 2018 were around $33 per kg. These should reduce further with higher production, but I will leave these as they are for the purposes of this calculation. Under this scenario Vametco would generate $228m Ebitda! That would give an EPS of around 8p for 2019, giving us a forward PE of 4.4. That’s crazily low for a growth company. Quite impressive, especially when you consider the company is targeting production levels of over 10,000 tonnes pa in the medium term. Plus everything else we have! Imo, 2019 is looking rather exciting... DYOR of course :)

TT - just noticed your EPS estimate for 2018. I think this may need reviewing. According to the H1 accounts, EPS for the first 6 months was 1.14. As H2 was significantly better, I believe the EPS for 2018 will be nearer 3.4p.

TT - If we take SP Angel’s 2019 post tax profits forecast of $109.2m, that would give BMN post tax profits of £62.16m for 2019. EPS of 5.5p. At the current price of 35.5p, that gives a future PE ratio of 6.3. Plenty of upside to that PE level and profitability when you consider what’s happening in the vanadium market and the news we have to come over the next few weeks/months. SP Angel are using conservative FeV prices of $75 per kg for 2019 and 2020 and long term forecasts of $45 per kg. I think these will be easily beaten with the current structural deficit. Imo, still huge upside here :)

Totaltrader, I think you’re being rather pessimistic about the reduction to get from Ebitda to post tax profits. Corporation tax rate in SA is 28%. Depreciation and interest for 2018 will be about £1.5m. I would stick to your 33% for 2019, which already seems very conservative. Also, the FeV price will be much higher than last year’s average. Bear in mind that it is starting from a much higher base and the structural deficit is getting worse for the next few years. It’s already over $90 per kg in the US where 60% of our goods are exported and will almost certainly increase further after the Chinese New Year is over. Just my thoughts :)

Thanks Nick, I suppose that could be the explanation, assuming that it took 60 minutes to complete the transaction.

After 14 buys this morning and being 0.25p up, the SP suddenly dropped by 0.5p and went negative.
I expected a sell to show up around 8.30am, but nothing.

Strange, manipulation?

DBB, don't do it! :)

Oh thank god. I've been chatting with a shorting imbecile on a d v f n.
That Plat Hunter is really so thick.

Don't bother going over there, its such a low quality site.

No delay on a 169k sell.
Usual tactics!

Buy 35.7p
Sell 35.55p

Oops, they've run out of shares at 36p now :)

Can't buy any online at 35.5p.
We're moving back up :)

There is a 150k trade at 35.1p going to pop up at 3.31pm .
Just to confirm it is a buy :)

The last 20 trades are 19 buys and one sell.
During this period - buys 244k, sells 17k

Well I'm still buying at these bargain levels.
Selling a few FTSE shares that have been on a good run and putting the funds into 'cash elephant' Bushy

Anyone want to join me.... :)